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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#221

Post by CydeWeys »

easytiger wrote: post #196
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it comes to these estimates, the WHO seem to be really bad at their job. But the reality now is that no matter what the estimated CFR is, Covid-19 guarantees that without containment there will be significantly more people in need of hospital care than there will be beds and support staff. And that will affect the final mortality rate, and push it higher than a normal flu season.

> and push it higher than a normal flu season. last major flu season in Italy killed 24k people. We didn't immolate the global economy as a result

And COVID-19 is on track to kill way more than that in less time. So what's your point?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#222

Post by fhars »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #65
username90 wrote: post #12

"Everyone we found to have Covid-19 had serious symptoms, so we don't want to waste money testing you if you don't!" I feel this is a trillion dollar mistake, testing more aggressively like South Korea means that you don't have to deploy the army and quarantine people. I had mild symptoms and they refused to test me, what am I to do? Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? I could work from home, but…

System is overwhelmed, can't really blame anyone since maintaining such, ready to spring, system would cost a lot of money. In an ideal world a drone would come and take your temp and then drop food supplies etc etc. But I'm wondering...if we all are going to get infected (40-80%) wouldn't it better to choose the time? Early on you get all the benefits, 3 weeks later you are lucky to have someone measure your temp. O…

Three weeks later you will most likely still be in ICU if you have a severe case. It is better to catch it six or twelve months later when the first peak is over and treatment options may be better.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#223

Post by throwaway286 »

robbiep wrote: post #214
rickyc091 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's useless in the sense that you can still contract the virus with a mask. Let's say they are using the surgeon's mask, someone can sneeze and it can get in through the side. The n95 has a better seal so that can prevent it, but what if someone sneezes and it gets into your eye. I would say some protection is better than nothing, but don't assume you will be protected from coronavirus 100%.

No! It’s bloody useless because you’re not just receiving it through your respiratory passage, but also eyes. And then you touch a surface which someone has put bodily fluids on and put your fingers in your mouth or rub your eyes. Masks are excellent for stopping transmission for infectious patients however - because it catches particulates. Current (and to be fair, there remains some debate but it seems it is really…

If I accept your argument that a mask doesn't stop you from receiving it (which I doubt):

If it were a social norm to wear a mask during an outbreak, and 50% of the population did, it would reduce the spread of the virus greatly. Far from bloody useless. Americans are locked into individualistic thinking: "How will this benefit me?". Also consider asymptomatic transmission.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#224

Post by thu2111 »

hellofunk wrote: post #66
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

It’s already proven not to be a dud — healthcare systems stretched to beyond 200% capacity is solid evidence of something no one has seen in recent memory. When youngish healthcare workers are dying, something is going on.

Where did you get that number from?

A report from Lombardy yesterday says so far everyone with any reasonable chance of recovery has been treated:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

As far as I can tell so far, no hospital systems have collapsed due to this, even in the most extreme hot zones. The fear is that they will, and that sounds totally reasonable. But we also are basing that fear on data that's not robust. So we don't really know yet what will happen.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#225

Post by beatgammit »

arthur5005 wrote: post #78
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

This is my biggest concern. I don’t even think this is “the big one”

Oh, it's absolutely not "the big one", which is why I'm so frustrated at all of the panic buying. It was pretty clear early on that this isn't that deadly and that the main issue with it is filling up hospitals. We later learned that the whole process from infection to recovery (well, enough to be released from a hospital) is about 2 weeks, maybe less.

This isn't some society-collapsing event, but it does require containment so our medical infrastructure doesn't get overwhelmed. If you get it, you'll most likely live, even without medical attention.

That being said, we do need to treat it seriously. It isn't just a dress rehearsal for something worse, but it is telling in how people react. I'm worried about what will happen if something worse comes along.

What I have learned, however, is that my general strategy is always keeping 1-2 months of basic essentials on hand is a good idea, and that I need to be more vigilant about it because people overreact.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#226

Post by thu2111 »

8fingerlouie wrote: post #211
tqkxzugoaupvwqr wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hospitals in Italy are over capacity. People are prioritized based on chance of survival. Anyone unlucky is left to die because there is not enough equipment.

Yesterday the news was that anybody over 80 is not treated. They simply don't have the capacity for it, and survival chances are better for people under 80.

Are you sure?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

Lombardy intensive care coordinator Grasselli said he believed that, so far, all patients with a reasonable chance of recovering and living an acceptable quality of life had been treated.

I wonder if we're getting mixed messages here; that is, it's inevitable doctors give up on some cases and unplug them from the ICU but that is always a risk in ICU for any reason to be there.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#227

Post by beatgammit »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #132
hellofunk wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has already proven to be far worse than the flu in its strain on healthcare systems.

Isn't that largely due to a lack of immunity? Too many people getting it at once in clusters?

If this becomes a cyclical thing, I'm sure we'll have vaccines for it like we do the flu, at which point it'll just be annoying like the flu is.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#228

Post by jansan »

Mumps wrote: post #207
jansan wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is the only reason for the claim that masks are useless. Of course they are not useless, Chinese aren't idiots.

Oh come on. A) nobody is making that claim - you are. So don't turn this into some weird non-fact-based appeal to emotions. The claim that they are useless is because the evidence does not support them. They ARE useful in clinical settings, and heavily required there. B) there is no evidence for their success: 1) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344 "implementing simple hygiene measures" was vastly more effecti…

Nobody is making this claim? Since your nickname sounds German, you may be able to understand this text from the FAZ:

"Im Folgenden ist eine Reihe nachweislich falscher Angaben aufgelistet – etwa der Nutzen von Atemmasken gegen eine Ansteckung"

Source: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavi...

What they claim is that the uselessness of face masks is proven. Not that the usefulness is unproven. That makes a big difference.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#229

Post by jansan »

robbiep wrote: post #215
atomi wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're obviously not useless. They do keep spittle down. But every person in public would have to wear them in the off chance they're asymptomatic carriers. And a virus will still penetrate most masks through the sides where air is mainly being pulled in from. So there is more nuance than just "masks are useless" I guess you can wear them. But given the choice I'd rather have immunity. And I think we should focus mo…

Droplet infection is only really a problem within a couple of metres - SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be aerosol spread.

I seems Coronavirus can stay active airborne for several hours.
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