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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#211

Post by 8fingerlouie »

tqkxzugoaupvwqr wrote: post #125
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

Hospitals in Italy are over capacity. People are prioritized based on chance of survival. Anyone unlucky is left to die because there is not enough equipment.

Yesterday the news was that anybody over 80 is not treated. They simply don't have the capacity for it, and survival chances are better for people under 80.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#212

Post by woah »

easytiger wrote: post #196
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it comes to these estimates, the WHO seem to be really bad at their job. But the reality now is that no matter what the estimated CFR is, Covid-19 guarantees that without containment there will be significantly more people in need of hospital care than there will be beds and support staff. And that will affect the final mortality rate, and push it higher than a normal flu season.

> and push it higher than a normal flu season. last major flu season in Italy killed 24k people. We didn't immolate the global economy as a result

Why didn’t the hospital system collapse because of the flu?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#213

Post by 8fingerlouie »

marvin wrote: post #141
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

This is not a dud, and it will prime whole generations in different countries to have respect for new diseases. If the United States just delays a little longer in its response, it will also be on the list of those countries. Don't know if one should count that as a success or not.

>If the United States just delays a little longer in its response

You'd think following the trend of Italy was scary enough.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/13/21178289/c...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#214

Post by robbiep »

rickyc091 wrote: post #209
GreaterFool wrote: post #115

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

It's useless in the sense that you can still contract the virus with a mask. Let's say they are using the surgeon's mask, someone can sneeze and it can get in through the side. The n95 has a better seal so that can prevent it, but what if someone sneezes and it gets into your eye. I would say some protection is better than nothing, but don't assume you will be protected from coronavirus 100%.

No! It’s bloody useless because you’re not just receiving it through your respiratory passage, but also eyes. And then you touch a surface which someone has put bodily fluids on and put your fingers in your mouth or rub your eyes.

Masks are excellent for stopping transmission for infectious patients however - because it catches particulates.

Current (and to be fair, there remains some debate but it seems it is really just the precautionary principle) evidence suggests that spread is by droplet. So a mask doesn’t help stop you receiving it. Definitely helps you stop transmitting it; definitely helps healthcare workers who are exposed to high titre loads, and will be working sick unlike the rest of the population,

But the average person can reduce both their transmission and infection by being vigilant with hand washing, masks if sneezing/coughing/isolating, not touching face/mouth/eyes

Leave the masks to the healthcare workers and the infected

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#215

Post by robbiep »

atomi wrote: post #208
mantap wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a white lie by the media. If they told the truth to the public then they fear it would deprive hospitals of masks and cause worse outcomes for society.

They're obviously not useless. They do keep spittle down. But every person in public would have to wear them in the off chance they're asymptomatic carriers. And a virus will still penetrate most masks through the sides where air is mainly being pulled in from. So there is more nuance than just "masks are useless" I guess you can wear them. But given the choice I'd rather have immunity. And I think we should focus mo…

Droplet infection is only really a problem within a couple of metres - SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be aerosol spread.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#216

Post by shadowprofile77 »

Onanymous wrote: post #147
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active ca…

Sincerely curious, how do you square this with the CFR in Italy at this time? That the initial impact to primarily elderly people and a low count of cases compared to a much larger undiagnosed quantity (still mostly undiagnosed cases) are creating a high death rate statistic? Or do you think some other factors are at work there?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#217

Post by nradov »

huffmsa wrote: post #195
hellofunk wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s already proven not to be a dud — healthcare systems stretched to beyond 200% capacity is solid evidence of something no one has seen in recent memory. When youngish healthcare workers are dying, something is going on.

Not necessarily. If it's already in a sizable portion of the population but mostly undetected, it will kill some seemingly healthy young people. They may have some unknown underlying condition, may have the genetics to trigger a lung destroying cytokinin storm, or may just have gotten unlucky.

Here's some more information about cytokine storm syndrome treatment in COVID-19 patients.

https://www.uab.edu/news/research/item/11176-covid-19-do-not...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#218

Post by ramblerman »

piokoch wrote: post #173
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

In Italy more than 300 people die every day, the overall mortality rate is between 3% and 8% this is 10 times more than 0.4%. Even if 50%-75% are asymptomatic, there is still large percentage of critical cases that need ICU treatment and currently we are not prepared for it. For me the title should be 25% of cases require treatment in hospital and we are not able to put 25% of population into hospitals, so, very like…

> For me the title should be 25% of cases require treatment in hospital

The opposite of "completely asymptomatic" is not requires hospital.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#219

Post by vannevar »

It's a largely academic question, at least in terms of mortality and treatment. If you're asymptomatic, you're unlikely to get tested, and you'll never even know you had it. On the other hand, if you have enough symptoms to be tested, you have a higher mortality risk than asymptomatic cases by definition, so the overall mortality rate doesn't matter to you anyway.

Where it does matter (a lot) is in containment, where we should assume many more people are contagious than the reported cases, so the average individual risk of catching it is much higher.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#220

Post by gerbilly »

abiogenesis wrote: post #10
xupybd wrote: post #3

That sounds like the perfect way for a disease to spread. Do nothing to most.

The best evolutionary strategy for a virus is to not cause any disease at all.

The best evolutionary strategy in human viruses is probably to cause mild upper respiratory tract or gastrointestinal disease such that it increases coughing and sneezing or causes diarrhoea.

Basically, the most successful viruses—colds and Norwalk like viruses—modify our behaviour by hijacking one of our body's defence mechanisms so that they can spread more easily.

I would guess that the mildest form of disease sufficient for such behaviour changes would probably be the best strategy. This would keep the infected host active enough to circulate and spread the virus.

My layman's opinion on covid is that it will become weaker the more it spreads through the population, to the point that when most of us inevitably get it it will cause symptoms like a cold or mild flu.

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