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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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post #114
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The disease also appears to spread much faster than the flu. So even if the death rate is comparable, the infection rate is likely to be far higher.

This is likely because our immume system is not familliar with this virus yet.

This doesn't add up either -- immunity per individual is expected to last 'only a few months', opening the door to multiple infections per year per person.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#122
post #112
post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

Exactly the same. Considering that antimalarial drugs have positive impact against COVID-19, do you happen to be a carrier of thalassaemia? Those with the trait of thalassaemia happen to have a better chance not contracting malaria, hence the prevelance around the Mediterranean.

What are you saying, that thalassaemia is protective against COVID?

Thalassaemia protects against malaria because blood cells (the home of the parasite during a phase of its lifecycle) are destroyed up to 3-4x faster than in non-thalassaemia traits (where they last on average for 120 days).

Chloroquine seems to work by interfering with cellular binding and entry of SARS-CoV-2 on the ACE2 receptor (amongst other mechanisms)

This is why only people with training or understanding should speak about medical matters, there is enough rubbish out there (particularly at the moment) without you adding to the noise

(0) https://emcrit.org/ibcc/covid19/#chloroquine

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#123
post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

Same here in London over a month ago. Though my wife and I did develop mild respiratory problems.

I've been arguing for days that the death rates are complete fantasy. People still only using tested cases / deaths when in fact no one is being tested.

In South Korea, as of the weekend only 248,000 people out of a population of 50,000,000, with 8,086 +ve cases and 72 deaths. Without statistical extrapolation that's a Regarding your fear about primary carriers, the advice in the UK is not to visit vulnerable groups. If you are asymptomatic you are also less likely to cough etc and died the disease.

In my office culture anyone who is sick is told to go home and made to feel unwelcome (in a friendly way) Had been this way for decades. We know not to visit each other.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#124
Here’s another question: isolation... and then what?

Sit at home until 2021 when we maybe have a vaccine?

I don’t see how we make this virus disappear so while I can see how people staying at home can stop the spread, what happens when they leave? Back to square one?

Maybe UK approach is better.

Maybe we should infect young people deliberately. Here’s Netflix, some books, some video games, some virus, stay at home for 2 weeks. Build up herd immunity. Get a paper, move on.

That’s UK approach except they wait for clusters to pop up. Why not make them? Control the infection rate.

If the chances are everyone gets infected would be better to chose when!

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really, really hope so. My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

Hospitals in Italy are over capacity. People are prioritized based on chance of survival. Anyone unlucky is left to die because there is not enough equipment.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#126
post #82
post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

Mean incubation period is 5.6 days (range 1-14). So while possible, it’s highly unlikely you got it 1 day after infection.

“We estimated that fewer than 2.5% of infected persons will show symptoms within 2.2 days (CI, 1.8 to 2.9 days) of exposure, and symptom onset will occur within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) for 97.5% of infected persons.”

From https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#127

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

I live in Japan too and just spoke with a friend who thinks government is hiding cases to keep the Olympics. Given how hard it seems to get a test (as per the press) this has some truth. People are a bit more careful than in Europe but not amazingly careful either, so the virus is probably spreading silently.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#128
post #104
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases. This is good in that it means the death rate is also off by that factor, but bad in that there will not be enough fear/incentive for the primary carriers (young adults) to adhere to adequate social distancing. If the death rate is off by 10x-50x, isn't this approaching the death rate of seasonal influenza, in which case we didn't actually ne…

That doesn't add up, if it wasn't worse than seasonal influenza, then Italys hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

Italy did everything wrong.

They basically turned hospitals into covid19 infection parties.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume that asymptomatic person has a lesser concentration of virus and hence would be less contagious than the really sick ones

If you're asymptomatic, you're not coughing droplets everywhere, which ought to make you less contagious

that's also the thing I was wondering. All the people keep talking about asymptomatic spread, yet that should be relatively ineffective at spreading (unless it's super contagious and one cough can infect dozens). Somehow I think people are just not really honest with it I think...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#130
post #121
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is likely because our immume system is not familliar with this virus yet.

This doesn't add up either -- immunity per individual is expected to last 'only a few months', opening the door to multiple infections per year per person.

> This doesn't add up either -- immunity per individual is expected to last 'only a few months',

There is no evidence either way. Even if it is transient it will be enough for it to die down

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