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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#71

Post by lgats »

endogui wrote: post #67
confeit wrote: post #43

> "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence, Sergio Romagnani > Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The pro…

The Italian number (75%) comes from testing everyone in a village of 3000 people. The Chinese number (1%) comes from testing everyone who comes to hospitals and maybe their family members. I would guess that the Chinese sample was selected for people displaying symptoms (asymptomatic people will not go to the clinic), while the Italian number biases for people early in the course of the disease. For the purposes of p…

How are the South Korean's coming up with such few positives if the disease is presumably spreading among the 70% with no symptoms?

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#72

Post by watwut »

trymas wrote: post #40
username90 wrote: post #12

"Everyone we found to have Covid-19 had serious symptoms, so we don't want to waste money testing you if you don't!" I feel this is a trillion dollar mistake, testing more aggressively like South Korea means that you don't have to deploy the army and quarantine people. I had mild symptoms and they refused to test me, what am I to do? Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? I could work from home, but…

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

I agree with you and practice that. But even in tech where work from home is an option and companies are rich enough to let people stay in bad anyway, in many companies it is treated as heroic to push through. Meaning, staying at home makes you seen as less comited and less passionate. Thus, people avoid it.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#73

Post by confeit »

endogui wrote: post #67
confeit wrote: post #43

> "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence, Sergio Romagnani > Asymptomatic infection has been reported, but the majority of the relatively rare cases who are asymptomatic on the date of identification/report went on to develop disease. The pro…

The Italian number (75%) comes from testing everyone in a village of 3000 people. The Chinese number (1%) comes from testing everyone who comes to hospitals and maybe their family members. I would guess that the Chinese sample was selected for people displaying symptoms (asymptomatic people will not go to the clinic), while the Italian number biases for people early in the course of the disease. For the purposes of p…

Thanks, makes sense. Iceland also did voluntary testing and then estimated 1% of their population is infected. I doubt 1% is even showing mild symptoms. Remains the significance of asymptomatic spread. If someone does not cough or sneeze, are they shedding enough to be a formidable source of contagion?

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-genera...

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#74

Post by kayoone »

nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

I wouldn't be surprised if it's similar. Many countries, even ones in Europe with high infection rates, still don't test people if they don't show severe symptoms because they don't have the capacity to do it on a large scale.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#75

Post by gnicholas »

DeonPenny wrote: post #9

We've known this for a while. Everyone will get it. You might have it now. Nothing will happen. Still, quarantine for a while because you'll give it to an older person or kid. This isn't about a 20-something year old getting sick. Let your anti-bodies make yourself non-contagious. We are all kindergartens and this is chickenpox basically.

I have read a couple places that there is a worry that becoming ill may not generate long-lasting immunity — possibly only for a few months.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#76

Post by mikx007 »

Ozzie_osman wrote: post #30
nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

I really, really hope so. My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.

I dont think thats true. Unfortunatelly I dont see mortality rates like in Seattle reported in other retirement facilities.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#77

Post by TeMPOraL »

blahedo wrote: post #45
trymas wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self quarantine without a notice and hence without pay? If you have symptoms of _any_ illness you should always get a sick leave and stay at home. It does not matter if it's covid, seasonal flu or just a common cold - sick leave and stay at home.

I mean, sure, if you have sick leave. The above comment is perhaps aspirational, but otherwise it is woefully ignorant of the sad, sad state of US healthcare for most of its residents.

It's a problem everywhere. Sick leave is something you take when you have high fever or need surgery, not when you start coughing. Reasons include: there's only so much sick leave you can take, employers expect sick leave to be extremely rare and will "phase you out" if it isn't, getting a sick leave involves a visit to a doctor - which, like any visit to a healthcare facility processing sick people - comes with a risk of catching something even worse than what you came with.

Every place on the planet needs to rethink how we handle infectious diseases. This requires both a cultural and legal shift, so that one can just not come to work when showing mild symptoms and not face any negative consequences. The market will not make this happen on its own. But this is a golden opportunity for the cultural shift - every society on this planet is going to be deeply scarred by SARS-CoV-2.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#78

Post by arthur5005 »

Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #62
Ozzie_osman wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really, really hope so. My hope is it is way more widespread than we think, and while that means it's going to be near impossible to contain, the denominator is so large that the CFR ends up being much lower than expected.

If Covid-19 does end up being a dud, then we are in real trouble if/when an actual pandemic arrives -- because by then everyone will say the CDC is Crying Wolf.

This is my biggest concern. I don’t even think this is “the big one”

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#80

Post by grey-area »

lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #56
grey-area wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdown for months at some point soon.

Any chance you could link to those models? I searched around and couldn't find them.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

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