Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars • Hacker News Board

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#491

Post by dang » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:19 PM UTC

hirundo wrote: post #470

dang wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, I see I could have been clearer. By "go there" I mean let's not go further into nastiness. I don't mean let's not debate—quite the opposite. Nobody's killing the story or the discussion. The point is to discuss it in a way that doesn't destroy the container, which is our ability to keep discussing things in the future.

Thanks for the clarification. I do see the strategy of preempting debate used elsewhere on HN, e.g. re social justice or ideological diversity. I'm glad that's not what you're signalling here.

We don't moderate the site that way elsewhere either.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#492

Post by nostromo » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:20 PM UTC

satya71 wrote: post #478

umvi wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK, covid-19 is basically a "slightly worse flu". Most people are not at risk of dying and in fact most people don't even need to go to the hospital to recover. Surely there has to be a balance between protecting the vulnerable at the cost of ruining the economy and protecting the economy at the cost of ruining the vulnerable. How about instead of shutting down planet earth we advise people over the age of 60 to s…

Sorry this is not a "slightly worse flu". The "Spanish Flu" was both less virulent and less deadly and killed ~50 million world-wide. This is the mostly deadly pandemic since the "Black Death" of medieval times.

It’s not more deadly.

The fatality rate is 0.6% or so, and almost entirely focused on the very old or il.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#493

Post by SketchySeaBeast » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:22 PM UTC

tathougies wrote: post #332

tempestn wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I won't opine on the correct value of the stock market at the moment, but the drop in demand due to measures needed to preserve life cause a financial issue. Many/most consumer-facing businesses can't withstand a drop in demand to near zero for a period of at least several months. So those businesses, absent some sort of national bailout, will go bankrupt. Or at the very least, they will go dormant. Either way there…

Sure, but economic fallout from natural disasters typically recover much faster. It doesn't shock our trust in the financial system, and people are more community minded, since no person can be blamed for it. Already, we are seeing bipartisan attempts at governmental stimulus. Did you ever think you'd see Trump and Pelosi agree on government spending, because the white house was pretty quick to endorse the house's pl…

But doesn't the 20's then lead to the 30s? And can't an argument be made that WW1 would have contributed as well?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#494

Post by trevyn » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:29 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #283

anigbrowl wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Creditors can experience some of the pain that they normally inflict on others. They are not sacrosanct and are the least important parties in economic relations during an emergency. As normality is restored, they will have new opportunities during the ensuing large scale financial restructuring.

Bob’s Drywall Supply has net 60 for a delivery of drywall. Constructor Bill now can’t pay. Bob’s Drywall is a creditor and is on the hook for a product he already shipped. Now Bob’s Drywall Supply can’t pay the company that provided him with Net 90 terms. So Bob and Bill are now insolvent. And they fire their employees. Suggesting that creditors somehow deserve “pain,” is just cruel. Creditors don’t “inflict pain” on…

Creditors absolutely inflict pain on people who do not pay. That the borrower agreed to the pain is hardly a moral high ground.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#495

Post by JamesBarney » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:30 PM UTC

marvin wrote: post #408

JamesBarney wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... So our best sets of data are the WHO analysis of Wuhan which puts it at 5.6%. And the diamond princess which gives us a 1% fatality rate. But here's the big catch, those infected on the Diamond Princess got all of the medical care they needed. And the issue is once our healthcare system gets overwhelmed the rate will shift from 1% up to the 5.6% (And Wuh…

Also, South Korea was around 1%. It's a number that has grown in credibility, unfortunately. I was hoping 0.1%.

It's awful when you consider that losing 1% of the population is the best case scenario.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#496

Post by gilrain » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

drevil-v2 wrote: post #180

DoreenMichele wrote: post #15

“Restaurants will be allowed to provide take-out and delivery services but no in-person dining will be permitted. I live an SRO. I don't have a kitchen. I currently don't have a fridge. I have a small grill and some shelving to store stuff. I eat a lot of takeout. I'm glad to see I can still get takeout. But, wow. This is beginning to look pretty scary. I was homeless for a few years. The quarantine/containment measu…

I am curious why you think that homelessness is a supply issue? Do you currently have enough funds or collateral to purchase a modest home but there are no homes for sale in your area? Or do you mean the taxpayers should provide homes for free to the homeless?

The knock-on effects of homelessness cost society far more than free housing would. The number of homeless is not massive, and effective, high-density housing is not expensive on a governmental scale.

To say nothing of the moral imperative to care for our most vulnerable people. A wealthy country with a homeless population shames itself.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#497

Post by dkarl » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

sershe wrote: post #463

This may get downvoted, but I think the following judgement-free statement is true: this is starting to look scary/serious /solely/ because of the measures the governments are taking, and the media circus around it. Otherwise (while it would have almost certainly "started to look serious" eventually, probably for a short time), at this point, you would not have even noticed given the actual numbers.

No, we're treating it as serious because educated guesses say it is, and unfortunately, because of the lack of testing capacity, we can't do any better than that. We're taking measures that are proportional to the problem as measured in countries that have the capacity to measure it. When we're in the dark scrambling around with a lighter trying to find the light switch, it doesn't mean much that we can't see the problem.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#498

Post by djsumdog » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

A lot of restaurants stay in the red for the first 3~5 years. I have a friend who just opened a brewery in Tennessee in December. They don't serve food; it's just beer, so they might be alright - but I should probably call and see how he's doing. I sure hope they've started bottling to canning.

You'd hope owners would keep a buffer of either cash or loans/credit-line to last three months, but a lot of them starting up may not have that bootstrap capital. Restaurants that have been around for years with good management can probably weather a month or two. Even the best well restaurants are going to feel the strain if we go to month three.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#499

Post by JamesBarney » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:35 PM UTC

Grue3 wrote: post #406

JamesBarney wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about conceivably millions in the U.S. alone. 55% * 6% fatality rate * 330 million is >10,000,000. That's a lot of people to sacrifice to keep bars and restaurants open.

You're assuming that none of them would die if you keep bars and restaurants closed. There's no indication that this measure is effective at all.

That's true, I was mostly just trying to illustrate the size of the problem we're dealing with. I think our best bet is to slow it down as much as possible. And we're not going to get randomized controlled trials on a lot of the interventions we take, just our medical community's best guess at what will work.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#500

Post by djsumdog » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 3:40 PM UTC

ChrisClark wrote: post #485

umvi wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK, covid-19 is basically a "slightly worse flu". Most people are not at risk of dying and in fact most people don't even need to go to the hospital to recover. Surely there has to be a balance between protecting the vulnerable at the cost of ruining the economy and protecting the economy at the cost of ruining the vulnerable. How about instead of shutting down planet earth we advise people over the age of 60 to s…

If you are ignorant of the virus, why talk about it like this? 50% of the patients in ICU are under 50, and it causes permanent damage to your lungs and organs. If you don't take paranoid drastic measures, many millions will die. If you do take paranoid drastic measures, lives will be saved, and then everyone will call you crazy for taking those measures because it ended up not that bad. Just like people think Y2K wa…

> and it causes permanent damage to your lungs and organs.

It's too early to know this for sure. I know personally, it took over two months for my lungs to recovery from pneumonia when I was younger. People are claiming this, but we won't know for a full year of this damage is non-recoverable.

But to your other point, yes a number of experts have said the really scary thing is the number of people in their 40s, who were healthy and non-smokers, who ended up on respirators in Italy and S Korea.

Also, since when was "just a flu" okay? The flu is really fucking bad. Twice in my life I had a flu take me out for over a week, and from the accounts of SARS-cov2, many are reporting it as feeling much worse than a flu with chills for days after.