Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

441–450 of 568 posts

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#441

Post by vsareto »

tathougies wrote: post #298
eyegor wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may be no underlying financial issue, but percentage wise we're going down much faster. September to Oct 2008 was a 9.5% drop (steepest month drop). Past 30 days was a 20.5% drop. Tracking s&p 500.

That's because of people panic selling, and it's a wonderful opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

You should only buy now if you a) suddenly have a lot of cash, AND b) can definitely take a long-term position without needing the money for 5-10 years.

Everyone else should wait for the upward trend to make sure it's not going to get much worse. You want to "predict the staircase" and not "the floor".

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#442

Post by notyourday »

Merad wrote: post #8

IMO the only question now is how long it takes the rest of the country to follow suite. Here in NC our governor announced the closing of all public schools on Friday, but I've heard from several friends that in my city (Raleigh) the downtown bars and restaurants were pretty much at normal capacity this weekend. I don't think the general public is going to truly take this seriously until they're told that they have to…

NYC bars/lounges were packed Friday and Saturday. The bar staff that I follow on IG was giggly at the amount of money they were making telling people to keep coming in.

The sad thing is it were places popular with the crowds that live paycheck to paycheck most of whom cannot afford any sort of medical emergency or being under a forced quarantine.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#443

Post by hiq »

eeh wrote: post #372
rubicon33 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just look at some of the comments in this very thread, calling for us to adopt the "UK model". It's clear that some people DO NOT see this as a threat worth worrying about. Shame on them, I say. They're probably the same idiots that show up to work sick, and cough without covering their mouth around others. A lot of people who apparently don't believe in biology, and don't have the ability to see past their own 2 fee…

The UK model also happens to be the Germany model: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856 . The UK are focused on minimising deaths, by avoiding COVID-19 striking during next winter, when the NHS is at peak load due to winter flu. Instead, they will guide the first strike towards summer (NHS's least load), and impose measures to protect at-risk folk during that time.

As of now, I don't think there's any evidence that the immunity from having been infected in the past would last long enough to avoid another peak in winter. This thread mentions that we can assume an immunity measured in "months" if we look at other coronaviruses:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/12388371580074475...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#444

Post by michaelt »

acangiano wrote: post #225
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Also, 2% is very dubious. Italy is at 7%. The Philippines at 8%. I mean, sure these figures are out of people who were tested, but 2% is looking awfully optimistic at this point. So the potential for death reduction is even greater than the intentionally unassailable 1% figure you picked.

In terms of fatality, the Diamond Princess cruise ship [1] has the helpful property that everyone on board was tested. Nobody recovering/asymptomatic not getting tested, nobody being refused a test.

The wikipedia page lists 700 infections and 7 deaths.

Of course there are still certain biases: on one hand it happened early, when hospitals weren't overloaded; on the other, cruise ships tend to have more older people. And as I don't speak Japanese I haven't traced those numbers to primary sources.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_on_c...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#445

Post by SkyPuncher »

dillondoyle wrote: post #343
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

This is a misguided thought.

Older people are more affected by SARS-2, but they are also more affected by nearly every disease. It comes with age.

Another huge factor is we're very, very early in this crisis. On average, it takes longer for younger, stronger people to succumb to their symptoms. Even if death is not a common outcome for young people, there are concerns of long term lung and organ damage. Not to mention if you have a bad case, it literally feels like you're suffocating.

Data I've seen from Italy and China showed two important factors:

* 41% of people in China's ICU's were under 50 * Italy's average death age from COVID-19 has been dropping. I'd expected this trend until we're about 4 to 6 weeks into this being widespread in Italy (currently 2 or 3 at the moment).

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#446

Post by kerng »

graeme wrote: post #212
mardifoufs wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but it could normalize doing all of that in the future. Giving up rights once usually make these rights less untouchable in the future which doesn't have to mean that the current measures will be permanent.

Counterpoint: the west has had quarantine measures in its traditions for centuries, while developing the individual rights approach. We haven’t had to use them much in living memory, but they were not permanent in the past. Quarantine has been a necessary fact of human life for centuries. We just lived in a blessed time.

The word quarantine comes from having to spend 40 days mooring outside of Venice before being allowed to enter for trade.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#447

Post by RandomBacon »

vsareto wrote: post #441
tathougies wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because of people panic selling, and it's a wonderful opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

You should only buy now if you a) suddenly have a lot of cash, AND b) can definitely take a long-term position without needing the money for 5-10 years. Everyone else should wait for the upward trend to make sure it's not going to get much worse. You want to "predict the staircase" and not "the floor".

> Everyone else should wait for the upward trend to make sure it's not going to get much worse.

"Don't try to catch a falling knife."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#448

Post by topkai22 »

dillondoyle wrote: post #343
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

I hate myself for saying this but if one wants a cold calculous thought experiment, what about thinking about the mortality age? mostly older people, not only don't work but are also often a net burden to society.

Its already in the model- 10 quality adjusted years of life. You could reasonable drive that down, but not to less than 3 I'm pretty sure.

I don't think it's appropriate to model current output though. This is a social / political question as much as a economic one. I mostly view retirees as "paid up" members of society and, since I'd like my kids and grandkids to think this way when I'm old be not feeble, believe they should be treated as full members of society.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#449

Post by celeritascelery »

chillwaves wrote: post #44
DoreenMichele wrote: post #15

“Restaurants will be allowed to provide take-out and delivery services but no in-person dining will be permitted. I live an SRO. I don't have a kitchen. I currently don't have a fridge. I have a small grill and some shelving to store stuff. I eat a lot of takeout. I'm glad to see I can still get takeout. But, wow. This is beginning to look pretty scary. I was homeless for a few years. The quarantine/containment measu…

You have a grill? How about a hot pot, burner or hot water maker? Rice cooker? Crock pot? These are electric appliances. Cooking for yourself is a good way to protect against the virus. Heat kills it.

Most people are not getting it from their food.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#450

Post by cooljacob204 »

mdorazio wrote: post #342
briandear wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the US 12 days behind? Where does that number come from? The first Italian case was a month after the first US case.

https://i.redd.it/apxxmlc4kfm41.jpg

Population of Italy is 60m and the US is 327m.

Land size if Italy is 116,347 mi², land size of US is 3.797 million mi²

I don't think it's fair to make any assumptions from those infection numbers when the two countries are vastly different.

Post reply on HN