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“I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

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Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#41

Post by rapsey »

9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #22
rapsey wrote: post #3

Is covid-19 the biggest world event since WW2?

Depends how you measure and what you call a "world event". * Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. * 2-5 million died in the Second Congo Civil War between 1998-2003, but to a first approximation only Congo and its immediate neighbors even noticed. * The US response to 9/11 killed around 500,000 people directly (war violence) and a lot more indirectly (health, econo…

I would measure it in terms of daily life being completely altered in most regions of the world and persisting after the event (which is yet to be determined but pretty much impossible to think it wont).

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#42

Post by keiferski »

londons_explore wrote: post #27
jonrimmer wrote: post #12

In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. Regardless of the privacy and civil liberty concerns, I think that's where we'll eventually end up, and to your children it will one day seem crazy that a person with an infectious illness was once able to freely walk the…

Imagine a future where you do a swab test every morning while brushing your teeth. If you had any of thousands of infectious diseases, you're required to stay home. The test would take only 5 minutes, and you get fined if you don't do it, and receive sick pay if you test positive. I imagine that within a few years of rolling this out, common colds might be a thing of the past, and overall worker productivity higher r…

Imagine a future where you do a swab every morning while brushing your teeth and your testosterone and adrenaline levels are evaluated for likelihood of engaging in Anti-Social or Anti-Authority Activity. Individuals with high levels are locked into their apartments and subject to online training courses. Repeated violations result in a visit from the authorities.

Yeah, no thanks. Not every solution to a serious problem needs to be some surveillance state dystopian nightmare.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#43

Post by marvin »

9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #22
rapsey wrote: post #3

Is covid-19 the biggest world event since WW2?

Depends how you measure and what you call a "world event". * Mao Zedong killed 40 to 80 million people during his rule after WW2, but "only" in China. * 2-5 million died in the Second Congo Civil War between 1998-2003, but to a first approximation only Congo and its immediate neighbors even noticed. * The US response to 9/11 killed around 500,000 people directly (war violence) and a lot more indirectly (health, econo…

2-5 million dead seems perfectly plausible at this point. But remember we're not only talking about deaths, we're also talking about disruptions in society.

IMHO, we're already well into reorganization to a war economy in many countries, USA included. Meaning, truly exceptional circumstances where the status quo is suspended and different, urgent priorities are taken.

Also, at this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Trump tries to postpone the elections in November.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#44

Post by dbmueller »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #39

Some solutions that already exist, are already in use and could be firmed up: 1. Working from home. 2. Ordering online and getting takeout. 3. Using self checkout. 4. Collaboration and socialization via phone and internet. You can't get sick if you aren't exposed. People don't get sick due to some random number generator. You have to have a vector. We already know a great many ways to disrupt the spread. The antidote…

Do you have any source/reference on the Ebola stuff you're talking about?

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#45

Post by DoreenMichele »

dbmueller wrote: post #44
DoreenMichele wrote: post #39

Some solutions that already exist, are already in use and could be firmed up: 1. Working from home. 2. Ordering online and getting takeout. 3. Using self checkout. 4. Collaboration and socialization via phone and internet. You can't get sick if you aren't exposed. People don't get sick due to some random number generator. You have to have a vector. We already know a great many ways to disrupt the spread. The antidote…

Do you have any source/reference on the Ebola stuff you're talking about?

I think the book was called The Hot Zone.

Here you go. This should be it.

http://projectavalon.net/THE_HOT_ZONE_Richard_Preston.pdf

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#46

Post by Udik »

Taek wrote: post #26

Heavy testing and aggressive isolation of infected persons and areas seems to be effective. In the absence of heavy testing, broad quarantine seems to be effective. The answer at this point seems to be heavy, widespread quarantine until testing infrastructure is sufficient to closely track every active case. Once that testing is in place, most quarantines can be lifted, and any second wave can be managed. There are n…

Let me dream: how hard would it be to create a test that can be distributed by the billions on paper strips like a ph test? You take one every evening and by the morning it tells you if you can go out or not.

Is it conceivable or (borderline) impossible?

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#47

Post by [deleted] »

ekianjo wrote: post #18
jonrimmer wrote: post #12

In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. Regardless of the privacy and civil liberty concerns, I think that's where we'll eventually end up, and to your children it will one day seem crazy that a person with an infectious illness was once able to freely walk the…

> tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. That would be ridiculous if you get to millions of people infected, because that would effectively destroy all economic activity. Even during the 1918-1919 epidemic with high mortality rates people did not stop going to work. Our strategy to isolate ourselves is fine if it's short term but it can't continue more than a few months.

[deleted]

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#48

Post by dvdcxn »

bsder wrote: post #25

On what basis is anybody predicting a second wave which gets worse ? This seems completely backwards from everything we know. The Spanish Flu accidentally had an inverted forcing function--we sent the worst cases back to their home countries which helped spread the most severe cases rather than the mildest. For Covid-19, the cases most likely to spread are going to be the mildest. The worse you feel, the more likely…

Yes this is my predection too. We are enforcing evolutionary pressure that favours a less dangerous strain of the virus.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#49

Post by netsharc »

TuringTest wrote: post #24
black_puppydog wrote: post #15

I don't agree with the conclusion. We can scale down our economies and still maintain production of essentials by ` `drumroll` ` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Starting with an overblown healthcare admin system in the US, IMHO, but also including less inflammatory non-essential things like yet another range of plastic toys and luxury perfumes and and and. Essentially in this scenario, we should take this as an…

> ``drumroll`` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Maybe, but what do you do with people whose livelihood depend on those superfluous bullshit jobs? Until we have a system that guarantees a right to life even if you do nothing productive , those busyworks are used to justify giving food, shelter and healthcare to those people.

The sane/benovelent governments will probably switch to universal basic income, i.e. go deep into debt and just pay everyone money to live. And no, actually going into debt is not a huge problem, ask Keynes, or what happened in WW2; it was an emergency and governments borrowed and borrowed with no fear.

Re: “I'm not sure there is an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing”

#50

Post by lordnacho »

black_puppydog wrote: post #15

I don't agree with the conclusion. We can scale down our economies and still maintain production of essentials by ` `drumroll` ` scaling back shit that nobody needs. Starting with an overblown healthcare admin system in the US, IMHO, but also including less inflammatory non-essential things like yet another range of plastic toys and luxury perfumes and and and. Essentially in this scenario, we should take this as an…

I think you're right that is is an opportunity to think about what we really need done in society, but the implications are simply enormous.

One concrete thing that will come into focus, especially in this US election year, is the healthcare system. If the virus overwhelms the capacity in the US, it will be constantly in the news. There's no better use of the attention than to have that debate about how healthcare should be done.

About the BS jobs, yes, there's undoubtedly a lot of those. I think the only way they go is if the crisis hits the economy so hard that many businesses collapse and are rebuilt, without those jobs. This would be a catastrophe for an awful lot of people. Now, one thing that might prove to be the difference between business going down and not is government intervention. So it's going to be interesting what level of aid is offered.

My sense is the government will try to save as many businesses as possible, not taking the chance to clean out the mess left from two decades of excessively cheap money.

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