Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars • Hacker News Board

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#261

Post by joshstrange » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:03 AM UTC

hartator wrote: post #218

topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

The number coming out of China do not seem... completely above board and have been questioned by many people. Also as other have said, China, being an authoritarian country, had the power to lock down in ways that the US simply is not ready for or willing to put up with. Already in KY we've had a man who refused to self isolate after testing positive so now we have to station someone outside his house. We have 21 cases total.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#262

Post by code_duck » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:04 AM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #186

ebg13 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I live an SRO. I don't have a kitchen. I currently don't have a fridge. I have a small grill and some shelving to store stuff. I hesitate to ask about the size of the space you have available, but in Paris it's pretty common to find one room apartments that are only 9 square meters. Typically you put a one or two top induction or electric stove (portable ones are actually very cheap and work well) above a minifridg…

I hesitate to ask about the size of the space you have available Thank you for both your concern and for being respectful. I don't wish to get into the details of my living space in this discussion.

You just started your comment by listing details of your living situation, however.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#263

Post by topkai22 » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:05 AM UTC

willis936 wrote: post #231

topkai22 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I picked a lower number to get less quibbles from any doubters. But yeah, bringing CFR from 5% to 2% at 60% infection you can justify actions that otherwise seem nuts.

Honestly, the number I take issue with is the $100k. In terms of household income, this is far above the median.

The actuarial value of a human life is difficult to calculate, but it is definitely above the economic output. There are large 2nd order effects- the pain of those left behind. I picked $100k because it made the math easy, but it's also between the $50k and $129k numbers i grabbed off Wikipedia.

Also, this is one of the rare times it does makes sense to go with mean as the measure of center.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#264

Post by Leary » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

For places that don't want to close restaurants. Would it be legal in America for the restaurants to check everyone's temperature before they enter the premise (guests+ cooks+ waiters).

Wouldn't be perfect but could slow transmission down while giving them a way to earn money.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#265

Post by Polylactic_acid » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

sitkack wrote: post #220

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and dollars are not totally different things. How many lives will be ruined by total financial destruction? How many will commit suicide in the months and years after due to financial issues?

We will not value the lives of people with money over those that do not. Financial loss is _not_ the loss of life. Our lives are literally the only thing we have in this universe.

That's no what my comment said. The people who will be hit the hardest are those with little money and little employment protections. People working casual in these restaurants will be left with no job and no support.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#266

Post by icelancer » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

sb8244 wrote: post #260

icelancer wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Death rate is highly correlated with unemployment. They are not NOT the same thing. https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-...

This is either a straw man argument, or I disagree that there should be long term unemployment here. Govt programs and laws will probably be needed to provide that safety net. I'm not saying that death rate and unemployment are unrelated (equating lives and money together). I am saying that we should prioritize lives first, and figure out the money once we stop the damage.

>> I am saying that we should prioritize lives first, and figure out the money once we stop the damage.

False dichotomy. There are plenty of economists and accountants and others who can work on the economic relief package and do so in a meaningful way while scientists and medical teams (plus politicians) handle the lifesaving operations. There is no reason they cannot run in parallel.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#267

Post by ddingus » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:08 AM UTC

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #207

nullc wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we accept your premise, how many dollars in economic activity will be destroyed by the deaths of enormous numbers of working age people because the hospitals were overloaded and they couldn't get the critical care they needed?

I know this is horrible, but likely not too many. In Italy they are currently kicking people over 60 out of the hospitals to make way for the younger people who are more likely to survive with medical treatment.

And they have roughly 5 times the beds per 1000 people too.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#268

Post by joshstrange » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:08 AM UTC

listenallyall wrote: post #216

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. What matters is that they’re the same set of cooks, so if an infection spreads the number of people it can spread to is limited.

No, it's not the same set, and it's not limited. Employees have different shifts, days off, vacation, callouts, etc. They all still go home after work and interact with their family. And the working conditions essentially guarantee that if one person is carrying the virus, everyone in the kitchen will get it, which is certainly not true in front-of-house. This is a government policy that essentially tells low-paid li…

I agree, if you have never worked in the service industry for long or don't think this is a problem I urge you read through this thread: https://twitter.com/nomedabarbarian/status/12329226617406136...

I won't be touching delivery food or fast food (or going to any restaurants) until this is over. I feel terrible for the workers in these industries and I hope we pass some kind of mortgage/rent pause and relief to people laid off or not scheduled but stopping the spread of the virus has to be our number one priority.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#269

Post by PopePompus » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:09 AM UTC

grecy wrote: post #29

icelancer wrote: post #12

As usual, these announcements never come with any promise or a plan of economic relief (or at least reference to plans already made) for businesses force closed, creating more panic. I don't understand why it's so hard to just say: "We will take care of the businesses affected by this policy and more details are forthcoming." Shutting them down is the right move. Taking care of small businessowners running on thin ma…

In the same way that many Americans are living pay check to pay check, I think it's clearer than ever that states are doing the same thing. People literally don't have enough money if they don't go to work, and states literally don't have enough money to pay people (or businesses) not to go to work.

Yes, there will have to be a federal bailout, because the states cannot run deficits.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#270

Post by mjevans » Mon, Mar 16, 2020, 5:10 AM UTC

cheunste wrote: post #6

Welp, I guess my trip to Sakuracon is officially cancelled...again.

Their official website doesn't have any update yet. I suggest checking it after everyone has the official wording and duration of the announcement tomorrow.

http://sakuracon.org/