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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

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Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#391

Post by throw_564324 »

garmaine wrote: post #136
zozbot234 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing m…

> China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan... Uh, China dropped the ball for a full 3 months since the first reports of a novel respiratory disease started back in November . First denying it, then jailing the doctors who tried to raise the alarm. Not to mention not enforcing their own laws regarding food hygiene put in place after SARS which would…

They traced the virus back to November, but at the time it was not a serious threat. They just didn’t have enough data then.

Let’s put it this way, other countries have had a full 2 months of warning and preparation time and they are also dropping the ball.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#393

Post by arvinsim »

joe_the_user wrote: post #259
troughway wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>6 days later, we're at over 6000 infections, the country is in total lock down. Similar anecdote here. My SO texted me earlier this week saying how she will be taking the train from Madrid to Barcelona to go back to her family. She figured it will be empty on Sunday at 6 am. I have been following the situation evolve in Italy and told her to get on the train right away and leave immediately before it gets worse. Luc…

Shame on her People should stay where they are. Lockdown is not a disaster. People fleeing lockdown are literally the carriers of this disaster. Stay where you are, wait. Don't travel. Don't fight the locdown. Lockdown is the current, appropriate course of action. A very effective lockdown can eliminate the infection in, well, however long it took to eliminate it in Wuhan. Fleeing the lockdown now is just going to an…

To think that with the modern internet, there should be less incentive to be physically present.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#394

Post by newtoday »

res0nat0r wrote: post #317
Taek wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it looks like they over-reacted and unnecessarily tanked the economy.

The USA is going to be in terrible shape very soon, just look at this as of tonight: https://twitter.com/davidenrich/status/1239004689338970113

I'm in the US, no one cared about this until a few days ago. Now, some stores are getting low on food supplies, and people are posting about it. But, I was at a store today where they were completely stocked, and the only empty shelf was the toilet paper supply! It's insane.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#395

Post by throw_564324 »

xienze wrote: post #366
jbay808 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very important point if we're discussing the upsides and downsides of censorship, or whether China is a bad country and should feel bad about itself. But if we're looking for an example of how to solve the pandemic, when people point to China as an example, they aren't saying "we should spend a few weeks pretending the virus doesn't exist, threaten doctors who talk about it, order our labs not to study it, a…

> They’re saying we should do the stuff that China did, starting from the decisive action part You do realize that some of their “decisive actions” included enforcing quarantine via welded-shut doors, right?[0] I don’t think you’re ready to handle the kind of “decisive action” that China took. 0: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

They only did that to people that refused to self quarantine.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#396

Post by nullc »

Taek wrote: post #313
hatenberg wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is really no excuse for this happening in Europe. There was ample warning and no, not just from China. The math was very clear by early/mid February. We have to face the truth that the quality of people we vote for government is not where it needs to be and that science has too long been discredited and ignored. Some of asia learned from SARS but that's it. Madrid was hosting marches, political rallies and socc…

No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it looks like they over-reacted and unnecessarily tanked the economy.

That argument might work at a national level. It works less well at a community level, and I think stops working for any community once there is observed community spread there.

After that point it is mathematically clear that you're going to have deaths, and that similarly situated communities who react days later will have a lot more deaths. At that point the political calculus you're arguing for flips the other way around and encourages an over-reaction. ... except innumeracy is so common, we're not seeing too much evidence of that happening.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#397

Post by throw_564324 »

teknologist wrote: post #72
tuna-piano wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like China, there was a time when Italy had 1 case, then 2 cases, then 4, etc. Italy was unable to stop the spread before reaching a huge level and spreading to other countries. Why blame China for "allowing this virus to spread all around the world" when Italy allowed the same? (Italy even had a warning that it was coming!)

A bit facetious I know but I don't feel that bat soup or pangolin pie would ever be an element of Italian cuisine

What about smoked BBQ bat?

https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/08/07/15822...

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#398

Post by liquidify »

Here in the U.S.A. in Indianapolis, my 60 year old dad is out at a club right now dancing with his old people girlfriends. He is a smart dude (on paper - tenured professor of finance), but he doesn't think he has a thing to worry about.

I hope we get a lock down here. Many people are too selfish, arrogant, and stupid to make the right choices even when it is obvious.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#399

Post by [deleted] »

stan_rogers wrote: post #277
warent wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't see them say anything about "fleeing a lockdown." She was fleeing a potentially life-threatening virus in a scary situation in order to be with her family. That isn't so hard to grok, and obviously she felt she was making the right decision. Shaming someone for looking for security and safety in a scary situation (i.e. for being human) is just absurd.

Shaming somebody for potentially spreading a disease, on the other hand, is precisely the sort of thing that needs to happen in a situation like this. Epidemics don't give a tinker's damn for anyone's feelings.

[deleted]

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#400

Post by jumelles »

RivieraKid wrote: post #310

"Flattening the Curve" is a deadly delusion https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-dea... "Flatten the curve" scenario requires r0 to between 1.0 and a small number above 1.0, like 1.1. In other words, it's not happening, you either contain the virus or let it explode.

This argument doesn't negate the fact that a "flatter curve" means fewer people in hospitals (or turned away from hospitals) at a single time. The fact that we probably can't slow the virus enough to prevent overloading hospitals does NOT mean we should just throw up our hands. For instance it would be better for hospitals to be at double capacity than triple capacity.
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