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> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
Except what was really implemented in Wuhan was really not just quarantine, but was also an extreme form of social distancing, where essentially the whole province of Wuhan was locked down.
My understanding of a lot of countries approaches is that they're not trying to minimise the total number of people that have or will be infected, but they're trying to minimise the maximum number of people infected at a time (to ensure that healthcare is still available to everybody that needs it). In these simulations, that would correspond to drawing some horizontal line across the chart and trying to keep the ora…
The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…
That's not true, look at the light blue area in the distancing models.
What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-s...
I think it's more of, quarantine isn't economically feasible. But then, things that aren't feasible can often become feasible in different circumstances.
> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
you are just taking for granted the data provided to you by an authoritarian state
> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
except it may not be successful yet you are just taking for granted the data provided to you by an authoritarian state
1) Lots of epidemiological papers about the Wuhan epidemic use data from phone carriers (not the government) to track the spread and make predictions, and they were generally pretty good with their forecasts. The numbers reported by the government are consistent with the forecasts from scientists.
2) The numbers reported by China are also consistent with the spread observed _outside_ of China. You can't lie about the numbers because every other country would detect an anomalous number of imported cases. (Case point - In Canada, we're importing way more cases from the US than you'd expect if there were actually only 1200 cases in the US. This is rather because the US is lagging so far behind in testing, rather than outright deception.)
The absolute numbers don't even matter that much - what matters is the trend and the number of new cases going to zero. Look at epidemiology paper - they always assume only like 10% of infected cases are tested and confirmed. The epidemic really is coming to a close in China, still gaining momentum in Europe, and coming in a big way soon to North America.
Nice simulations. But I believe that using a population of only 200 individuals might be giving misleading results because it enters too fast the logistic limit part of the curve before you can experience the early exponential part. https://www.dummies.com/education/science/environmental-scie...
Can I just comment on the (IMO bad) choice of colors? It's hard to see the difference of sick and recovered, especially in the big square. Other than that, nice simulations. :)