Can't view due to cookiewall, is this an article about a simulator somewhere (that someone could link) or is the simulator their own?
It has built in javascript simulators.
Corona Simulator
11–20 of 81 posts
Re: Corona Simulator
#12What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-s...
Re: Corona Simulator
#13The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…
That's not true, look at the light blue area in the distancing models.
Re: Corona Simulator
#14What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-s...
I think it's more of, quarantine isn't economically feasible. But then, things that aren't feasible can often become feasible in different circumstances.
Re: Corona Simulator
#15> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.””
uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
Re: Corona Simulator
#16What I don’t get is that we keep hearing quarantine isn’t effective, yet it seems to be in China and South Korea: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-work-s...
Chinese lockdowns are the most extreme form of social distancing -- everyone in Wuhan and similar hotspots stays home, not just ones for which there's some reason to suspect infection. In South Korea and elsewhere in China, there's special attention to quarantining people who are starting to show symptoms, and close contacts -- but there's also substantial social distancing as well (closures of schools, museums, retail...). There are examples where quarantines have been part of a successful strategy, but it's hard to find one where they've worked with no other elements.
Re: Corona Simulator
#17The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…
> just another strain of the flu
That's like saying humans are just another type of salmon.
Re: Corona Simulator
#18> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
In a police state
Re: Corona Simulator
#19My understanding of a lot of countries approaches is that they're not trying to minimise the total number of people that have or will be infected, but they're trying to minimise the maximum number of people infected at a time (to ensure that healthcare is still available to everybody that needs it). In these simulations, that would correspond to drawing some horizontal line across the chart and trying to keep the orange under there the whole time.
I'm not sure if the long-term outlook is "we're all going to get it" like the flu, or we're trying to stave as much of it off before a vaccine is widely available.
Re: Corona Simulator
#20> “As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”” uh, except... the one we all just watched be successfully implemented in wuhan?
Except what was really implemented in Wuhan was really not just quarantine, but was also an extreme form of social distancing, where essentially the whole province of Wuhan was locked down.