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Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

left.it

201–210 of 740 posts

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#201

The handwaving arguments in this letter are not convincing (especially the "You do also understand that, as long as the rate of increase is exponential, no linear solution to contrast it will work (I.e. increasing x times the number of ICU machines, etc.)" nonsense). The stats in this very letter indicate that 10% of patients require ventilators, which cost about $4000. So even if the entire population were sick at t…

If you take every potential apocalyptic scenario and stockpile supplies. It’d add up to much more than 400$/resident. The real shame is globalization. If manufacturing occurred in Europe. In North America...etc. we’d all just quickly ramp up our respirator production. Instead the west outsourced this to China

This is only the first part of the problem.

The second part is, optimized supply chains that are effectively as empty as possible, all the time.

Here in Canada an 18-day rail blockade by native bands was enough to cause serious concerns in the supply of propane and other fuels in the eastern part of the country.

It's shocking that eastern half of Canada, the majority of its population, faces winters with just 3-weeks supply of fuel. The reason? Nobody wants to carry inventory.

So for many things, we outsource creation, AND we optimize-away buffer stock.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an Italian, I raise my eyebrows every time China is mentioned as an example for the successful containment of this virus. China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan, and then largely to Wuhan itself and Hubei - they didn't let the population know about the danger, so for quite some time no one was thinking about protecting themselves by wearing m…

> China dropped the ball for a full 10 days back when the disease was nicely contained to a small part of Wuhan... Uh, China dropped the ball for a full 3 months since the first reports of a novel respiratory disease started back in November . First denying it, then jailing the doctors who tried to raise the alarm. Not to mention not enforcing their own laws regarding food hygiene put in place after SARS which would…

Chinese containment measures gave other countries a head start of at least two months. Too bad that no government took the challenge seriously.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#203
post #54

The last part urges lockdowns like China and South Korea but my understanding is that South Korea has not been doing lockdowns and instead was able to ramp up testing quickly and isolate infected from others. Is that incorrect?

Yes no lock downs and I believe minimal travel restrictions (only Wuhan, China?). They did extend the school holidays. Even in the center of the outbreak Daegu there was no lockdown in the city.

S. Korea has a very aggressive investigation of movements of infected persons. Once a person is found to be infected, they go through CCTV recordings, cellphone location records, etc and warn people who were in the same location at same time.

They also release to the press the location/time infected person was at, such as name of hospital/events. And these are reported to the public.

So S. Korea does not do a carpet bombing type of lock down as China but more of a surgical strike type of lock down. But it is a lock down.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#204
post #142

It's said Germany does not lock down cities and fatality remains to be extremely low, which gives British, even USA the confidence to practice herd immunity. I hope in US we will not see this exponential infected scenario, finger crossed.

German cities are starting to lock down.

Berlin has canceled any gathering with more than 50 people. If it's less than 50 people, you have to keep a list of everybody who's there for a month. Schools are closed. As are recreational places (cinemas, clubs, museums, gyms, baths). Restaurants have to enforce 1.5 meters separation between patrons.

https://www.berlin.de/rbmskzl/aktuelles/rathaus-aktuell/2020...

It's not quite Italy yet but it's close.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes we should be so flippant about hundreds of thousands of people dead. How dare you ask me to sacrifice going to a restaurant for that?

For you it's not eating out. For working families it's losing their jobs, their healthcare, and their housing because a bunch of healthy young people, that are facing almost no risk, are afraid to leave their apartments. In Seattle we're one week into this and 50+ restaurants have closed and hundreds of jobs have been lost. Those people can't pay rent and now have no healthcare. That's one week. In one month it'll be…

> By the way, you can prevent a malaria death for about $50 in Africa.

Could you point at a source of that? Last I've seen the Against Malaria Foundation was estimated to save 1 life for every couple thousand dollars.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drugs are not a solution in the next 2-3 months. There's no way a drug can be tested and ensure safe and scaled up to the tens/hundreds of millions of doses you would need. It's impossible so don't even bother considering it. Quarantining is the only thing that will help in this situation. There's no other solution we have as a society to slow down the pace of infections. People who normally wouldn't die will die bec…

> Quarantining is the only thing that will help in this situation. The question is, for how long? Until the infection curve goes down? Until there is not a single infected cases in the whole country? While you can't know when this will happen (especially the former, most models are inaccurate because too little is still known about this virus), I don't believe it is sustainable to keep an extended lockdown on a whole…

The purpose now of social distancing and quarantine is to spread out the infections so that the hospitals are not overrun by everyone being sick at once.

A significant proportion of infected need hospitalization to survive. If we all get sick at once, there simply aren't enough hospital beds to go around, not to mention other supplies. If the hospitals go far beyond capacity, the fatality rate will be _far_ higher than otherwise.

As to how long, I haven't seen good models. In the US we don't have very good data either, because we're testing basically noone.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#207

We don’t need military patrolling our streets just yet. Not saying it won’t come down to it, but the sentiment in the US is less, uh... flexible, towards being heavily locked down as compared to the aforementioned countries.

After driving around our area today, in the Seattle metro, it seemed like activity (cars in the parking lot, people on the street, etc) was off 25-30% from a usual Saturday with nice weather in March.

I feel like a lockdown / closure order for the Seattle metro counties will be coming within a week or so.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The very end of December" was 20+ days prior to the Wuhan lockdown, which was was essentially the only instance where China officially acknowledged the disease - before then, the local government was having police caution their doctors and scientists not to talk or "spread untrue rumors" about it. In the meantime, people in Wuhan and elsewhere were just hanging out as usual with no social distancing behaviors whatso…

People are very quick to blame Chinese officials, but I think they were correct in avoiding panic before knowing for sure the true dimensions of the problem they had at hand. The government has its credibility at stake: if you start using harsh measures without evidence, you lose credibility for the next time it is really needed.

> People are very quick to blame Chinese officials, but I think they were correct in avoiding panic

That's for sure but there's a useful middle ground between mindless panic and total complacency, and these Chinese officials were way too far on the complacency side for quite some time.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#209
post #93
post #37

Maybe Italy is a worst case, both because it didn't quarantine early enough, and because greater population inversion. > It's now a well-established fact that older people and those with underlying health issues are more susceptible to succumbing to Covid-19. With 23 percent Italians aged 65 or above and a median age of 47.3, the Italian population is the oldest in Europe. This is chiefly responsible for the high fat…

Italy isn't the worst case, they're just 2 weeks' ahead of most other countries. Looking at the latest SitRep from WHO, my home country (Sweden) has small no. infected (775), but grew 25% vs the previous day. If that rate keeps up, number of infected will keep on doubling every 4-5 days and in 14 days' time will be at what Italy is today (17k infected). And then another week later it'll break 100k. Exponential growth…

> but grew 25% vs the previous day. If that rate keeps up, number of infected will keep on doubling every 4-5 days

1.25^3 ≈ 2 so the doubling period for 25% growth would be closer to 3 days.

Re: Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community

#210
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italy isn't the worst case, they're just 2 weeks' ahead of most other countries. Looking at the latest SitRep from WHO, my home country (Sweden) has small no. infected (775), but grew 25% vs the previous day. If that rate keeps up, number of infected will keep on doubling every 4-5 days and in 14 days' time will be at what Italy is today (17k infected). And then another week later it'll break 100k. Exponential growth…

True. But still, maybe Italy is a worst case. Trying to be optimistic here, being >70 and all ;)

Iran is likely the worst case, but it’s hard to know the full situation there.
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