Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#161

Post by Gormisdomai » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #96

xadoc wrote: post #90

There is no proof immunity will happen, the UK Gov is thinking in economic terms and worried about GDP. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronaviru...

Exactly. We have huge debts and our "economy" runs on the assumption that, if very little goes wrong, we might be able to stay afloat. The time for creating choice on the cornonavirus response was during the last 20 years. They chose rampant financialisation, leveraging future income. The UK has no energy security. No food security. I feel the corner we have painted ourselves into makes a prolonged shutdown far, far…

Genuinely curious about where you read that the UK has no energy security? It's not something I've read about before, but is something I'm pretty invested in as a UK citizen.

The one source I could find was https://www.globalenergyinstitute.org/energy-security-risk-i... which placed the UK in the top 3 countries for energy security (many years running).

Do let me know if you have some data that would change my mind! (and ditto for food security)

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#162

Post by thaumaturgy » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #142

patrec wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Death of thousands or more??? You are living in some pleasant fantasy! Back in reality, the UK wants to infect about a cool 40M people (for the herd immunity!). Last I heard they expect 50% (20M) to get it in a 3 week interval. Meanwhile they have about 4k ICU beds, which are at close to capacity already. Assuming cocooning works so great that only 3% of people need urgent care (rather than a more likely 5-10%) and o…

I guess we'll see, won't we. I mean for all the panic about Wuhan, fewer than 3.2K people died there so far, and when it all winds down, the death toll will likely be below 5K people. Probably fewer than died of flu complications in the same time frame. Given that the vast majority of the cases are not acute, probably most of their metro population was exposed to the virus, which is tens of millions of people. I know…

Wuhan disagrees with your argument much more than it supports it. The Chinese response in Wuhan -- after the failure of the initial attempts to suppress any news of the virus -- were swift, draconian, and competent. They locked everything down, heavily restricted travel, erected 16 temporary hospitals (just for that region alone), and pumped a ton of medical supplies in to it.

So the argument that follows from that is, "these are the measures required to achieve fewer than 3200 deaths."

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#163

Post by SyneRyder » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

listsfrin wrote: post #106

snowwrestler wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem with that is, once you lift the lockdown it will simply start all over again. Well, no, because the world at the end of the lockdown is not the same as the world before the disease started spreading. Some differences: - People now know there is a dangerous disease and how to act and sanitize to mitigate its spread. - Manufacturing and other logistics for medical providers have had the time of the lockdo…

Do you have some links with reliable reports of young people getting sick and other cases you told?

Singapore has had a handful of cases of children getting it. A six-month old caught it and took nearly three weeks to recover:

https://co.vid19.sg/cases/singapore-case-28-6-month-old-male...

A 5 year-old was in hospital for six days, but has been discharged today:

https://co.vid19.sg/cases/singapore-case-160-5-year-old-male...

A 17-year old evacuated from Wuhan tested positive, but never showed any symptoms during the 3 weeks he was quarantined despite having the virus:

https://co.vid19.sg/cases/singapore-case-23-17-year-old-male...

(There's more cases that can be explored on the Singaporean website.)

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#164

Post by Marsymars » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:47 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #17

knzhou wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great.

That’s a very good point, you’re quite right. However all three of those are relatively very small population centres with very easily controlled borders. Britain does have the advantage of being an island, but it has a large rural hinterland that the virus can ‘hide out’ in, and many dense population centres without borders, so it’s a completely different environment. Take London. We could introduce a system of trac…

> millions of people flow into and out of London each week so it would be completely pointless and ineffective

Was curious about this point in particular - checked the numbers, and Heathrow has essentially equivalent traffic as Hong Kong International.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#165

Post by disgruntledphd2 » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:48 PM UTC

mytailorisrich wrote: post #150

m0zg wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we'll see, won't we. I mean for all the panic about Wuhan, fewer than 3.2K people died there so far, and when it all winds down, the death toll will likely be below 5K people. Probably fewer than died of flu complications in the same time frame. Given that the vast majority of the cases are not acute, probably most of their metro population was exposed to the virus, which is tens of millions of people. I know…

Of course the death toll in Wuhan/China has been relatively limited BECAUSE they took drastic measures. When people start to say "all this panic for that..." it means that the measures taken have worked, not that they were unnecessary.

Yup.

The best case scenario is that restrictions are introduced, and they work so well that people complain that they were unnecessary.

And remember folks, when it comes to exponential growth, the best time to act was yesterday.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#166

Post by MaxBarraclough » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:48 PM UTC

draugadrotten wrote: post #66

simonh wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think herd immunity is an integral part of the strategy. If a population never gets herd immunity, it will keep on getting infection breakouts and keep on having to impose lockdowns. The only way to stop doing lockdowns is either to prevent the ingress of the virus, ever, or eventually reach herd immunity. The virus is everywhere now, it’s part of the landscape, so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible…

> However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-t...

No reputable news outlets are reporting a vaccine breakthrough by the 'Galilee Research Institute'.

Serious estimates are that it will take around 18 months [0]

[0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51454859

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#167

Post by patrec » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:48 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #142

patrec wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Death of thousands or more??? You are living in some pleasant fantasy! Back in reality, the UK wants to infect about a cool 40M people (for the herd immunity!). Last I heard they expect 50% (20M) to get it in a 3 week interval. Meanwhile they have about 4k ICU beds, which are at close to capacity already. Assuming cocooning works so great that only 3% of people need urgent care (rather than a more likely 5-10%) and o…

I guess we'll see, won't we. I mean for all the panic about Wuhan, fewer than 3.2K people died there so far, and when it all winds down, the death toll will likely be below 5K people. Probably fewer than died of flu complications in the same time frame. Given that the vast majority of the cases are not acute, probably most of their metro population was exposed to the virus, which is tens of millions of people. I know…

I think you kinda missed the part where the UK is trying very hard to infect the majority of the population and China is trying very hard to stop more infections from taking place. Successfully it seems.

> So no, there won't be "millions of deaths" or anything close to that

I showed you some simple arithmetic, based on official figures from the UK government. Can you come up with better numbers or point out an obvious flaw in my calculation?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#168

Post by sgt101 » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:49 PM UTC

amiga_500 wrote: post #102

beaunative wrote: post #85

It looks like to me just a comfort pill for the public. They basically acknowledged that they can't handle the crisis already. So what they gonna do? They want it to appear to be an advice from expert, to persuade the public, rationalize a forced decision. The uncomfortable truth is, the British government have weighted cost and benefit, and they have decided, the death of thousands or more is not worth the cost of n…

Our establishment are very detached from the hoi polloi. One need only look at WWI unarmed charges from trenches. Not sure much has changed since this time on their side. On the pleb side I think the assumption that the upper crust are competent has changed. We've just had years and years of austerity in the UK, imposing a huge toll on the most vulnerable in society. The government repeatedly said there was no money.…

>One need only look at WWI unarmed charges from trenches.

when did that happen?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#169

Post by m0zg » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:49 PM UTC

thaumaturgy wrote: post #162

m0zg wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we'll see, won't we. I mean for all the panic about Wuhan, fewer than 3.2K people died there so far, and when it all winds down, the death toll will likely be below 5K people. Probably fewer than died of flu complications in the same time frame. Given that the vast majority of the cases are not acute, probably most of their metro population was exposed to the virus, which is tens of millions of people. I know…

Wuhan disagrees with your argument much more than it supports it. The Chinese response in Wuhan -- after the failure of the initial attempts to suppress any news of the virus -- were swift, draconian, and competent. They locked everything down, heavily restricted travel, erected 16 temporary hospitals (just for that region alone), and pumped a ton of medical supplies in to it. So the argument that follows from that i…

Which is something I explicitly pointed out. Shit like this isn't going to fly even in the UK, let alone in the US, so they seem to be acknowledging this simple fact and thinking of what they realistically can do in the absence of such "draconian" lockdown abilities. Which I think is smart. Especially if you consider that _any_ lockdown can't last for very long for economic reasons. A month or two at most, after which you start over. Lather, rinse, repeat, until you build up herd immunity.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#170

Post by hyko » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 9:49 PM UTC

They are neither; they are making difficult decisions on the basis of limited information across multiple disciplines. The main aim is to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, which would be a humanitarian disaster. A secondary aim is to prevent bringing economic life to an end in the UK, which would also be a humanitarian disaster.

We are at most about five months into this pandemic; to suggest we know what strategies succeeded and failed is very premature. We are just at the beginning.

In another world, we could all spend 2020 in individual seclusion, without any economic, social, familial, cultural, mental, or behavioral concerns. In the world that actually exists, "No man is an island, entire of itself" and so rather annoyingly we must continue to live our lives without being completely governed by epidemiological concerns. SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted asymptomatically and is basically everywhere at this point, so if your entire strategy is just "don't let anyone get infected, ever", it is surely doomed?

One country did get a legitimate chance to end COVID-19 for all humanity by preventing onward transmission, and they blew it. The next off ramp is global herd immunity (either natural or artificial), which lies years or decades in the future.

It's worth pointing out that the UK already pursues a strategy of herd immunity regarding chicken pox (along with other countries), despite the availability of a vaccine: http://www.ox.ac.uk/research/everything-you-need-know-about-... I disagree with that strategy but I am not qualified to make that decision on behalf of a country, and I'm glad it's not my responsibility to do so.