Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#91

Post by hanoz » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:53 PM UTC

I think we (UK) are trying to be too cute about managing the curve, like we can ramp it up to the capacity line then slam on the brakes with the big measures at exactly the right time and keep it ticking along there nicely through the spring and summer and have this thing wrapped up by the end of the year. It could all go very badly wrong.

I get the impression we're being overly influenced by a few gurus of behavioral science, a field which must surely make even experimental psychology look replicationally robust, and in particular by 'nudge theory', for which our politicians have a particular penchant. I also gather we war-gamed this exact scenario two years ago, which may have led to a degree of overconfidence amongst some key players.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#92

Post by AlchemistCamp » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:53 PM UTC

Silhouette wrote: post #20

knzhou wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great.

That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great. All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK. For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available, nor enough treatment facilities for those who are likely to become very sick if the virus spreads rapidly through the population.

> All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK.

Is 66 million really that qualitatively different than 24 million?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#93

Post by pubby » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:55 PM UTC

vanniv wrote: post #75

Zenst wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be pockets that will see this carry on for years globally. Currently it is mostly prevalent in climates in their winter phase months, and UK just entered spring. Then there is this virus mutating, could it mutate into something less harmful, or something more harmful. Past pandemic the spanish flu saw the initial infection decline in the summer and in the winter saw a higher wave of infections and deaths -…

It is very much more likely that, as it mutates, it will be to a less-deadly virus. Evolutionary pressure works that way -- as a less-deadly version will spread faster and outcompete a more-deadly version (because it won't kill as many hosts -- dead hosts cease spreading -- and because less-ill hosts are less likely to stay in bed until better, thus encountering more people and thus more spread) This is why, broadly,…

Spanish Flu mutated into a far deadlier version over time because it spread faster in hospitals and troop transports than on the streets. We may see a similar situation with corona virus if the quarantines and social distancing are too effective. Ideally, we want most cases to be transmitted from the weak cold-like corona virus cases, not the lung-infesting killer cases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#94

Post by throwaway936482 » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:55 PM UTC

This strategy is not insane only if there is also a concerted effort to protect those who are vulnerable while the virus spreads. The problem is there isn't one. At all. None. Zip. Zero. Some care homes are, off their own back, banning visitors but apart from that the old and the vulnerable are not being asked to self isolate or engage in social distancing, only those who have symptoms themselves are being told to self isolate, and not members of their households. Social clubs, churches, pubs, cafes, day centres, restaurants etc. where a lot of older people congregate are all still open. None essential home visits have not been curtailed and people are not being advised to socially distance themselves from the vulnerable.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#95

Post by dirtnugget » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:56 PM UTC

tyteen4a03 wrote: post #80

Is there even conclusive proof that people can be immune from the virus after being infected?

I think I even heard of people getting re-infected after having been cured

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#96

Post by amiga_500 » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:56 PM UTC

xadoc wrote: post #90

There is no proof immunity will happen, the UK Gov is thinking in economic terms and worried about GDP. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/13/coronaviru...

Exactly. We have huge debts and our "economy" runs on the assumption that, if very little goes wrong, we might be able to stay afloat.

The time for creating choice on the cornonavirus response was during the last 20 years. They chose rampant financialisation, leveraging future income.

The UK has no energy security. No food security. I feel the corner we have painted ourselves into makes a prolonged shutdown far, far harder.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#97

Post by baby » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:56 PM UTC

I'm not sure I understand how this herd immunity strategy can work in the current world. Albeit the UK is segregated from the rest with water, there are still a lot of people entering your frontiers and that are not immune.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#98

Post by jeanmichelx » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:57 PM UTC

The economy wasn't important for Brexit but it somehow is for COVID-19, and we're going to sacrifice half a million people (best case).

I say bring back the guillotine

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#99

Post by gus_massa » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:57 PM UTC

smitty1e wrote: post #23

allears wrote: post #5

There are already some reports of re-infection. It may be that immunity isn't so easy to build for this virus. Not enough is known about it yet. This is a huge gamble.

What reputable officials are on record regarding re-infection, please?

I had the same discussion a few days ago and someone posted https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-re... [It has a link to a video, but the caption of the video is wrong. The recommendation to the cured patients is not to increasing their physical activity but to enhance their own health safeguards.]

I found two other articles about the same case https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/coronavirus-multiple-infe... and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/japane... . t's not 100% clear, but it looks like a continuation of the first infection after a few week of no symptoms. It makes more sense than no immunity (at least at the short time), and a second independent infection.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#100

Post by janoc » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 8:59 PM UTC

Zenst wrote: post #8

boznz wrote: post #3

unless the world plans to stay isolated until there is a cure this may be the alternative that doesnt also bankrupt a lot of businesses and put people out of work.

There will be pockets that will see this carry on for years globally. Currently it is mostly prevalent in climates in their winter phase months, and UK just entered spring. Then there is this virus mutating, could it mutate into something less harmful, or something more harmful. Past pandemic the spanish flu saw the initial infection decline in the summer and in the winter saw a higher wave of infections and deaths -…

The problem is that nobody knows whether this virus will behave like that. Flu does, as did SARS. But MERS has no issues with killing people in Saudi Arabia in 50 degrees Celsius.

That this virus is prevalent during winter time is simply a coincidence - it has started in November and most countries affected happen to be in the northern hemisphere where we are coming into spring only now. However, there are documented cases in Australia and New Zealand too - which have late summer now.