Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#41

Post by mnl » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:41 PM UTC

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #36

mnl wrote: post #29

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

> They are ignoring any sensible model of this Meaning what? They've explained their reasoning.

That's an aspiration more than a reasoning IMO. Meanwhile that R0=2.28 is doing its thing and it can't be good for the NHS, meaning many ugly pictures. The thing is when tabloids are going to get hysterical about this.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#42

Post by simonh » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:45 PM UTC

chippy wrote: post #12

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... appears to give a better explanation from the modellers. The aim is to flatten the curve, any herd immunity is a by-product but not the aim.

I think herd immunity is an integral part of the strategy. If a population never gets herd immunity, it will keep on getting infection breakouts and keep on having to impose lockdowns. The only way to stop doing lockdowns is either to prevent the ingress of the virus, ever, or eventually reach herd immunity.

The virus is everywhere now, it’s part of the landscape, so preventing breakouts is just flat out not possible, at least for large countries with lots of travel and especially with large rural hinterlands like the UK. In this view the only strategies are long term strategies.

There is a way to get herd immunity without an epidemic, and that’s inoculations. However we do not have a vaccine yet and have no idea if or when we might ever get one. So you can bet everything on red 13 and cross your fingers for a vaccine in 6 months, or pick which longer term strategy works best for your country, with its particular demographics and geography.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#43

Post by alkonaut » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:46 PM UTC

papaf wrote: post #13

DanBC wrote: post #6

Important to remember that this person doesn't know what the policy is. They're just tweeting their opinion.

The UK government announced the policy in a press conference with the Prime Minister and the chief scientific advisor. Here is an interesting follow up interview with the chief scientific advisor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XRc389TvG8 My personal opinion, after watching the interview, is that the UK government is not doing anything that radical. They will follow the reactions of other countries but want to time…

They didn't word it like the OP. The OP got that from the Twitter account extrapolating the contents of the press conference. The press conference mentions herd immunity but it didn't (like the twitter thread) state that keeping schools open was to ensure young people get infected.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#44

Post by alkonaut » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:47 PM UTC

mnl wrote: post #29

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

Doing what someone else does, but a week later doesn't necesarily mean you made a mistake, or that you are a week late in making a decision.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#45

Post by ascorbic » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:48 PM UTC

mnl wrote: post #29

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

Yes, they've already said that they will bring in those measures in a week or two.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#46

Post by ldjb » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:48 PM UTC

smitty1e wrote: post #23

allears wrote: post #5

There are already some reports of re-infection. It may be that immunity isn't so easy to build for this virus. Not enough is known about it yet. This is a huge gamble.

What reputable officials are on record regarding re-infection, please?

I don't think there is any evidence of reinfection. What seems to have happened in some cases is that a person's symptoms have dissipated but resurfaced a bit later. In other words, the patient thought they had recovered when they hadn't.

That said, the chief scientific officer has stated that this is likely to be an annual virus: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/coronavirus-outb...

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#47

Post by Silhouette » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:48 PM UTC

knzhou wrote: post #32

Silhouette wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great. All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK. For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available, nor enough treatment facilities for those who are likely to become very sick if the virus spreads rapidly through the population.

> For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available Why? If your nation is twice as big, then all else equal, your government has twice as much money, twice as many resources, and hence twice as many tests. China now has more tests than they need and they're the 2nd most populous nation in the world.

No amount of money helps if there aren't enough tests available to buy. What is missing are manufacturing and distribution facilities, which of course are calibrated to the normal levels of work and not to a relatively sudden pandemic outbreak of one particular virus.

China has huge resources but has managed so far to keep the infection mostly contained to one specific area. It's not clear how long they'll be able to sustain that or whether they'd have enough resources to go around if all of China were the same as Hubei.

Of course all of this also assumes that tests are effective and that you can then do something useful if you confirm that a patient is indeed infected.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#48

Post by q-__-p » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:49 PM UTC

I think it would be rational if we knew more about the virus, but we really don't know much, given how new it is. There could be long-term health effects from contracting it, but we just don't know. The UK seems to be making a lot of assumptions, which may not bear out. +1 insane.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#49

Post by mrtksn » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:52 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #31

I’m going to try and lay out the case in as neutral terms as I can, although to be clear I think they are probably right. They’re going to take an awful lot of stick for it though, and indeed already are. They believe that there are basically two mitigation strategies. One is to have a very drastic early lockdown that shuts down the virus before it spreads widely. The problem with that is, once you lift the lockdown…

Do you have sources for these claims?

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#50

Post by rebuilder » Sat, Mar 14, 2020, 7:53 PM UTC

DanBC wrote: post #35

callesgg wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reported numbers in published papers are more like 0.4% under the age of 50 and 0.2% under 40 and probably lower as there could be a large portion of mild unreported cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

>> Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%) That's not a great way of measuring the death rate during an on-going epidemic. They should be measuring the number of people who died today / number of cases a week ago.

Why a week ago? If it takes longer than a week for victims to die, in a situation with rapidly increasing infections that will give a very distorted number.