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Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

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31–40 of 772 posts

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#31
I’m going to try and lay out the case in as neutral terms as I can, although to be clear I think they are probably right. They’re going to take an awful lot of stick for it though, and indeed already are.

They believe that there are basically two mitigation strategies. One is to have a very drastic early lockdown that shuts down the virus before it spreads widely. The problem with that is, once you lift the lockdown it will simply start all over again. The problem with this is lockdowns are most effective the first time you do them, and then mostly in the first few weeks of the lockdown. Do it too early, and yes it will be very effective in the short term, but later on when cases become much more prevalent the lockdowns will be less effective.

The option they are going for is to start the lockdown a little later in the cycle. The hope is this will make the lockdown more effective at a higher point in the spread. Effectively instead of a series of booms and busts, you get one longer slower initial burn and then you’re mostly done. They believe that in the long term this will make it easier to protect those most vulnerable to the virus, because you only have to do it once, at the cost of increased prevalence among people least vulnerable to it. So they see it as a better longer term strategy.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#32
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's a third strategy that works better than either: don't lockdown, but do effective testing, case tracking, and treatment, well enough so that exponential growth can't happen in the first place. That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great.

That's the policy of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, who are doing great. All of which have tiny populations compared to the UK. For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available, nor enough treatment facilities for those who are likely to become very sick if the virus spreads rapidly through the population.

> For larger nations, there simply aren't enough tests available

Why? If your nation is twice as big, then all else equal, your government has twice as much money, twice as many resources, and hence twice as many tests. China now has more tests than they need and they're the 2nd most populous nation in the world.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#34
The kill rate from economic loss far exceeds the virus atm.

You mightn't see it yet as people stick together but a lot of small business owners will be killing themselves in a year's time. (But most of economic deaths are more subtle)

The UK is also reducing this.

They are also coming into Summer, it's crazy to not maximize during this time.

The right thing to do would be to purposely infect people with a spray and isolate.

Society won't allow this. So we have to do other methods. They have a lot of lag and are random and exponential so probably out of real control.

With the UKs plan they can't keep it to young people. That certainly won't work.

But they will save many invisible economic lives.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#35
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kills maybe 1% to 2% of people under 50 with no comorbitities. If we assume everyone in the UK is under 50 and there are 60m people and we want to infect 60% of them that's 36m people infected, and 1% of that is 360,000 dead. That's ignoring all the people who do have comorbitieis (diabetes, high blood pressure, etc), and all the people over 50. It's also ignoring all the people who eg get into road traffic accide…

The reported numbers in published papers are more like 0.4% under the age of 50 and 0.2% under 40 and probably lower as there could be a large portion of mild unreported cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

>> Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%)

That's not a great way of measuring the death rate during an on-going epidemic. They should be measuring the number of people who died today / number of cases a week ago.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#36
post #29

I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened last Sunday in Spain BTW.

> They are ignoring any sensible model of this

Meaning what? They've explained their reasoning.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#37
To be honest, I don’t think this kind of conversation is worthwhile on HN. There are very few facts here, just opinions.

I’m all for posting authoritative information, and interesting side-effects.

But just shooting around opinions is best left for Twitter, Facebook, Reddit.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#38
You can read some of the rationale behind the plan here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

I'll be honest, I watched the announcement on Friday in open mouthed horror. I can't claim I have a concrete refutation for either the broad logic or the specific evidence underlying it, but even the best case scenario is a disaster of historic proportions. I wish us luck. I wish the rest of the world luck if it turns out we're right and they're wrong.

Re: Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?

#40
post #13
post #6

Important to remember that this person doesn't know what the policy is. They're just tweeting their opinion.

The UK government announced the policy in a press conference with the Prime Minister and the chief scientific advisor. Here is an interesting follow up interview with the chief scientific advisor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XRc389TvG8 My personal opinion, after watching the interview, is that the UK government is not doing anything that radical. They will follow the reactions of other countries but want to time…

Sure, but this twitter post gets shared a lot.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1238882933508919299?...

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1238816293463228423?...

"An awful lot of people with no background in epidemiology or health, and no access to the government’s policy making process, seem to be pronouncing with very high levels of certainty about what is being done and why. It is not obvious to me how this is helpful"

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