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Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#421

Post by helij »

mardifoufs wrote: post #396
JediWing wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is textbook slippery slope. Because grandparent said they would sacrifice a realistic tax increase to save lives in the COVID-19 outbreak, the parent asked about a confiscatory 99% tax rate and asset seizure, which would be wholly unnecessary for paying for the current crisis.

Yes, current crisis. Everyone agrees on the fact that the virus will probably spread and become much more widespread. Isn't it logical that costs will go up too, especially if the state decides that the economy isn't worth the loss of lives? Is slippery slope just saying that cause and effect exist now? I don't see how the original comment was unreasonable in asking what is the threshold where economic losses are too…

There are no economic losses too high as long as loss of life is less.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#422

Post by thomasmg »

zaroth wrote: post #361
cperciva wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to wait until half the country is sick, though. If you restrict movement, you see a sharp reduction in transmission when you start getting neighborhoods hitting 50%. Some will get there faster than others.

So how do you explain South Korea? Their cases have decisively peaked. So one of three things happened; 1) Herd immunity has kicked in, meaning a majority of people have already been infected and are recovering/recovered 2) Containment measures were effective against a highly communicative virus which can live in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces for up to 12 hours. 3) They just stopped testing and/or are lying abo…

When comparing countries (e.g. Italy against South Korea), you have to consider many factors.

Cultural factors: how quickly do people change their habits, to do e.g. social distancing. Do people in public wear surgical masks. Population density, temperature, weather,...

Lying governments: I don't think South Korea or Italy are lying, but Iran is for sure, and China up to some point (at least early on). Italy stopped testing at some point, but this is known. South Korea increased testing over time.

Herd immunity: maybe a part of the population was already immune before (too early to say), but it couldn't have "kicked in" during this year as there was only one wave yet.

There is no question whatsoever that this corona virus IFR is a lot higher than the 2009 H1N1 flu, but lower than the 1918 H1N1 flu. When comparing countries / regions, you should consider the population age pyramid (Italy has more old people than South Korea) and how overwhelmed the hospitals are (I think quite bad in Italy and Wuhan).

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#423

Post by thomasmg »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #325
cperciva wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to wait until half the country is sick, though. If you restrict movement, you see a sharp reduction in transmission when you start getting neighborhoods hitting 50%. Some will get there faster than others.

Yup. But to make that point, you have to show the trend that the disease will follow if you won't restrict movement - and shouting that "it's an S curve, not exponential" isn't particularly helpful here.

To be exact, it's a "logistic curve", which initially is exponential. From this 3Blue1Brown excellent video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#424

Post by austhrow743 »

JediWing wrote: post #286
mardifoufs wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? This has nothing to do with the slippery slope fallacy. . It's not because we're aren't there yet that saying that it could happen is a fallacy. With that logic any type of planning or forecast about the virus is just a slippery slope since we aren't there. And If you agree that forecasts about the virus are okay, I dont see why forecasts about the economy depending on what policy is enforced (full isolation th…

It is textbook slippery slope. Because grandparent said they would sacrifice a realistic tax increase to save lives in the COVID-19 outbreak, the parent asked about a confiscatory 99% tax rate and asset seizure, which would be wholly unnecessary for paying for the current crisis.

They didn't mention confiscation anywhere.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#425

Post by austhrow743 »

helij wrote: post #19
mtsr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.

Not aimed at you, but, I am disgusted at even a mention of these kind of 'calculations'. And yes, I am prepared to take a hit in my earnings, paying higher taxes if needed after this if that is what it takes for at least one person more to live.

Every second you spend on HN instead of moonlighting for extra cash to donate (it goes without saying you already donate your salary beyond what's required for subsistence) is frankly disgusting to me. You're murdering by the second.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#426

Post by krageon »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #318
hef19898 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Industrial grade is the key word here. They have there customers, so they don't need "cheap" PR. They are specialized in chemical plants, usually professional organizations know there limits (conditions apply). Plus, the WHO and others have these models and tools as well. Plus the domain knowledge needed. Why wo don't have anything from these bodies is a different story, so.

> Plus, the WHO and others have these models and tools as well. Assuming they have[0], my core issue is: why won't they share them ? Society is not 100% made of illiterate rubes who can only add (but not multiply) and read a line chart (and get confused by a log scale). There's enough people who could make use of more sophisticated information, including politicians and political advisors. The discussion about e.g. w…

> Society is not 100% made of illiterate rubes

> There's enough people who could make use of more sophisticated information, including politicians and political advisors.

Far be it from me to suggest politicians and political advisors are "illiterate rubes", however I can tell you with confidence that in my experience politicians don't like numbers and models and won't listen to you if you try to tell them about them. Fundamentally this means that even when they're not actually illiterate, they are functionally illiterate (unless of course said model serves their political interest exactly).

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#427

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #414
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would have been terribly irresponsible to forcibly give the WHO top billing back when they were arguing nobody should restrict travel, or to suppress news of the preparations starting to take place in SV when official US authorities were universally saying it’s not a big deal.

Exactly. This. It's a Big Deal because of the media frenzy, not because of the inherent lethality or virality of the disease. We've seen similar pandemics before, without this media frenzy. The WHO is making science-based responses, which are then perceived as "inadequate" by a public stoked into a frenzy by the media. The media are not motivated by public good, but by profit. The more scared you are, the more times…

Based on what we've seen, I'd be pretty comfortable having the Gates Foundation take over the WHO, if the world would accept it.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#428

Post by Bartweiss »

angry_octet wrote: post #367
jvvw wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard through word-of-mouth (third hand) that there are models made by experts not being shared publicly (but presumably with governments etc).

This is definitely the case. I don't know if the lack of sharing is purely reflexive or because they want to avoid societal breakdown.

The third option is "because they don't want to be blamed for model error". Governments aren't necessarily competent, but you can try to get them to understand 5%/95% confidence intervals, at least in hindsight. If you publicly release a prediction, and then the real outcome is the 10% confidence line, you're probably going to be yelled at for being wrong regardless of the error bars.

Of course, if the center of the prediction is horrifying, "people don't understand confidence intervals" then becomes a case of avoiding societal breakdown.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#429

Post by zuzzurro »

thomasmg wrote: post #422
zaroth wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how do you explain South Korea? Their cases have decisively peaked. So one of three things happened; 1) Herd immunity has kicked in, meaning a majority of people have already been infected and are recovering/recovered 2) Containment measures were effective against a highly communicative virus which can live in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces for up to 12 hours. 3) They just stopped testing and/or are lying abo…

When comparing countries (e.g. Italy against South Korea), you have to consider many factors. Cultural factors: how quickly do people change their habits, to do e.g. social distancing. Do people in public wear surgical masks. Population density, temperature, weather,... Lying governments: I don't think South Korea or Italy are lying, but Iran is for sure, and China up to some point (at least early on). Italy stopped…

Can you provide the source for “Italy stopped testing at some point”, please?

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#430

Post by fulafel »

DennisP wrote: post #108
Udik wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, but I live in the Netherlands (as an expat) and their approach to healthcare is legendary for its sloppiness. The most common joke is about doctors responding to any health complaint by handing some paracetamol and saying "come back in two weeks if you don't feel better". Three days ago the government held a special meeting about the coronavirus, in which they deliberated that people should stop shaking…

That's the generally accepted advice, unless you have shortness of breath.

Do you happen to be a dutch doctor?
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