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Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

reuters.com

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Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#231

Post by gpderetta »

elorant wrote: post #94
T-A wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3.65% / 1.75% ~ 2.09, so the difference in age profile might explain a factor 2 in the mortality ratio of Italy vs South Korea. The actual ratio is currently 7.9: 827 out of 12462 cases in Italy (6.6%), 66 out of 7869 cases in South Korea (0.84%).

My guess is that there are a lot of unreported cases in Italy while in Korea authorities seem to ran more vigorously tests. So the latter might have much more accurate numbers than the former.

That seems the obvious explaination.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#232

Post by kaitai »

3JPLW wrote: post #122
codeulike wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of the answer is in the article: SK have tested 5 times more people so picked up more mild cases in their stats

Yeah, but they've also been able to significantly slow the spread, growing at what looks to be closer to 10% day-over-day (doubling every week). Most everywhere else is seeing 25-35% (doubling every 2-3 days).

These go hand in hand. In the US we cannot slow the spread because we refuse to test anyone who doesn't need acute care or who doesn't have documented contact with travelers or foreign nationals. The research from Helen Chu's lab at University of Washington shows that this means we missed the start of community transmission entirely in Washington.

Here, there are health care workers who can't get a test! They deal with people with significant health problems every day and could be spreading it all over -- but because they didn't travel, they can't get a test.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#233

Post by T-A »

skmurphy wrote: post #139
T-A wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell from the media, Italy has not run out of intensive care units yet. See e.g. this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronaviru...

Here are two reports that would indicate that the standard of care has been substantially reduced https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-h... "Doctors and nurses are unable to tend to everybody. They lack machines to ventilate all those gasping for air." ---- https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-italy-doctor... "Another nurse working in Lombardy, the Italian region the worst hit by COVI…

Going through your links:

#1 provides no numbers and no details beyond a claim that "They lack machines to ventilate all those gasping for air."

#2 does not even go that far: it speaks of "a huge turnover issue and leaving hospitals at near capacity" (near, not above, contradicting #1)

#3 is from an intensivist in Seattle, Washington, not from Italy.

I chose the Washington Post link because it provides numbers: "Lombardy has just 737 intensive-care beds available for coronavirus patients. More than 600 are filled. [...] The region is racing to bring more beds online; it added 127 on Thursday."

(Lombardy is the region with most cases.)

This is consistent with the claim in your link #2 that hospitals are near capacity (and not above it, as suggested by your link #1).

The point of all this pedantry is simply that I don't think saturation can be invoked yet to explain the high Italian mortality rate.

Addition:

Here's a slightly older Italian source (March 11) which puts nation-wide ICU capacity in Italy at 5090, with 887 in use:

https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/11/italia-corona...

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#234

Post by cheriot »

It's clear countries that previously suffered from SARs and Swine Flu reacted to COVID-19 more effectively.

South Korea's outbreak only even got that big because one person was a super spreader.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/31-south-korea-sudden...

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#236

Post by wott »

black6 wrote: post #14
enitihas wrote: post #5

Just curious, does anybody know how did Japan manage to do so well, inspite of a very old population. Also what does HN think is the better place to be right now? A mega city or a small village?

A small village/town; away from the urban craziness; where you can walk over to your neighbor’s to ask for a pound of dried beans because the just-in-time retail model and cascading supply-chain effects means your local grocery store shelves have been emptied of the staples.

> A small village/town; away from the urban craziness;

Considering the fact that we both were downvoted, that's not the answer they want to hear on this forum. In a way, it was to be expected, since the majority usually praise density each time an urbanisation thread comes up and consider metropolitan concentration equals progress.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#237

Post by woutr_be »

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #172
js2 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore is probably doing as best as any country could hope to. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/8145224... Also, as an American, I'm embarrassed by my country's response and by how my president addresses the nation. PM Lee shows how you talk to your country: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 His original address five weeks prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8

Singapore has been competent, but Taiwan's response has been more impressive. It's very close to the hot zone, millions of people travel to and from mainland China every year, it has roughly the population of Australia living on 10% of the land Japan has, the WHO refuses any cooperation, and yet there have been under 50 cases and no local transmission. Not only that, but as a democratic state, Taiwan's control measur…

> After SARS, the TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO.

That's not surprising, since the WHO doesn't recognise Taiwan as an independent country and refuses to help them, I'm glad they were able to take their own successful measurements.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#238

Post by [deleted] »

dominotw wrote: post #130
dceddia wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For others wondering about the story behind Patient 31, here’s an article with a timeline: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...

not sure if i missed it but did patient 31 recover?

[deleted]

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#239

Post by tooltalk »

dominotw wrote: post #130
dceddia wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For others wondering about the story behind Patient 31, here’s an article with a timeline: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...

not sure if i missed it but did patient 31 recover?

No, she hasn't recovered and still under observation according to the ongoing briefing from DaeGu (10:30AM KST, March 13)

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#240

Post by jacquesm »

1-6 wrote: post #57
enitihas wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Went to two massive church gatherings while advised to isolate, gatherings with 1000 people.

It's not really a church. They're a secretive society of church corrupters spreading false teachings.

All religions spread false teachings.
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