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Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

reuters.com

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Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#51

Post by makomk »

starpilot wrote: post #15

Korea is doing some robotic testing of the samples: > Rather than a human mixing the solutions, the samples are instead put into a diagnostic machine. Inside the machine, a robot arm pipettes the solution and mixes the liquids on a number of tests at once. According to Chun, this method takes only four hours to test samples from 94 patients -- four times faster than the manual method. It also reduces the risk of huma…

I think a lot of places are probably using automated testing machines. Apparently, Public Health England has been operating theirs 24/7 after the staff go home to keep up with the incoming samples, and that's one reason why results take a lot more than 4 hours.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#52

Post by chinathrow »

RealityVoid wrote: post #43
gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

But, these measures need to hold on for long enough, until all reservoirs are depleted. Relaxing the measures after the transmission rates decrease will only stop it temporarily, so it will flare right back up if it has a source that was missed. Also, the lower the R factor, the faster measures can be relaxed. With an R0, if you want to guarantee putting out everything, you need to hold the measures for the longest p…

That's my thought as well. With having a vaccine like 12-18 months away at best, is there another strategy than just trying to eradicate it in a _massive_ concentrated worldwide effort?

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#53

Post by 1-6 »

haunter wrote: post #45

I'm curious about the cultural differences. Physical contact, kiss on the cheek, is much more common in Italy than in Korea. That can play a huge factor.

Koreans rarely hold hands in friendship too. Shaking hands, etc. You bow instead. When you go on a date, you're lucky if you get to hold hands on the first date. Kissing in public? Unacceptable.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#54

Post by [deleted] »

RealityVoid wrote: post #43
gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

But, these measures need to hold on for long enough, until all reservoirs are depleted. Relaxing the measures after the transmission rates decrease will only stop it temporarily, so it will flare right back up if it has a source that was missed. Also, the lower the R factor, the faster measures can be relaxed. With an R0, if you want to guarantee putting out everything, you need to hold the measures for the longest p…

[deleted]

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#55

Post by tunesmith »

tomerico wrote: post #10

Italy has an older population, hence more susceptible to deaths and spreading of the virus: - Average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 82 [1] - In Italy, 3.65% of the population is 80 or older [2]. - In Korea, 1.75% of the population is 80 or older [3] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19... [2] https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ [3] https://www.populationpyramid.net/…

More susceptible to deaths I understand, but is an older population more susceptible to spreading of the virus? Is probability of "infection given exposure" (as opposed to being a carrier) also greater with age? (I know that's true for kids, but hadn't heard if that trend continues across all age ranges.)

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#56

Post by amluto »

RealityVoid wrote: post #43
gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

But, these measures need to hold on for long enough, until all reservoirs are depleted. Relaxing the measures after the transmission rates decrease will only stop it temporarily, so it will flare right back up if it has a source that was missed. Also, the lower the R factor, the faster measures can be relaxed. With an R0, if you want to guarantee putting out everything, you need to hold the measures for the longest p…

I’m wondering what fraction of little kids already have it and are serving as essentially asymptotic vectors. Once a large enough fraction of little kids are immune or resistant, r0 may be permanently reduced.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#57

Post by 1-6 »

enitihas wrote: post #21
gnulinux wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be able to explain what did they do?

Went to two massive church gatherings while advised to isolate, gatherings with 1000 people.

It's not really a church. They're a secretive society of church corrupters spreading false teachings.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#58

Post by fnord123 »

zaroth wrote: post #41
skmurphy wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you factor in collapse of medical services -- Italy ran out of ventilators / ICU beds--the gap becomes clearer. You have to look at over 60 as more likely to be hospitalized, putting strain on medical system.

This doesn’t account for it because South Korea didn’t even have the number of serious cases that Italy has. The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases. The number of positive tests is a factor of the number of tests done, and how selective the testing was allowed to be. It is only loosely related to the number of infected people (technically it is the lower bound).

>The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases.

Ye olde "3.6 roentgens. Not great but not terrible" factor.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg5HOnq7zD0

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#60

Post by Leary »

tomerico wrote: post #10

Italy has an older population, hence more susceptible to deaths and spreading of the virus: - Average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 82 [1] - In Italy, 3.65% of the population is 80 or older [2]. - In Korea, 1.75% of the population is 80 or older [3] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19... [2] https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ [3] https://www.populationpyramid.net/…

It's not just the deaths now, but the trajectory. Korea has this under control, Italy won't for another 1-2 weeks.
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