Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics • Hacker News Board

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#41

Post by zaroth » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

skmurphy wrote: post #32

T-A wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3.65% / 1.75% ~ 2.09, so the difference in age profile might explain a factor 2 in the mortality ratio of Italy vs South Korea. The actual ratio is currently 7.9: 827 out of 12462 cases in Italy (6.6%), 66 out of 7869 cases in South Korea (0.84%).

If you factor in collapse of medical services -- Italy ran out of ventilators / ICU beds--the gap becomes clearer. You have to look at over 60 as more likely to be hospitalized, putting strain on medical system.

This doesn’t account for it because South Korea didn’t even have the number of serious cases that Italy has.

The real answer is simply that the number of tests is not equal to the number of cases.

The number of positive tests is a factor of the number of tests done, and how selective the testing was allowed to be. It is only loosely related to the number of infected people (technically it is the lower bound).

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#42

Post by empiricus » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

Interesting detail in the article: in Korea testing is free if referred by a doctor, or it is up to 140$ if you just want to be tested.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#43

Post by RealityVoid » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

But, these measures need to hold on for long enough, until all reservoirs are depleted. Relaxing the measures after the transmission rates decrease will only stop it temporarily, so it will flare right back up if it has a source that was missed.

Also, the lower the R factor, the faster measures can be relaxed. With an R0, if you want to guarantee putting out everything, you need to hold the measures for the longest possible lifetime of the disease. ( what's that? A month?)

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#44

Post by cycop » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:23 PM UTC

Interesting theory here is the difference in treatments using Chloroquine & Zinc Treatment Combo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&fbclid=IwAR0GU2S...

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#45

Post by haunter » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

I'm curious about the cultural differences. Physical contact, kiss on the cheek, is much more common in Italy than in Korea. That can play a huge factor.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#46

Post by ihaveajob » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

dsjoerg wrote: post #31

gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

Your last line is the super important point, occurred to me today as well. If we beat this thing with social distancing, idiots will say "See! There was no reason to panic!"

Indeed. Just 2 days ago I was talking to someone who was annoyed by people taking measures: "See, in China they're already seeing infections going down! No point in taking all these measures!" Without apparently realizing the reason why they're going down is extreme is precisely those extreme measures.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#47

Post by 1-6 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

JackRabbitSlim wrote: post #28

TL;DR S. Korea traded privacy and freedom for security.

You're absolutely right. It's been an ongoing part of day-to-day life for Koreans. Fortunately, things are pretty transparent and there aren't big businesses trying to monetize on this information (but this may change in a flash).

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#48

Post by enitihas » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

dsjoerg wrote: post #31

gHosts wrote: post #24

Reminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.

Your last line is the super important point, occurred to me today as well. If we beat this thing with social distancing, idiots will say "See! There was no reason to panic!"

I think it is fine to let the idiots win on this one and rub it in our face forever. I would be willing to boost the ego of anyone if we can contain this.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#49

Post by RealityVoid » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:25 PM UTC

Tyrek wrote: post #37

dsjoerg wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your last line is the super important point, occurred to me today as well. If we beat this thing with social distancing, idiots will say "See! There was no reason to panic!"

and what if it died down due factors other than social distancing? You're positing an irrefutable claim which is sloppy logic.

The claim is not that if it dies down after social distancing, therefore social distancing was to blame, but that if it were to _really_ die down due to it, the measures would seem like an over-reaction to a certain segment of the populace. I think that, while a bit presumptuous, will hold true.

Re: Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

#50

Post by baxtr » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 9:25 PM UTC

How about Occam’s razor? A much easier explanation be we err on the number of infected people. Tests are one way to approximate the number of infections.