Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat • Hacker News Board

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#231

Post by empath75 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

avip wrote: post #107

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

Nothing in your analysis makes any sense. First, there's no "no pandemic" case. Not anymore. Second, your conclusion says that "politicians choose (1)" but that is not the case at all - almost every country in Europe, Asia, middle east had taken measures, with varying severity, and significant economic cost. Last but not least, the whole framing is extremely simplistic and follows the "politicians are evil" reddit-li…

They're doing it now, but it's too late. They needed to do it a month earlier at least.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#232

Post by dx034 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

uk_programmer wrote: post #51

lazyier wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. It's just one guy making up random shit on a blog and is pretending that governments think like him. The reality is probably closer to the fact that there isn't anything governments can do about it. They can try to shut down the borders of the country, but that is going to a lot worse and probably won't stop it anyways. Just because governments can do something and do do something doesn't mean that that…

Russia shutdown its borders pretty much straight away and IIRC they have hardly any cases.

I believe only Moscow faces restrictions for travel from Europe. Maybe they just had much less travel anyway and that's why few got infected.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#233

Post by dang » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

koonsolo wrote: post #216

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

> So, politicians choose (1), no action, as the most likely winning scenario. I'm from Belgium myself, so I can chime in. Our minister of health is a docter herself, and is advised by a panel of experts including a professor of virology. They know very well what they are doing with the current 400 known infections. Closing schools makes no sense currently because of following factors: - kids are not the main factor i…

> So please stop your bullshit about game theory.

Your comment is fine except for that attack. Please don't stoop to that here, regardless of how strongly emotions are running. It helps no one and only makes this place worse.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#234

Post by mft_ » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

imustbeevil wrote: post #163

rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark did close every school and most administrations. France did not. Many decisions can be taken, but are not (for various reasons). Most experts recommend to limit contacts rather than closing down borders, and no one is pretending to stop the virus but they all should try to flatten the curve. You don't seem to pay attention to the current situation.

France has 11x Denmark's population and 4x it's confirmed cases, so it seems like doing nothing worked better.

Don't forget:

a) There's a time-lag of probably 1-2 weeks between someone becoming infected, until their case hits the official statistics.

b) There will be different rates of testing between different areas, healthcare systems, and countries, which will be hard to quantify.

c) There will be fundamental differences between countries (e.g. patterns of population density, quality/availability of healthcare, etc.) which mean that direct per capita comparisons (as you made) are of little value.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#235

Post by b0rsuk » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #85

b0rsuk wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This may explain why sexually-transmitted diseases get so much attention. They're probably the only kind of diseases that hit younger population much harder than senior citizens. THOSE are the diseases that make the rich earn less money. From an ethical point of view, governments owe seniors the money and care, because they had worked for state prosperity. Also, if young people had more foresight, they would realize…

> This may explain why sexually-transmitted diseases get so much attention. At least in my country, we spend radically more per-capita on healthcare for the old than we do for the young [1] simply because the old need more of it. For men age 5-45 we spend less than £1000, for men age 80-85 we spend more than £4500. It's a similar story for women, but with a bump for women of childbearing age. I don't see any evidence…

As with many things, there are two ways of looking at this. One is that old people need it the most. Another is that helping younger people is more cost-effective because they have more life ahead of them and if you cure them they're unlikely to get another disease soon. The latter is more heartless, but you can't deny there's some merit to it.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#236

Post by ekzy » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

koonsolo wrote: post #216

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

> So, politicians choose (1), no action, as the most likely winning scenario. I'm from Belgium myself, so I can chime in. Our minister of health is a docter herself, and is advised by a panel of experts including a professor of virology. They know very well what they are doing with the current 400 known infections. Closing schools makes no sense currently because of following factors: - kids are not the main factor i…

You posted the belgium link twice. Here's Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#237

Post by neuro_image3 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

The more I see and hear about coronavirus, its origins and the knock on effects it has on the economy and society I can only hope that this becomes our 'come to Jesus' moment (figuratively speaking).

This pandemic started because too many people are living together in close proximity, eeking out a living by literally catching and eating any living thing they can.

The economic effects are due to an unforgiving system that takes pride in an 'eat what you kill' culture and a 'winner take all' model of enterprise. As a consequence, there are a LOT of businesses running on thin margins and making just enough to cover costs each month.

Even one month of things going to zero will ruin a whole host of restaurants, sole proprietors, real estate speculators, and on down the chain. I hope I'm wrong, but this kind of instant systematic reduction in the economy feels unprecedented within the last 50+ years.

There are so many knock on effects of all this - people will be unemployed with limited opportunities at best. They'll potentially lose their healthcare, and in the worst cases their homes. Schools are closing around the country, and they won't have lunch programs running which means a lot of kids are likely to go without adequate food.

We need to fix (or create) safety nets in our country (and indeed the world), so when things like this happen we can all chip in to cover each other. Basic healthcare, affordable or public housing, eviction protections, food programs. These aren't radical ideas, these are the only way forward.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#238

Post by dx034 » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

mtsr wrote: post #4

varjag wrote: post #2

Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.

I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.

Of course it's true, but do we want to live in a society where we prioritize economic output over the life of people? Many do not and governments were elected by those.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#239

Post by DonHopkins » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:18 PM UTC

timeattack wrote: post #197

DonHopkins wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe them, they don't have any gay people either.

Well, there is still no panic and hospitals are not overrun with patients. Russia is not China and far from being able to hide such things from public.

Not being able to hide things from the public has never kept Putin or Trump from lying through their teeth about anything.

The Moscow Times is currently reporting that there are 28 cases so far. We'll see how that turns out, regardless of whether they're currently telling the truth about it.

Coronavirus in Russia: The Latest News | March 12

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-in-rus...

>— A religious procession in central Russia aimed at fighting the coronavirus has been canceled due to the threat of the virus itself.

Apparently they believe the gay isn't the only thing you can pray away.

Trump seeks a 'miracle' as virus fears mount

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/donald-trump-cor...

>"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear," Trump said at the White House Thursday as the virus marched across Asia and Europe after US officials said the US should brace for severe disruption to everyday life.

>The President also warned that things could "get worse before it gets better," but he added it could "maybe go away. We'll see what happens. Nobody really knows."

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#240

Post by rimliu » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 1:19 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #104

the8472 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 4a) pandemic, action, it works -> government was "right", saved lives, spared the economy -> reelected This is too optimistic. If it works then people see a tiny death rate and a shutdown forced by the government. The greatest success will look like an overreaction.

Yeah I'm not so sure. In Poland the actions are on the "extreme" side so far, and not many people complain, because sights and news from Italy are constantly brought up as comparison. It's constantly "unless we want to be as screwed as Italy is, we need to do X" and not many people complain about X.

Same in Lithuania. Closing schools, clubs, gyms, canceling all public events and gatherings. So far we have only three confirmed cases (all came back from Italy), but the public is mostly supportive("finally!"). And that is even our health minister is at the bottom of the popularity rankings and the current goverment is not loved at all.