Good analysis but I think
1) Governments are not profit motivated and are generally incompetent
2) Most measures to protect taxpayers don't play along with the overall globalist agenda
Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
171–180 of 436 posts
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it? Just compare countries with similar properties that took measures at different points in time. Japan and Germany might not be the best to compare here, but consider: Japan, schools closed etc. at 200 cases. 8 days later: 400 cases. Germany, no action whatsoever at 200 cases, 8 days later: 1600 cases.
Japan is an island, Germany is in the Schengen area and has lots of travellers to and from Italy and other European countries
I raise you that Japan has higher population density, especially vulnerable old people. Which is more important? Nobody knows.
(And it wasn't closed to travel until recently either.)
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#173I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…
This may be true if politicians are selfishly focused on reelection, and it’s one of the core reasons western democracies have term limits.
In times of crisis our system needs leaders who do the right thing over the popular thing, even when it means risking losing office. This is called statesmanship.
Voters would do well to remember this when choosing leaders, it’s an increasingly rare quality we select for.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it's not. It's just one guy making up random shit on a blog and is pretending that governments think like him. The reality is probably closer to the fact that there isn't anything governments can do about it. They can try to shut down the borders of the country, but that is going to a lot worse and probably won't stop it anyways. Just because governments can do something and do do something doesn't mean that that…
Russia shutdown its borders pretty much straight away and IIRC they have hardly any cases.
If you believe them, they don't have any gay people either.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#175Doesn't seem very well thought out. The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact both on workforce and market sentiment. The impact of long tail scenarios lower because death toll would not be just redistributed but also reduced by likely an order of magnitude.
No it's not. It's just one guy making up random shit on a blog and is pretending that governments think like him. The reality is probably closer to the fact that there isn't anything governments can do about it. They can try to shut down the borders of the country, but that is going to a lot worse and probably won't stop it anyways. Just because governments can do something and do do something doesn't mean that that…
There’s a lot that governments can do. Ireland just closed schools and universities, and banned large indoor gatherings, for instance, and directed companies to make work from home available where possible (though this last one is really more a suggestion). This won’t get rid of the virus, but it may help to slow it and thus reduce deaths.
Closing borders, certainly at this point, seems largely futile.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#176This all assumes that executive level government functions rationally and in the long-term national interest. Which is normally the case, but this is an abnormal decade.
Let me be extremely cynical (at risk of down-voting) about the current US administration's motives:
Consider Trump's just-announced travel ban on the EU-26. It misses out the UK and Ireland, despite COVID-19 having a toe-hold in those countries ... but the UK and Ireland have Trump-branded golf courses! A ban on travel from UK and IE would hurt their viability, so it was quietly omitted.
Meanwhile, the Trump hotel chain is being hit as badly as anyone else in the hospitality trade by fears of a pandemic, and revenue of his hotels in Florida is driven by spring break traffic. So he's downplaying anything that might reduce vacation travel at spring break.
Denying that COVID-19 is anything to worry about is personally advantageous for Donald Trump as a hotel magnate, because it protects his investments. It's disadvantageous for the USA as a whole, but where do his priorities lie?
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it? Just compare countries with similar properties that took measures at different points in time. Japan and Germany might not be the best to compare here, but consider: Japan, schools closed etc. at 200 cases. 8 days later: 400 cases. Germany, no action whatsoever at 200 cases, 8 days later: 1600 cases.
Japan is an island, Germany is in the Schengen area and has lots of travellers to and from Italy and other European countries
Japan's density is way higher though.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#178It's disappointing that the WHO and national agencies seem not able to adequately inform the public about their assessment of the situations, the models they're using and the conclusions they're drawing.
Right now, the most shared article on Corona is written by a growth hacker from SF who cobbled together an Excel sheet and recommends it to people to decide whether they should close their companies or stay at home.
I'm not saying this is bad, I just think such recommendations and articles should come from people that have more experience with modeling such epidemics.
Fitting a dataset with an exponential function is easy, it just doesn't tell us much beyond the current growth rate. It's also a bit ridiculous to judge how bad the situation is in a given country without accounting for differences like the number of tests that are done and the overall population of these countries.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#179I think this theory gives way too much credit to governmental competence. I think Yes Minister's Four Stage Strategy is a much more accurate assessment: Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis: In stage one we say nothing is going to happen. Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it. In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's…
This reminds me of my department head. It hurts.
Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
I interpreted it like this: deaths are less expensive than lost productivity. This might actually hold given the groups that are the most at risk are probably least productive: the old and the infirm.
Not aimed at you, but, I am disgusted at even a mention of these kind of 'calculations'. And yes, I am prepared to take a hit in my earnings, paying higher taxes if needed after this if that is what it takes for at least one person more to live.
You can save a life for every ~$3k you donate to malaria prevention.