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U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

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Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#421

Post by jki275 »

knzhou wrote: post #306
tunesmith wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3% of the infected, not 3% of everyone. You can't compare it to WW2 unless you assume everyone will be infected.

If you don't control a disease, the default assumption is that it infects a substantial fraction of the whole human population. In almost all examples in human history, whenever a disease stopped, it was either because it burned through most of humanity, or because people decided to make it stop. They don't stop themselves.

That's a ridiculous assumption.

You're pretending we live in the 1400s. We don't.

You're pretending we will take no measures to control this at all. That's simply not the case.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#422

Post by jki275 »

defined wrote: post #357
jki275 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No we're not. That's absolutely absurd to claim. It might -- MIGHT -- kill 2-3% of people who are highly susceptible to it, people who are in their 70s+, people with cardiac and respiratory disease. Maybe. We don't even know that will happen, because we can probably save a huge percentage of that population as well. You're fearmongering, and it's bullshit.

This is false. Studies done in Wuhan show that people with CVD have well over a 10% mortality rate. In addition, COVID-19 has the potential to cause permanent disability if it does not kill you first.

Again, you're assuming a 100% infection rate, which is an absolutely absurd assumption. Also, you are basing your mortality rate on a subsample of the population, not the whole population.

In short, you're lying with statistics.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#423

Post by TheKarateKid »

anigbrowl wrote: post #307
BryantD wrote: post #152

Important updates: a) This does not apply to US citizens or their family members[1]. b) This does not apply to cargo[2]. It appears that the President misspoke regarding point 2. [1] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/homeland-security-acting... . [2] https://twitter.com/AnaSwanson/status/1237921160500830208

Misspoke? It was a prepared statement read off a teleprompter. Please don't excuse it like a slip of the tongue.

In regular conversation, would you call cargo shipments “travel”? Probably not. Commerce, trade, or shipments would probably be used.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#424

Post by Scoundreller »

pottertheotter wrote: post #325
Scoundreller wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems excessive for viruses. They live nowhere near that long outside their hosts. Even a day is a long period of time in optimal conditions, and not many situations are close to optimal.

“An analysis of 22 earlier studies of similar coronaviruses, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) published online this month in the Journal of Hospital Infection, concluded that human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces for up to nine days at room temperature.” https://news.trust.org/item/20200228215640-n07fz

It's the "up to" bit that I take issue with.

It's a half-life thing. The larger your initial sample, the longer the sample can go and still have enough infectious ability left.

Scenario: Infected person sneezes over a large area and deposits over a wide area. Then you come by 6 hours later and touch a deposited surface and then 10 minutes later touch your eyes.

Each transition only picked up a fraction of what was left.

And each time period left only a fraction of what was there.

More important to limit travel, limit direct/close contact and clean commonly used surfaces frequently.

And better to avoid replicating the environmental conditions that created the "up to 9 day" figure: low temperatures and low humidity.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#425

Post by logicchains »

rsj_hn wrote: post #206
Frost1x wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…

My 2 cents. All reductions in (non-essential) travel are good in a pandemic. That doesn't mean it's sufficient, but it's something positive. I think we would all like to see stronger social distancing rules domestically (in the US), but here the US has a problem as it granted the President broad discretionary powers to suspend international travel but not domestic gatherings, which can't be banned via executive order…

>All reductions in (non-essential) travel are good in a pandemic.

All travel is essential to somebody. All restrictions on movement also have a cost, and any analysis that only looks at the benefits of something without looking at the costs cannot hope to be correct.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#426

Post by koenigdavidmj »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #360
rsj_hn wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My 2 cents. All reductions in (non-essential) travel are good in a pandemic. That doesn't mean it's sufficient, but it's something positive. I think we would all like to see stronger social distancing rules domestically (in the US), but here the US has a problem as it granted the President broad discretionary powers to suspend international travel but not domestic gatherings, which can't be banned via executive order…

> even if congress were to pass a law banning such gatherings, there would be first amendment implications Isn't there an obvious compelling state interest?

The hurdle would then be that it’s the feds’ responsibility to prove that this is the smallest infringement that would accomplish the government’s intention.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#427

Post by andrewem »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #358
Frost1x wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…

In Boston, at least, I'm seeing significant cultural changes. It's gotten much, much quieter, and meetings are all going online.

I've seen many tech companies in the Boston area announce employees can (or must) work from home, since the governor of Massachusetts declared a state of emergency on Tuesday and encouraged such actions. All governors should do likewise.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#429

Post by creato »

tempestn wrote: post #413
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My Bellevue daycare told me today that they probably won’t close unless a worker, kid, or family member gets the virus or...the state shuts them down. Fun times.

Even if they won't close, you can still pull your kid out when you believe it's prudent to do so, right?

Isn't that missing the point? That might be fine and dandy for him, but it bodes poorly for slowing the spread in general.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#430

Post by eli_gottlieb »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #358
Frost1x wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…

In Boston, at least, I'm seeing significant cultural changes. It's gotten much, much quieter, and meetings are all going online.

Admittedly, the Biogen conference was... a bit of a fuck-up. But yes, all our universities are sending their kids home, white-collar workplaces are moving towards WFH policies, etc. I've been WFH since earlier this week myself, and I went shopping for food and soap with my wife Tuesday night.
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