261–270 of 919 posts
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Because the virus can spread on surfaces I think. As well as food, and organic matter.
China Post has been shipping stuff and spraying it with disinfectant. I don't see why that would be a problem. Also doesn't it take more than 9 days to sail across the atlantic ocean?
Is there a point to this? The virus is already everywhere.
Depends on how imaginative/paranoid you are. It sure seems odd that this week has included an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a pandemic declaration, and now the biggest disruption of international travel/commerce since WW2. https://twitter.com/RusEmbUSA/status/1237048071223160833
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FOR CLARITY - I'm not saying that there isn't a need to take measures to protect people. However, I do believe that a lot of inaccurate information is being presented. The public attention on this subject is enormous, making it a ripe topic for the media to profit from alarmist headlines. [0]The source of the 40%-70% figure has since dramatically altered their estimates, and added several qualifiers. [0] https://twit…
Fair enough. I will update my numbers. If you have other sources to show that any of my other numbers are off, I am open to adjusting them. I have a feeling the totals at the end will still be alarming.
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My 2 cents. All reductions in (non-essential) travel are good in a pandemic. That doesn't mean it's sufficient, but it's something positive. I think we would all like to see stronger social distancing rules domestically (in the US), but here the US has a problem as it granted the President broad discretionary powers to suspend international travel but not domestic gatherings, which can't be banned via executive order…
OP's point wasn't "this is only going to have very limited effect", to which your reply "better than nothing" would be appropriate. Their point is that there's absolutely no effect of banning travel between two areas with similar prevalence, based on rather simple logic. Take two bags with mostly white and a similar number of red balls in them. Then, twenty times, grab one hand from each bag and empty it in the other…
By your last analogy, the red balls would have paint rubbed off them in the exchanges.
I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons, but it's literally only a few days behind the rest of Europe in terms of infection count, which means this will have almost no effect. I actually think banning travel from China months ago was a good call, but by analogous reasoning, the right time to ban travel from Europe (including the UK) was last week.
>I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons No, Ireland is also exempt. In other words, the US is banning travel from the Schengen Zone.
I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons, but it's literally only a few days behind the rest of Europe in terms of infection count, which means this will have almost no effect. I actually think banning travel from China months ago was a good call, but by analogous reasoning, the right time to ban travel from Europe (including the UK) was last week.
>I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons No, Ireland is also exempt. In other words, the US is banning travel from the Schengen Zone.
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I'm not sure where this level of panic is coming from. Numbers are about to spike everywhere pretty much no matter what anybody does, because better testing and funding has become available. Quarantining an entire continent, and even worse than this badly doing it, seems to be an astonishing overreaction. The average age of death for coronavirus victims is 83. The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Ko…
Exponential growth doesn't seem like a problem, until it is. A primary concern is reducing peak load on medical services. https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
1. Reducing the transmission rate lowers the total number of people sick at one time. Lowers the ultimate number who contract it. And pushes the peak infection rate out.
2. The above numbers are very sensitive to r0.
3. An exponential when it hits looks like a wall. You end up with a significant percentage of the population sick at once.
Could be my model being shitty but it looks like at high r0 there is a momentum effect which drives the total number infected above what you would expect.
I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons, but it's literally only a few days behind the rest of Europe in terms of infection count, which means this will have almost no effect. I actually think banning travel from China months ago was a good call, but by analogous reasoning, the right time to ban travel from Europe (including the UK) was last week.
>I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons No, Ireland is also exempt. In other words, the US is banning travel from the Schengen Zone.
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Because the virus can spread on surfaces I think. As well as food, and organic matter.
standard procedure is to just have cargo sit in quarantine for 14 days or whatever. it's a lot less of a hassle than trying to quarantine people
Even a day is a long period of time in optimal conditions, and not many situations are close to optimal.
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It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, thi…
South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days:
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...