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U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

nbcnews.com

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Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#231

Post by irq11 »

divbzero wrote: post #211
kortex wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm considering the USA fully seeded at this point.

Does this mean we need a more robust domestic response to contain coronavirus, instead of or in addition to restricting travel to the US? Akin to how securing a network is more than setting up a firewall at the perimeter.

It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago).

At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#232

Post by koyote »

sumofi wrote: post #143
corel_ wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because World War 2 killed 3% of the general population. The coronavirus, in a single country, has killed 5% of infected people and elder people or those with pre-existing conditions are majorly overrepresented in infection rates. >World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it. This isn't just wrong. It's irresponsible for you to be saying these types of absolutely…

The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic. I'm not sure how you think how critical it is. I personally have never had this issue and do not mind at all to lay still for a whole year to try to reduce the risk of this happening.

> The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic.

Unless all the people you love are over 80 (in which case the chance of them dying before Corona hit was not much less realistic than it is now) that sentance is just completely false.

Why spread such fear and misinformation?

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#233

Post by Reason077 »

corel_ wrote: post #46
fluxem wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are you planning to travel to UK by land? It's an island!

You can walk from France to the UK through the Chunnel, technically.

Yes, its dangerous and illegal but it's been done!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/22/sudanese-ref...

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#234

Post by jki275 »

knzhou wrote: post #94
corel_ wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure where this level of panic is coming from. Numbers are about to spike everywhere pretty much no matter what anybody does, because better testing and funding has become available. Quarantining an entire continent, and even worse than this badly doing it, seems to be an astonishing overreaction. The average age of death for coronavirus victims is 83. The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Ko…

> The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Korea or as high as 5% in Italy. [...] It is not an End of Days zombie apocalypse. A few percent is a lot . World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it.

No we're not. That's absolutely absurd to claim. It might -- MIGHT -- kill 2-3% of people who are highly susceptible to it, people who are in their 70s+, people with cardiac and respiratory disease. Maybe. We don't even know that will happen, because we can probably save a huge percentage of that population as well.

You're fearmongering, and it's bullshit.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#235

Post by KarlKemp »

rsj_hn wrote: post #206
Frost1x wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…

My 2 cents. All reductions in (non-essential) travel are good in a pandemic. That doesn't mean it's sufficient, but it's something positive. I think we would all like to see stronger social distancing rules domestically (in the US), but here the US has a problem as it granted the President broad discretionary powers to suspend international travel but not domestic gatherings, which can't be banned via executive order…

OP's point wasn't "this is only going to have very limited effect", to which your reply "better than nothing" would be appropriate.

Their point is that there's absolutely no effect of banning travel between two areas with similar prevalence, based on rather simple logic.

Take two bags with mostly white and a similar number of red balls in them. Then, twenty times, grab one hand from each bag and empty it in the other. What's the expected change in number of red balls?

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#236

Post by petecox »

Reason077 wrote: post #179
wdb wrote: post #138

Why is the U.K. not included? This is so weird; it's such a mess in the UK too.

Excluding the UK hints that this is, at least in part, politically motivated. In terms of risk the UK is no different to other European countries. We are certainly not immune to coronavirus, and there are currently no restrictions on travel between the UK and the continent.

UK (and Ireland) are outside Schengen.

Even if they don't restrict it to British passport holders travelling to the USA, it's still arguably easier to screen for the virus through one departure point than, say, 30.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#237

Post by guerrilla »

dcolkitt wrote: post #114
moosey wrote: post #58

I feel like there are some particular cultural attributes in the United States that make this useless at this point. The United States has a very individualistic attitude. Sure, we can pause travel from Europe, but the current administration is very anti-europe. Can we pause travel in the US? I strongly doubt that we can effectively given the strong anti-expertise attitudes as well. My guess is that the United States…

On the other hand, Americans have much larger and more comfortable homes than Europeans. Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies, which means less trips to the store. Very few people use public transportation regularly. Most people have private back yards. Many more meals are take-out or drive-thru. More Americans use e-commerce for shopping than Europeans. In Europe by contrast, much more of life revolves a…

It sounds like you've never been outside of a city in Europe and never been to a city in the US? Urban population in the EU in 2018 is 76% while 82% for the same year in the US according to The World Bank.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#238

Post by [deleted] »

misiti3780 wrote: post #190
negrit wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies No they don't. No one in NYC, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, ... have big garages to stockpile supplies and most of the US lives in those big cities with apartments without garages. In the suburbs they do but that's a minority of the population.

That is correct, but most people dont live in cities here. As of 2010, the top 10 cities had 24MM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_populous_cities_i... People in the suburbs do have big garages (think long island vs manhattan)

[deleted]

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#239

Post by freeplay »

wheelerwj wrote: post #90
JDiculous wrote: post #37

This is insane. What are the chances of this happening for Asia? I'm currently in Asia and it would be unfortunate to not be able to return home.

We're okay for now. Im in SE asia and i think im in an okay place to wait things out if necessary. I don't see them restricting the rest of asia specifically unless they close it ALL down.

I could see them closing the borders completely if things continue to progress.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#240

Post by Proziam »

knzhou wrote: post #209
Proziam wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please read the entire source. > Summary: Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls . There's an enormous difference between 40-70% of everyone and 20-60% of adults - specifically if no countermeasures are deployed .

But the point of this thread is discussing why countermeasures are justified. I'm saying that you should expect a disaster if no countermeasures are deployed -- which is exactly what you're saying too.

The subject of this whole discussion is that there's a travel restriction being put in place. This is why I believe promoting numbers that were arrived at prematurely (I would argue unethically, with the intention of being 'first' in the news) and that specifically don't account for countermeasures to be a bad idea.

We should be trying to promote risk assessments that are situationally correct.

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