Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.8% of cases are considered severe. 0.7% have died, and even that's gone up in the last few days as more cases progress. I don't know the specific stats of how many were severe/critical but it's probably much higher than the mortality rate. If you take a look at the age breakdown of the infected it seems they've been good about keeping it away from the elderly,…
There’s a link, right there in my post, with more recent and relevant data than you’re citing, and it is directly from the Korean health services: 59 / 6767 confirmed cases were severe or critical in Korea at the time of the report. That’s a rate of 0.89% The error bars on that estimate certainly encompass 1-2%, but they don’t span to 20%. Either Korea is doing something fundamentally different, or the 20% number is…
Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country
#561The numbers part is where people are confused. Becase the baseline is scetchy, depends on testing (so you risk measruing your tsting at least as much as the spreading itself) and moving. Add to that a methodology that requires a lot of domain knowledge to properly understand these numbers, and this reaction is kind of expected. Which is basically the only point I have to call the WHO, CDC and other, similar bodies out on. Explain what you are doing, why and how these things work! Especially the numbers part, I have the impression most of the panic comes from not understanding the nmbers and less the disease itself. Then people toy around with incomplete sets of these figures, usually out of date as well, and come up with stuff like 20%.