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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#151

Post by C19is20 »

CaciaraAsAServi wrote: post #65

I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany. We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requi…

Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been watching you tube video on how far a sneeze can travel. Italians are touchy-feely poeople and this scare might make them take things a bit more seriously healthwise. Friday, i have a hospital appointment for a recent leg injury - will let you know :-) as three weeks ago i was in hospital for 6 days and i got the impression they were 'preparing' for a big outbreak - very few actual doctors around, nurses stepping up, orderlies assisting nurses with basics.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#152

Post by dpcan »

hef19898 wrote: post #28
dpcan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard of 14 people dying in a 120-bed nursing home of the seasonal flu in a 3 week time span either, but the Coronavirus is making that happen in Kirkland, WA right now. Actually, about 30 people have died, but since they don't have enough tests, they can't say that it was Coronavirus. My wife is an administrator at a Nursing facility that is much larger, and this many people DYING so quickly is terrifying…

Do you have any numbers or is it just anecdotal? Because when worked in a nursing home back the day, the seasonal flus was already bad enough, so...

My wife said they didn't lose a single resident to diagnosed flu last year.

26 people have died in a matter of weeks at that nursing home from Coronavirus.

If this thing gets into these other facilities, it's going to wipe them out.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#153

Post by thalassos »

maremmano wrote: post #144

What surprises me is the number of deaths in relation to the number of infections. Even higher than Iran where I would expect less effective patient management than in northern Italy. What is your opinion on this?

The average age in italy is much beyond 50 (60 million population) and we have 3000 ICU in total. Yes.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#154

Post by srg0 »

giovan-ni wrote: post #75

I think the sequence of choices is what matters most. First they ‘quarantined’ Lombardia and some surrounding provinces. This looked nonsensical, or worse, as the contagion spread was nationwide already. Not two full days after, they are extending the restrictive measures to the whole of Italy. The net result is to have scared back home a lot of people working or studying in Lombardia, thereby easing the potential bu…

The new decree is probably a response to many potentially contagious people fleeing to the south. As I see it, if the draft version of the previous decree were not leaked, the final version would not cause so many people to run away.

Frankly, I expected that these measures will be extended to the entire country not later than by the end of the week. We're still in the exponential growth phase.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#155

Post by pas »

C19is20 wrote: post #151
CaciaraAsAServi wrote: post #65

I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany. We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requi…

Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been…

Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#156

Post by igravious »

senordevnyc wrote: post #135
igravious wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep extrapolating that tens of millions will die, and I don't doubt that tens of millions surely would _if_ there were no lock-downs! (The subject of this article!) The whole point of locking down Wuhan/Hubei and then northern Italy and now the whole country and other places and cancelling large public gatherings and events is that local, regional, and national authorities start seeing the numbers soaring and…

This is impossible to contain. The purpose of the lockdown isn't to contain, it's just to spread out the infections over a larger period of time so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. But there's likely not a plausible scenario at this point where we globally jump on this and only a few million or even tens of millions are infected. All we can do is slow it down.

China has demonstrated that it is in fact possible to contain the spread. Please use the links I provided to review the data. Do remember that the Chinese built two make-shift hospitals in something like 10 days. Once a couple of weeks pass we'll see if Italy is able to replicate what China did.

Here are my calculations based on current data[1]:

   Country     tot. deaths    pop. (1m)   tot. deaths/1m pop.
   Italy        463             62        7.46
   Iran         237             83        2.85
   China       3120           1384        2.25
   South Korea   53             51        1.03
   Spain         30             49        0.61
   France        30             67        0.44
   USA           26            329        0.08
Italy has blown past China which is why they've locked down the country. Iran will surely do so next if they are not already doing so unless they want a national calamity. South Korea reacted quicker. Spain, France, will have to act next, possibly next week or the week after, the USA will have to act in about 3 or 4 weeks assuming things remain the same but by that time it'll be early April and the weather will be getting warmer so who knows.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#157

Post by tigroferoce »

pas wrote: post #155
C19is20 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been…

Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?

I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#159

Post by igravious »

jpster wrote: post #140
igravious wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep extrapolating that tens of millions will die, and I don't doubt that tens of millions surely would _if_ there were no lock-downs! (The subject of this article!) The whole point of locking down Wuhan/Hubei and then northern Italy and now the whole country and other places and cancelling large public gatherings and events is that local, regional, and national authorities start seeing the numbers soaring and…

I’m not sure about the overall efficacy of lockdowns unless: - The US plays along. We are likely a hotspot now, whether we go the “undertest and live in ignorance” route, or not. - We have an effective plan for rebooting out of the lockdown. Which, until we have an effective treatment or vaccine, to me means temperature scanning in most public places imaginable, continued vigilance around disinfecting, continued limi…

From what the numbers are saying it looks like the USA is both under-testing and over-reporting simultaneously. Very odd state of affairs. I'm ignoring the total cases number from the USA at present because it is a clear outlier. The # of deaths is much more reliable but that number will lag as tests are performed.

(The # of deaths for Germany is suspiciously low, as is the # of deaths for S. Korea.) I actually think the Chinese data is fairly accurate. the Iranian data, well, who knows. I'd like to think the European data is reliable, but again, who knows.

If the USA becomes a hot-spot then other countries will undoubtedly institute a travel ban to/from there like is happening with parts of China, S. Korea, Italy, Iran, and so on.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#160

Post by alisonatwork »

627467 wrote: post #53

I'm curious to how does these measures affect individuals ability to get help and solve their problems they may have given the nation wide shutdown. I understand that WHO questioning of China's decision to lockdown of many of it's regions is now seen as helpful in buying the world time to deal with covid19 spread (at the cost of individual freedom and access to help in those lockdown regions). But, don't lockdown als…

There has been no product shortages in China except for facemasks. Since the first days of the lockdown till today, e-commerce is still working, deliveries are still being made. Supermarkets and pharmacies are still open. There are reduced hours and the vast majority of brick and mortar shops are closed, but no one is struggling to find daily necessities.

One area that does seem to be lacking is gyms, beauty salons, barber shops etc. But really those things are luxuries - people are able to go on without it.

Lockdown really sucks but it doesn't suck because of a lack of goods. It sucks because a massive number of people in pink collar/service roles are unable to work. It sucks because the government, and other fearful people, have essentially decided that face-to-face social interaction is not a prerequisite for a functioning society. That might sound fine to someone who is introverted and a homebody anyways, but when interactions have been forced onto the internet or behind masks and checkpoints for months, I dunno... For me it's really trying. I don't so much miss the products of life before coronavirus as I miss the society we had.

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