721–730 of 1001 posts
Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22525433.
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It is, there was this HFT firm I interned at once that rebooted all their servers at the end of the trading day to make sure they would start clean and fast the next day.
It also ensures you can come back up after an unexpected shutdown.
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> As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. Sure you can. You develop a system, learn how to find information, and make good predictions of future human behavior. You should learn the ins and outs of the product you're trading.
The efficient market hypothesis would like a word with you.
You can interpret that data differently, find your own data, and make your own predictions on future data.
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The efficient market hypothesis would like a word with you.
Out of the all the casualties of the virus, the efficient market hypothesis has got to be one of them... Where were efficient markets when all news from China pointed to a pandemic?
I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund,…
Most people don't seem to understand that you don't pull all your retirement out at once, so the market going up or down doesn't really affect that
"The man who retired on the week the DOW plunged" https://www.barrons.com/articles/he-retired-the-week-the-dow...
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The efficient market hypothesis is that markets are efficient to present public information. If markets were efficient to the present value of the future price at all times, then there would be no such thing as insider trading and hedge funds would all lose money. You can make money by making inferences about present facts, or taking views on future occurrences.
I'm not clear why you mention insider trading here? Insiders have access to information that is not present public information, and so is not priced into the current value of the stock.
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"There's nothing to do here." Maybe. I imagine it's a trigger for some people to review their investment mix. Not saying panic sell at this particularly bad moment, but downturns are an obvious heads up for people that assumed everything would constantly rise. Changing your mix for future deposits might not be a bad idea if your current mix is higher risk than it should be for your age.
Probably want to change the mix in a few months, not right now.
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Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...
I'm wondering if what 2% dies matters. This disease is mostly going to kill people past their prime working years. There are going to be tons of sociological changes. Just speculating here: - Social security could have it's date of insolvency extended. It's currently predicted to be insolvent by 2037. Most pension programs in the world will be relieved of pressure if many of those over 60 years of age die. Many state…
The US Federal government has both a literal and a figurative money printing press. Congressional appropriations create money. Revenue is an obsolete concept for currency issuers. As a Federal program, it is literally impossible for the program to be "insolvent". Social Security benefits can be paid at full rates for as long as Congress decides to do so.
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2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.
South Korea's fatality rate will be somewhere between "deaths / confirmed cases" (currently around 0.7%) and "deaths / (deaths + recoveries)" (currently around 28.5%) - those numbers will eventually converge. What really matters though is to keep the raw number of confirmed cases low enough so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. If hospitals get overwhelmed, fatality rates go up. So containment is key.
This number would be smaller than both of the ones you mentioned, unless you think that somehow all actual cases are detected.