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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#541

Post by cletus »

beambot wrote: post #512
cletus wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

US fertility rate is approx. 1.8, well below population sustainability. If it weren't for immigration (a political policy question), the US would have negative population growth too.

Not too be too glib but this reminds me of one of my pet truisms:

"If things were different, then things would be different."

Japan is way more insular than the US [1]. You can theorize about what might happen if we didn't have net immigration but it's largely irrelevant because we do.

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/24/world/insular-japan-needs...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#542

Post by senordevnyc »

disease wrote: post #263
walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

In my experience it's always good to buy when sentiment is bad. If this is just a minor dip that will bounce back up, then you got a nice little discount on your equities. If it is the start of a major downturn then you have taken the first step towards buying at a greater and greater discount and can continue buying all the way down. I don't consider this to be timing the market. You should always be investing but w…

Unless you have a source of cash that can only be accessed when markets are declining, that's still timing the market.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#543

Post by totalZero »

1121redblackgo wrote: post #365
Frost1x wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists. I'm going to shamelessly borrow this.

I wonder if the inverse rings true as well. Bull markets are paved with the blood of pessimists.

Short squeezes, sure. But they're not pessimists. More like cynics. In fact, today's most famous short seller, Jim Chanos, runs a firm called "Kynikos" (Greek for "cynic").

Apart from short squeezes, markets generally grind higher and crash lower. The left tail of the distribution is usually the thicker, meatier, juicier one. But the mode is usually slightly positive. So it's not usually the blood of cynics, but rather the patience of optimists and the persistence of hard workers, that brings markets higher.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#544

Post by altcognito »

arcticbull wrote: post #496
throwaway_tech wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why use S.Korea's numbers? Haven't they lead the best response in terms of testing and don't they have universal healthcare? It seems to me fatality rates would likely be higher in countries that: 1) aren't testing so aggressively and 2) don't have universal access to care. Maybe I am wrong though and there is good reason to believe S.Korea is the best example right now to use as a statistics model to apply across th…

Part of the reason their numbers are so low is because they're testing, which is revealing the stacks upon stacks of asymptomatic cases or cases which lead to the sniffles. That's why we know the actual mortality rates are so much lower than the media is screaming breathlessly about. Think about it: not a single story about the myriad people who've recovered completely, right? There've been 114,000 documented cases s…

You're wrong, but primarily because you insist on treating human life so trivially. Get to work eh? A best case scenario, one where the actual CFR is half what the evidence shows now is 0.25%. 30% of the population gets the flu in a regular year, so, for America that ends up being a flu season that kills 10 times more people than in an average year.

But you're focus on people hacking and wheezing their way to death. You're ignoring upwards of 5-15% of those people who will have to be on a ventilator OR WORSE. This is NOTHING like the flu.

You would do yourself a favor also to examine what it is that Italy, Wuhan and South Korea are going through to try and stop it. They certainly aren't "GOING BACK TO WORK."

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#545

Post by ouid »

kortilla wrote: post #526
ouid wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When China put 10% of the worlds population on travel restrictions, a put on SPY with a strike of 300 expiring this Friday was 29 cents. The optimism is frankly unbelievable.

That’s not optimism. That’s options pricing driven by implied volatility and the current price.

Markets are not wiggly lines.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#546

Post by chasd00 »

NelsonMinar wrote: post #230
walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

There's a colorful term for this: "catching falling knives".

i'll add one of my favorites slightly modified: "a great way to make a small fortune timing the markets is to start with a large fortune".

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#547

Post by akhilcacharya »

pjkundert wrote: post #533
beambot wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US fertility rate is approx. 1.8, well below population sustainability. If it weren't for immigration (a political policy question), the US would have negative population growth too.

We’re about to discover that uncontrolled immigration != societal regeneration, unfortunately.

Is that why American society declined in the early 20th century when there were effectively open borders? Oh wait, no it didn’t.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#548

Post by munk-a »

in_cahoots wrote: post #522
ouid wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The doubling rate is 3 days. Either we will be in a 3 month long quarantine, or in three months the infection rate will be slowing because there's no one left to infect.

That’s only true under current conditions. If we move to social distancing themselves the doubling rate may slow down significantly, which would actually increase the time to burnout.

It seems unlikely that will happen in the US due to the executive branch messaging very much being "Everything is fine folks - oh please don't stop going to work!"

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#549

Post by anm89 »

allovernow wrote: post #191
walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a c…

>If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on.

Good lord is this terrible advice. Please nobody do this.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#550

Post by sm2i »

airstrike wrote: post #400
throwsprtsdy wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Piling in on the buy side because of a fear of missing out counts as panicking.

That's hardly symmetrical to the fear of losing the money that you have already invested – investors feel they have no choice but to sell before it gets worse, whereas in the rally you can always choose not to buy.

Actually, i think it is symmetrical. The fear of missing out on making a ton of money is just as scary for a trader.
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