Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#481

Post by ElonMuskrat » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

neural_thing wrote: post #339

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

The Japanese stock market is so completely different from the West - you can draw no applicable conclusions.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#482

Post by jrockway » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

rwmj wrote: post #444

HolyLampshade wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass sell offs tend to create unorderly markets, which is not beneficial for anyone. The concept was introduced in US equities after the ‘87 crash, but was only consistently implemented for NYSE-listed stocks. In ‘13 these were made consistent and market wide (thus MWCB), set against a widely published value of the S&P (so that the control was predictable; thus how it executed today). FYI, there are also bidirectiona…

> Mass sell offs tend to create unorderly markets, which is not beneficial for anyone. It's beneficial for people who want to buy stocks cheaply or if we truly believe that markets are about price discovery.

> if we truly believe that markets are about price discovery

I think you can discover the price tomorrow.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#483

Post by bugzz » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

arcticbull wrote: post #454

mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.

Looking at Korea's numbers, they are reporting 7478 cases, with 53 deaths. But they are also reporting only 133 recoveries so far. So looking at Korea's death rate so far is in no way, shape, or form accurate, as more than 97% of their cases have not yet resolved by dying or recovering. It takes time to die.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#484

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:33 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #395

mumblemumble wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having worked for one of the (smaller) big firms, and had a chance to watch from the sidelines and seen how days like this work: No, these circuit breakers don't screw the regular guys. They discourage the regular guys from screwing themselves. There are a lot of firms whose core business strategy is to keep a level head and take advantage of people who panic and (over)react on days like this. They get damn rich doin…

> They discourage the regular guys from screwing themselves. If you're a little guy who believes that, say, 2019ncov is about to tear the world a new asshole, that's probably a decision you'd like to make for yourself. I don't doubt what you're saying, but it's a matter of perspective. Sometimes the "panic" is the correct reaction. We're sitting on top of a perfect storm which is shaping up to be a massive potential…

[deleted]

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#485

Post by pgwhalen » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

vesinisa wrote: post #34

facethrowaway wrote: post #16

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

Indeed. S&P 500 is still not even below of what it was in the end of 2018 after the last major instability. Partly thanks to this, 2019 was a marvelous year with stocks gaining almost 40% during a single calendar year. My reading is we're in a normal correction that has been exacerbated by COVID and last night's massive fall (-30%) in oil price.

Just because it's "normal" doesn't mean that it's not a crash.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#486

Post by maerF0x0 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

IMO this is a sort of gamblers ruin that happens in the markets. If you can wait long enough you usually will see a positive return (across well indexed purchases) . However, often times you need the money sooner. This could be because that money was actually for a major purchase (like a home) or because a recession means you lose your job and are on the brink of financial disaster (meaning you have to sell out at lower than cost).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#487

Post by freenergi » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#488

Post by losvedir » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

It seems to me that falling 7% is qualitatively different from opening down 7%. Oil fell 30% over the weekend because of OPEC issues, and it seems like this could just be a response to that. "Plunge" implies a sort of velocity (as opposed to falling 7% over several days) which wasn't really the case here.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#489

Post by AgentME » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

phinnaeus wrote: post #332

rafiki6 wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought these circuit breakers actually existed to stop algo's from going haywire?

Seems like that kind of thing would be implemented on the algorithm side, not the market.

No one would self-impose the limit on themselves, because you could profit if you trade while everyone else isn't trading.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#490

Post by karlkatzke » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #395

mumblemumble wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having worked for one of the (smaller) big firms, and had a chance to watch from the sidelines and seen how days like this work: No, these circuit breakers don't screw the regular guys. They discourage the regular guys from screwing themselves. There are a lot of firms whose core business strategy is to keep a level head and take advantage of people who panic and (over)react on days like this. They get damn rich doin…

> They discourage the regular guys from screwing themselves. If you're a little guy who believes that, say, 2019ncov is about to tear the world a new asshole, that's probably a decision you'd like to make for yourself. I don't doubt what you're saying, but it's a matter of perspective. Sometimes the "panic" is the correct reaction. We're sitting on top of a perfect storm which is shaping up to be a massive potential…

> Sometimes the "panic" is the correct reaction.

Panic is almost never the correct reaction. Deciding that there's going to be a downturn and you should prepare yourself for it financially is one thing, but under what circumstances would it be optimal for you as an individual to panic-sell?

In my mind, panic is the thing you do when you realize that you haven't prepared. That you don't have enough resources for an extended downturn, that you're financially over-leveraged, and that you are in danger of losing your home and being unable to feed yourself and your family. There are TONS of people who are experiencing this right now in China and Italy, and many others of us who will be experiencing it the next few weeks in the rest of the world.

But panic also implies that you don't have time to fix that, and there's nothing you can do as an individual to change it. If that's the case, you probably don't have a lot of investments in the stock market anyway. Or if you do, and you're over-leveraged in the markets because you were gambling with your money instead of investing with it, then yes, you're panic-selling right now.