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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#311

Post by kibwen »

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #220
totaldude87 wrote: post #184

To be honest , the market was in dire need for correction, BUT wonder where we will be when companies starts reporting their quarterly results and impact of that. So far this looked more like a correction than a precursor to the recession. To make things worse, OPEC dropped bombs which spread the wildfire further..

Oil dropping because an opec monopoly explodes is good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries obviously). But a drop in crude because of demand is bad for everybody.

>good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries

Not quite, it's bad news for renewables as well to see fossil prices fall.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#313

Post by solarhoma »

travisoneill1 wrote: post #125
solarhoma wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say that to the nearly 5 million employed in O&G.

Most of those who work in drilling will be laid off in the next six months. Been there done that. But it doesn't change the fact that it will be over all beneficial to the economy.

I do believe you are correct that the money the average consumer will have in their pocket will be good. But can’t help but think there are other economic implications in this huge oil drop. The drop was not initially put in place by breakdowns in opec talks. But COVID-19. So what I am getting at is a drop in manufacturing, consumer spending, and travel. I’m just scratching the surface but I hope you understand what I’m getting at.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#314

Post by allovernow »

airstrike wrote: post #256
allovernow wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK people can still trade in private, just not on the NYSE. So don't worry, it's only us regular guys that get screwed. Big firms can still contact each other to make deals.

> So don't worry, it's only us regular guys that get screwed. Big firms can still contact each other to make deals. And when everyone is selling, who do you think is buying? No one is moving much of anything for those 15 minutes

How do you sell stock if no one is buying? If people are selling, others are buying.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#315

Post by cletus »

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice.

If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider:

- If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this matters

- If your time horizon is less than 5 years out, you should really question if you should be in the stock market at all

- Be familiar with the term "dead cat bounce". This is a temporary period of recovery followed by a steeper drop. You're going to see this kind of thing.

- Large market drops often lead to or are because of a likely recession. This can go on for months or years.

- After the GFC the markets went down and then sideways for over a year. You essentially missed nothing by waiting two years. This could easily happen again.

- Learn what "reversion to mean" means. It means that at times the markets generally follow a long term upward trend. At times the market will go above or below that. This can be a useful indicator of whether equities are cheap or expensive. In a given cycle you have boom (above the mean when equities are overbought) to bust (an overcorrection to below the mean when equities are oversold).

Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#316

Post by rafiki6 »

_se wrote: post #186
bilekas wrote: post #180

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

"They" don't do anything - this is called a circuit breaker, and is automatically triggered. There are three breakers: L1 - 7% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L2 - 13% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L3 - 20% down - halted for the remainder of the day Only a single L1 and a single L2 breaker can occur in a single day, e.g. the market falling below 7%, rising, then falling again will not trigger a second L1 br…

I thought these circuit breakers actually existed to stop algo's from going haywire?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#317

Post by rsync »

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

"Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip?"

I am watching very carefully to see if the VIX goes to an outlandish number, such as 90 or 100. To give some context, the all-time high of the VIX was ~80 during the 2008 financial crisis, etc.

It is a fools errand to try to predict, and make bets upon, the VIX.

However, while we can't say anything for certain about how long markets can stay calm or how long markets can stay euphoric, we can say with some certainty that you can't panic sell forever. Your hair can only be on fire for a little while. You can only throw yourself off the top of a building once.

So if you believe you see a VIX-crisis-top it is a very good bet that the movement from there will be in only one direction and very precipitous.

IANA*.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#318

Post by gtaylor »

allovernow wrote: post #279
jamesjyu wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No one will be able to time this" "put your retirement into bonds and hold on" facepalm

What? That's how you minimize risk because there's a good chance the markets will continue to slide. It's literally why the markets are down - because investors are pulling out and parking their cash in safer havens.

If you are approaching retirement, you should already have a good % of your portfolio in bonds and other lower risk investments. If you have indeed done that, there is little reason to rush off and potentially buy high and sell low right before retirement.

For everyone else not near retirement, most are going to be better served by ignoring the volatility and continuing to invest as usual. Time in the market vs timing the market and all of that jazz.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#319

Post by mikestew »

bilekas wrote: post #180

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

The markets are not a public utility, they have owners (I own a teensy, weensy piece of NASDAQ (NDAQ), for instance). The owners can do what they want, within regulations. Use whatever metaphor works for you, but after 1987, it was thought to be a good idea to have an automated breather so that we can get our collective heads back in the game instead of panic-selling.

There is, however, no "liking" or "disliking" market direction. It's automated, with clearly-outlined rules. There's no manipulation; if A, then B.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#320

Post by chewz »

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

You start buying when nobody wants to have anything to do with stocks.

As long as you hear (even here, today) that this is a good opportunity, good time for buying at a discount - it is not a time for buying stocks.

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