Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#371

Post by spelunker » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #325

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

as usual, the financial advice is "who knows what to do good luck"

Maybe don't buy things yet because it could go down more! Dead cat bounce! Bulls take the stairs but bears take the elevator! Etc etc

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#372

Post by ktta » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

neural_thing wrote: post #339

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

Doesn't that have to do with Japan's specific long term problems though?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#373

Post by trillic » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

adrr wrote: post #355

totaldude87 wrote: post #184

To be honest , the market was in dire need for correction, BUT wonder where we will be when companies starts reporting their quarterly results and impact of that. So far this looked more like a correction than a precursor to the recession. To make things worse, OPEC dropped bombs which spread the wildfire further..

Market was all screwed up because the interest rate was so low. If bonds pay nothing, where else do you put your money?

Gold?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#374

Post by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

neural_thing wrote: post #339

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

Lifetimes.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#375

Post by nostrademons » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #308

zyang wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't shuffle your retirement investments based on market volatility. Best thing is just do nothing and ride it out.

This isn't market volatility. The is a global geopolitical event exposing the weakness of the US and global markets that people have been warning about for something like 3 years. Some treasury notes have dropped by more than 30%. We're years overdue for a cyclical recession. The fed has little room to lower rates. I could go on but the point is this is the closest we've been to a Black swan in decades.

If it's really your retirement money then presumably you are 20-40 years out from needing it. Cyclical recessions typically last 1-2 years, and even the biggest Black Swan events like the Great Depression last maybe 10 years. By the time you retire you will have largely forgotten about this.

(If your retirement is less than 5-10 years away, you should have diversified away from stocks years ago, and it's a little late now. Most target-date funds and financial advisors do this anyway.)

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#376

Post by cletus » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

neural_thing wrote: post #339

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow.

That being said, there are factors to contribute to this:

- Essentially zero population growth [2]

- A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3]

- A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Current_...

[3]: https://qz.com/198458/zombies-once-destroyed-japans-economy-...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#377

Post by evanpw » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

allovernow wrote: post #203

bilekas wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay thats fine, but who implements/decides these circuit breakers ? And what purpose to they serve only to limit a mass sell off ? Nice point about only 2 daily. But still seems crazy.

AFAIK people can still trade in private, just not on the NYSE. So don't worry, it's only us regular guys that get screwed. Big firms can still contact each other to make deals.

Nope, trading stops everywhere. Even Canada stops trading when the US has a market-wide halt.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#378

Post by oiasdjfoiasd » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

chrshawkes wrote: post #84

I don't know if it was a good bet but I moved all my 401k into money market accounts for the time being last Thursday. I feel like those who say I should ride the wave down are probably not telling me the truth. All indicators seem to suggest a 25% correction or more before the end of the year. I've been buying stocks heavily on the latest dips and so far that is all down around 20%. I diversified investments in crui…

I always have a good laugh at these posts - happens every time after a correction.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#379

Post by awb » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

EthanHeilman wrote: post #349

noja wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do they have circuit breakers in the other direction?

You can easily sell a market to zero, however it is much harder to buy a market to infinity.

* It's very difficult to sell a market to zero, but impossible to buy it to infinity.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#380

Post by papito » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #20

NikolaeVarius wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what are you shorting?

Why do you have to short anything? The idea was to get more defensive months ago. Long term treasuries are up almost 50% y-o-y. If you think it's easy to short things in a volatile market like this, then you've probably never tried to...

I started getting defensive right after the election of 2016.

Modern history does not have an example of you know which party going on a tax cutting, over-spending, self-dealing, deregulation binge that did not end in a catastrophe. Add to that complete lack of competency when it comes to dealing with a not self-made crisis (a matter of time), and only a chump would think the good times would keep on rolling.

The market so far has absorbed the dumb trade war by pure optimism, and we only narrowly avoided a war with Iran. It all has been blind luck so far, and it just ran out.