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Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

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Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#121

Post by billfruit »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #76
lhorie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

And China may have tested every one in Wuhan, which has almost the same population as New York.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#122

Post by marvin »

kickopotomus wrote: post #94
marvin wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CDC’s lackluster response is absolutely confounding. One could suspect political involvement, but I can’t see who would stand to benefit.

The market and the current administration both benefit from a low count of confirmed cases. The administration has already been criticized for repeatedly attempting to slash the CDC budget[1] and terminating the epidemic response team[2]. Trump also keeps attempting to downplay the severity of the virus so it would not be a good look if the true spread of the disease was widely known. Knowledge of the spread would al…

That just doesn’t make sense to me. Uncontained, this disease will grow exponentially until tens of millions are infected at once, and it eventually burns itself out. But by then, the disaster will be obvious and we will have the same result. Only with more casualties.

Certainly anyone who had that sort of ulterior motive would understand this.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#123

Post by klmadfejno »

yreg wrote: post #73
alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

I don't agree. The sample is not representative of the whole. The only useful inference is a lower bound on how many cases there are, but this is more likely to mislead that inform.

If you know that officially confirmed cases don't reflect reality, and you care about reality, then the dashboard is not useful.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#124

Post by lurquer »

marvin wrote: post #86
alexandercrohde wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

CDC’s lackluster response is absolutely confounding. One could suspect political involvement, but I can’t see who would stand to benefit.

Why would you have any confidence with CDC?

Go browse through the weekly bulletins from 2003 regarding the SARS 'epidemic' in the US. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5218a2.htm

You'll read of the hundreds of 'confirmed' and 'probsble' cases and dire warnings and the like.

Then, when the dust settles and years pass, the CDC reluctantly admits the following: ------ In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to other parts of the world where SARS was spreading. SARS did not spread more widely in the community in the United States. https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html#outbreak ----

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#125

Post by davidw »

creaghpatr wrote: post #119
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't the CDC budget cut drastically by the current administration? You reap what you sow.

Nope this was misinformation sowed for political purposes: https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

The budget proposal included cuts to it, though, and some of the response teams that were in place in the government were cut.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#126

Post by [deleted] »

koheripbal wrote: post #101
yreg wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

The comment above is partially true. The data sources for each country are different, and thus have different error profiles. It's statistically incorrect to assume they can be merged and treated as a single data set. What is more useful is to examine well bounded and vetted subsets of the data. Once the South Korean cases become more mature in a couple weeks, I think we will have very high confidence mortality data.…

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#128

Post by [deleted] »

davidw wrote: post #125
creaghpatr wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope this was misinformation sowed for political purposes: https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

The budget proposal included cuts to it, though, and some of the response teams that were in place in the government were cut. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#129

Post by makomk »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #76
lhorie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

This is almost certainly getting cause and effect backwards. That is, South Korea has been testing a large number of people because there were a large number of likely cases to test, mainly due to that one cult inadvertantly spreading the coronavirus to so many people. You can see this in the number of tests that turn out positive: it's hovering somewhere around 4% in South Korea and slowly dropping now they've got through the really likely targets, but was in the high single digits earlier. Back when the CDC was only testing the most likely cases, their number was around 3%. A lot of the media reporting on this is dubious and might lead people to believe that the US had South Korea-level numbers all along and just wasn't spotting them due to not testing, but that's unlikely.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#130

Post by makomk »

usrusr wrote: post #70
alexandercrohde wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my perspective, if (whoever is in charge) was really in the business of providing accurate numbers, they would test a statistical sample of these 2,300 people to estimate what percentage of them actually have the virus.

Here in Germany a little known tidbit is that the routine sampling system that is already in place to observe influenza has started to check for SARS-CoV-2 as well. It's only a sampling of people sick enough to visit a doctor (not whole population random sampling), but at least this sampling is not limited to people with a known infection path which would completely blindside you to community spread. I don't think th…

I think the CDC has been rolling SARS-CoV-2 testing out to the US influenza surveillance system. They actually tried to do this in mid-February but ran into problems with the testing kits. Obviously this would have left the US in a much better position to monitor it, though I doubt that'd stop wild theories about how it was everywhere spreading virally.
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