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Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

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Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#101

Post by koheripbal »

yreg wrote: post #73
alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

The comment above is partially true. The data sources for each country are different, and thus have different error profiles.

It's statistically incorrect to assume they can be merged and treated as a single data set.

What is more useful is to examine well bounded and vetted subsets of the data.

Once the South Korean cases become more mature in a couple weeks, I think we will have very high confidence mortality data.

Including poor data quality sources will just introduce biases.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#102

Post by LifeLiverTransp »

yreg wrote: post #73
alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

We know by now that chinas numbers are heavily doctored. They have quotas for allowed corona cases per month, everything else gets a diffrent diagnosis.

Its exactly this- Garbage in, nice deviation from the exponential curve out.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#103

Post by tunesmith »

DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

I think people just have to let go of the sense that these numbers are anything other than a snapshot in time. It's not like something gets written down in a book somewhere that the great Covid-19 of 2020 had a case fatality rate of 3.4 / 5.7 / whatever. It's just a ratio between a numerator and a denominator, and both of those numbers are changing at different rates as time passes, as testing increases, as containment practices change, etc.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#104

Post by LifeLiverTransp »

SkyPuncher wrote: post #74
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's…

The goddess of triage lifts her steely finger. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#105

Post by adventured »

Alupis wrote: post #87
pieix wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per CDC numbers [0], in the US the death rate of the flu for the 2018-19 season was roughly 0.1%, an order of magnitude lower than the number quoted above. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

That's interesting! Thanks for the link. It only proves my point further. From your link, 34,200 people died from the Flu in the US last year - and not a single person is panicked about those numbers.

> and not a single person is panicked about those numbers.

That's for a very obvious reason. If 40 million people in the US get Covid, as with the flu, it will probably kill between 500k and 1m people.

That's unlikely to happen based on what we know so far. However if two million people get it, that will kill as many as the flu and produce ~200,000 ICU cases. That's far beyond what the US healthcare system can handle on top of routine circumstances.

Along with a drastically higher mortality rate, Covid also produces a far higher rate of ICU outcomes than flu does. It swamps healthcare systems, as we saw so dramatically in China.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#106

Post by raisedbyninjas »

nickcw wrote: post #75

If you prefer your WHO data in tabular form, some wikipedia volunteers have made this page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coron... It also shows the doubling rate, which seems to be about 4 days outside China.

Assuming a consistent growth rate, that's 84 days until U.S. population is infected.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#107

Post by cm2187 »

yreg wrote: post #73
alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

You are right but unfortunately almost everyone calculates the mortality rate based on confirmed cases alone, and that leads to a gross over-estimation of the dangerosity of this virus. So these visualisations are still kind of misleading in a way.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#108

Post by bobbles »

cm2187 wrote: post #107
yreg wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

You are right but unfortunately almost everyone calculates the mortality rate based on confirmed cases alone, and that leads to a gross over-estimation of the dangerosity of this virus. So these visualisations are still kind of misleading in a way.

Yeah but if every virus is modelled this way then the data is representative...

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#109

Post by JoeAltmaier »

cm2187 wrote: post #107
yreg wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data. You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

You are right but unfortunately almost everyone calculates the mortality rate based on confirmed cases alone, and that leads to a gross over-estimation of the dangerosity of this virus. So these visualisations are still kind of misleading in a way.

Isn't that true of all flu viruses, every year? Meaning this measure is still valid to compare with other flu epidemics.

So that leaves this one at 10X or more fatalities, however you calculate it.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#110

Post by JoeAltmaier »

marvin wrote: post #86
alexandercrohde wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

CDC’s lackluster response is absolutely confounding. One could suspect political involvement, but I can’t see who would stand to benefit.

Wasn't the CDC budget cut drastically by the current administration? You reap what you sow.
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