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Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

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Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#71

Post by Alupis »

DennisP wrote: post #67
Alupis wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

That's what I mean by the "mild cases that are never diagnosed."

Well sure, but we could say that exact thing about the common flu too.

If you're sick enough to go to the doctor and be diagnosed with the flu, there's likely an increased chance of it being fatal (in that your symptoms are extreme or you're already high-risk, ie. elderly or in poor health).

Otherwise, like most folks, you just get better on your own in a few days.

With the flu killing 10's of thousands every year, and nobody bats an eye... I'm not particularly concerned about COVID-19. It's mostly a media PR stunt at this point - designed to whip up fear and clicks. Swine Flu anyone?

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#72

Post by porlex »

thrownblown wrote: post #62
whatshisface wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are R0 and transmission probability estimates out there. If you sniff around I think you might find the study you're asking for. As usual, media outlets are not scientific, so if you want proactive understanding (as opposed to reactive reporting) you will need to follow the literature yourself. Too bad there is no news service for that.

i smell a market opportunity

I think that some of the science adjacent podcasts which provide in depth show note and literature analysis for people willing to pay 10/15 bucks a month are a step in that direction.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#73

Post by yreg »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

This dashboard is not intended to visualize computed estimates from models. It tracks the official confirmed cases, which is a very different and useful piece of data.

You are unfair by stating it is garbage and misrepresenting what it shows (confirmed cases vs. estimated cases).

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#74

Post by SkyPuncher »

DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely.

The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's 330 million.

That doesn't account for baseline ICU/vent usage, which is estimated at at ~70% occupancy rate with 3 in 10 currently needing mechanical vents [1].

A fuzzy summary is 500k infections in the use will utilize all existing mechanical ventilators.

[0] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 - this was 2010, but the most recent data I could easily find. [1] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23963122

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#76

Post by alexandercrohde »

lhorie wrote: post #59
alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries.

South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1]

I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases."

1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/coronavir...

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#77

Post by DennisP »

SkyPuncher wrote: post #74
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's…

That's been worrying me. If we swamp our treatment infrastructure, the death rate could go up significantly.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#78

Post by vonmoltke »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #76
lhorie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

> I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that.

It's right in the page you linked:

> If you are experiencing fever, cough or shortness of breath, and traveled to an area where COVID-19 is spreading, call or go to your health care provider. Your provider will work with the Health Department to determine if you need COVID-19 testing.

Right now, the city is only testing symptomatic people that have been outside the country recently to one of the five nations with widespread cases, and people in direct contact with confirmed cases in the city. It's a (possibly too) conservative rationale, but it is a rationale.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#80

Post by codeulike »

SkyPuncher wrote: post #74
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's…

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of whats going on.
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