Waymo Via • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo Via

#251

Post by Gustomaximus » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:10 AM UTC

jliptzin wrote: post #73

ckmiller wrote: post #41

I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles. Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some decent timing, at which point the…

This is easy to prevent. First of all, it’d be crammed with cameras. If it’s truly unmanned, there wouldn’t be a steering wheel, so it would be impossible for a human to drive, even if a robber could somehow gain access to the locked cabin. The trailer can also be secure with heavy locks. I suppose you could brute force your way into the cabin, but you’d need another truck to load the goods onto. So what’s the plan,…

Yep, this is what doesn't make sense, if its so remote the cops cant get there quickly, its also remote enough the thieves cant get away quickly.

And a highway patrol type vehicle is coming in a bunch faster than lorries are getting away.

Re: Waymo Via

#252

Post by Pfhreak » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:15 AM UTC

Ididntdothis wrote: post #207

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

“what Waymo is doing to help support the existing drivers, ” Waymo should be doing nothing. Companies should work on improving technology. The problem is to distribute the gains. That’s what social safety nets are for. And progressive taxation should help to distribute gains from technological progress widely instead instead of only to a few capitalists. I am aware that this may be an unpopular opinion.

I mean, totally. Gimme that progressive tax structure and strong social safety net any day of the year. But that sounds like a harder problem to solve in the US than autonomous driving.

Re: Waymo Via

#253

Post by dntbnmpls » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:21 AM UTC

dcgudeman wrote: post #240

predictmktegirl wrote: post #210

With how much money everyone is spending, wouldn't it just be cheaper to build a private cross-country interstate where only AI drivers are allowed. Let humans drive the trucks to this interstate then let the AI take over. It seems like almost all the edge cases would be solved if you just got rid of other human drivers and let the vehicles network with one another.

When first reading this question I thought it was an obvious "no", but I looked into it's surprisingly close. Total cost of interstate highway system: $128.9 billion [1]. Total invested in self driving technology as of 2017: $80 billion [2]. [1] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/faq.cfm#question6 [2] https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-sel...

> Total cost of interstate highway system: $128.9 billion [1].

That's in 1991. So with inflation, it would be $244 billion today. Also, I suspect the $128.9 billion figure itself was not inflation adjusted.

> Total invested in self driving technology as of 2017: $80 billion [2].

Wow, that's a lot more than I expected. But you have to keep in mind that once self driving is "solved", it will work on all highways around the world. If you think about how much it cost to build all the highways around the world, it's way past the trillion dollar mark.

Re: Waymo Via

#254

Post by Gustomaximus » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:23 AM UTC

Traster wrote: post #140

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

This is the problem of modern democracies in a nutshell. We saw the same thing with free trade. International free trade and movement of capital is claimed to increase the overall wealth of a nation whilst massively negatively impacting a small portion of the population (outsourcing clothing manufacturing gives everyone cheaper clothes but makes clothing factory workers in 1st world countries redundant). The huge cor…

A big part of government duty in capitalism (and often forgotten) is to keep a level playing field. That is what capitalism thrives on, competition but restricted to stop powerful groups exploiting others.

And I think this is important if we want to continue in free trade. We need to do things like have better requirements for pollution, global worker treatment rules and all sort of things so countries aren't competing on who can abuse people/enviroment the most, but on innovation and skill set. Further I think we need some global consensus on minimum tax rates. These aren't traditionally in the WTO as far as I know but feel they need to be working in in the future to create something closer to a level playing field to be part of any trading block.

Re: Waymo Via

#255

Post by petre » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:32 AM UTC

danans wrote: post #208

jpitz wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On top of that, I doubt any human trucker is defending their load against two humans with shotguns, and that doesn't happen today enough to make the news. True, but if you aren't assaulting / endangering a driver, then the crime is lower-risk.

But if you are robbing an autonomous vehicle, you're probably going to be recorded doing it, and fleeing, which raises your risk because it leaves a pretty strong evidence trail. Yes, ski masks can be used to obscure your face, but car makes can be tracked if the getaway car has no plates. If this becomes a frequent enough issue to matter economically, then perhaps we should start looking into what incentivizes stuff…

The thiefs use a laser to blind the cameras. Or a mirror to reflect the sun. Or spray paint. Or a smokescreen. Or other solutions. Easy.

Re: Waymo Via

#256

Post by petre » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:42 AM UTC

derefr wrote: post #177

notatoad wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does this sort of critique keep coming up in HN threads on autonomous vehicles? have autonomous cars really gotten so good that "what if violent criminals try to attack it" is the only criticism left? I'm pretty sure not hitting cyclists is still a much larger problem than accidentally wandering into the plot of an action movie. less interesting, i guess. theft is an insurance problem. If there's no human driver…

One large difference is that a lot of people hold back from theft purely because there's a human involved. Doing illegal things to human beings is a whole higher tier of scary, compared to doing those same illegal things to robots. Consider the difference between robbery and shoplifting. One is the domain of rare sociopaths; the other is common-enough to be almost a subculture among teenagers in certain areas. Robbin…

Pirate drones? Really? In the real world autonomous systems get hacked and bevome the "pirate" drones themselves. It's quite boring, I know.

Re: Waymo Via

#257

Post by KKKKkkkk1 » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 7:23 AM UTC

ckmiller wrote: post #41

I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles. Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some decent timing, at which point the…

If I wanted to bring this discussion even further into science-fiction territory, I'd bring up the idea that the AI truck needs to be armed so that it can defend itself.

Re: Waymo Via

#258

Post by judge2020 » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 7:41 AM UTC

Gustomaximus wrote: post #254

Traster wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the problem of modern democracies in a nutshell. We saw the same thing with free trade. International free trade and movement of capital is claimed to increase the overall wealth of a nation whilst massively negatively impacting a small portion of the population (outsourcing clothing manufacturing gives everyone cheaper clothes but makes clothing factory workers in 1st world countries redundant). The huge cor…

A big part of government duty in capitalism (and often forgotten) is to keep a level playing field. That is what capitalism thrives on, competition but restricted to stop powerful groups exploiting others. And I think this is important if we want to continue in free trade. We need to do things like have better requirements for pollution, global worker treatment rules and all sort of things so countries aren't competi…

Capitalism goes as far as making sure there are at least two competitors in a space, and with all of the companies going at self-driving trucks there won't be a problem there. Other than that, the goal of capitalism is to give consumers [big box stores] the best possible product [Delivery trucks] at the lowest possible prices [not having to pay a human 50k/yr].

Re: Waymo Via

#259

Post by judge2020 » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 7:48 AM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #245

paxys wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These concerns are always overblown. The switch to autonomous vehicles isn't happening overnight. It'll be a generational change, and the current drivers will simply retire. If there's a young kid today who is dreaming of growing up and becoming a truck driver - yeah he's in trouble.

Depends on how fast it happens. Long-haul trucking is the most easily automated driving, and it has the strongest financial incentive. The lifespan of a semi truck is ~15 years, while the career of a trucker will be 40 years. Even if 2/3rds of truckers retire before automation hurts them, that still would leave us with more than a million long-term unemployed.

I imagine last-mile driving on regular roads might be as big a hurdle here as it is for parcel delivery.

Re: Waymo Via

#260

Post by dodobirdlord » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 8:12 AM UTC

petre wrote: post #255

danans wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if you are robbing an autonomous vehicle, you're probably going to be recorded doing it, and fleeing, which raises your risk because it leaves a pretty strong evidence trail. Yes, ski masks can be used to obscure your face, but car makes can be tracked if the getaway car has no plates. If this becomes a frequent enough issue to matter economically, then perhaps we should start looking into what incentivizes stuff…

The thiefs use a laser to blind the cameras. Or a mirror to reflect the sun. Or spray paint. Or a smokescreen. Or other solutions. Easy.

> The thiefs use a laser to blind the cameras. Or a mirror to reflect the sun. Or spray paint. Or a smokescreen. Or other solutions. Easy.

None of these would work, except maybe "other solutions".