Waymo Via • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo Via

#241

Post by smileysteve » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:13 AM UTC

notatoad wrote: post #174

ckmiller wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're correct, autonomous vehicles are absolutely not to the point where highway robbery is a prime concern. But even if they were, the spoofing issue isn't just another tough problem to solve. It's a potential arms race. Faking out machine learning systems is rapidly progressing from a few "fun proof-of-concept" examples to a serious area of study, and we've already seen it (gently) applied to autonomous vehicles […

> It's a potential arms race but it's currently solved by one guy sitting in a truck, so it's not really a potential arms race that can escalate too far before you fall back to the one guy sitting in a truck. worst case scenario, you replace a driver with an actual security guard who is trained as a security guard and can focus on security instead of driving.

In a self driving world of well behaved traffic, police and highway patrol are going to need some way to maintain their jobs.

Re: Waymo Via

#242

Post by wpietri » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:13 AM UTC

SigmundA wrote: post #67

ckmiller wrote: post #41

I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles. Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some decent timing, at which point the…

Two things I don't get in the current focus on self driving: 1. Urban navigation. Obviously the end game, but just exit to exit interstate navigation would be a much better near term goal and greatly benefit truck drivers along with anyone doing a road trip. 2. Unmanned. I would think it would be a long time before you would have unmanned trucks going down the highway. Seems much more obvious to have a driver / custo…

I expect you're right about keeping the driver around but napping. The robot can do the highway parts, and then wake up the human for the much more challenging parts, from highway exit to pulling up properly in the right loading bay.

And then I think the next step after that is to have local humans meet the trucks right off the highway, sort of like how pilot boats meet cargo ships and guide them into port. The truck cab stays empty for most of the run, and drivers get to sleep in their beds each night.

Re: Waymo Via

#243

Post by Polylactic_acid » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:15 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #202

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

These concerns are always overblown. The switch to autonomous vehicles isn't happening overnight. It'll be a generational change, and the current drivers will simply retire. If there's a young kid today who is dreaming of growing up and becoming a truck driver - yeah he's in trouble.

The problem is no one is saying not to get in to these industries. In fact quite often there are posts on forums and even on HN stating how you should become a truck driver or coal miner because it pays well and doesn't require education.

Re: Waymo Via

#244

Post by raghavtoshniwal » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:19 AM UTC

predictmktegirl wrote: post #212

joliv wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like rail?

You're not wrong but the unit economics are quite different.

Except with 1 major twist. The longest most and used stretches could be automated while the "last mile" could use a human. Best of both worlds.

Re: Waymo Via

#245

Post by wpietri » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:19 AM UTC

paxys wrote: post #202

Pfhreak wrote: post #89

If Waymo is successful, there are potentially massive impacts to the population of the US. Trucking is a major industry. The Luddites weren't mad about the advancement of technology, they didn't destroy looms out of religious or anti-technological ideals. Many of them were skilled loom operators. They were squeezed out of their jobs by the race to the bottom, and they were angry that there wasn't any consideration fo…

These concerns are always overblown. The switch to autonomous vehicles isn't happening overnight. It'll be a generational change, and the current drivers will simply retire. If there's a young kid today who is dreaming of growing up and becoming a truck driver - yeah he's in trouble.

Depends on how fast it happens. Long-haul trucking is the most easily automated driving, and it has the strongest financial incentive. The lifespan of a semi truck is ~15 years, while the career of a trucker will be 40 years. Even if 2/3rds of truckers retire before automation hurts them, that still would leave us with more than a million long-term unemployed.

Re: Waymo Via

#246

Post by r00fus » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:29 AM UTC

Igelau wrote: post #215

abvdasker wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Occam's Razor here being to create some kind of automated firearm attached to the truck, the deadly superhuman speed and accuracy of which would act as a deterrent to freight thieves. This solution would have the extra benefit of adding some real suspense to the hijackings and robberies that do happen. This is a serious comment and I can't think of any possible way in which this plan could backfire. There is nothing…

> Occam's Razor I don't think that means what you think it means.

It's like Magnavolt, except works on people outside the vehicle.

only legal in 80s dystopian movies.

Re: Waymo Via

#247

Post by nishmastime » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:29 AM UTC

ckmiller wrote: post #41

I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles. Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some decent timing, at which point the…

This is like pointing out how easy it is to rob a house or someone on the street. All you need to do is break a window (made of glass!) Or approach them alone at night with a gruff voice. Life hack! Why isn't everyone abusing this free money?!

Re: Waymo Via

#248

Post by beams_of_light » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:37 AM UTC

ckmiller wrote: post #41

I competed in the DARPA Urban Challenge, back in 2007. While we were watching the finalists trying to sort out the world's first fully-automated traffic jam, the conversation turned to how easy it is to manipulate these vehicles. Imagine a remote stretch of highway frequented by automated 18-wheelers. All that's required to bring the truck to a screeching halt is a bedsheet and some decent timing, at which point the…

These vehicles will likely have plenty of surveillance surrounding them - not only for instances of heists, but for evidence to be used in insurance claims and police/fire investigations for collisions and other mishaps. Detracting from self-driving vehicles is puzzling to me, though. I would rather see the tech succeed and would like to see us get there as soon as possible. We should accept that we might have to adapt to them a little, and that our infrastructure may need to change in some ways to better accommodate AI. It's insane to me that we aren't laying sensors, reflectors, conductors, or whatever else would make self-driving vehicles safer and more effective in our roadways already.

Re: Waymo Via

#249

Post by bobbylarrybobby » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 5:42 AM UTC

scythe wrote: post #232

predictmktegirl wrote: post #210

With how much money everyone is spending, wouldn't it just be cheaper to build a private cross-country interstate where only AI drivers are allowed. Let humans drive the trucks to this interstate then let the AI take over. It seems like almost all the edge cases would be solved if you just got rid of other human drivers and let the vehicles network with one another.

The problem is that the whole point of trucks is that they can go almost anywhere. Replace that with dedicated roads and you might have cheaper unit economics or whatever but you still have a rail-like distribution network.

It’s like rail, except the autonomous trucks can leave their designated road, wait for a human to take the wheel, and then head straight into town

Re: Waymo Via

#250

Post by dontreact » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 6:04 AM UTC

predictmktegirl wrote: post #210

With how much money everyone is spending, wouldn't it just be cheaper to build a private cross-country interstate where only AI drivers are allowed. Let humans drive the trucks to this interstate then let the AI take over. It seems like almost all the edge cases would be solved if you just got rid of other human drivers and let the vehicles network with one another.

Is there room to build a second interstate system on top of the one that already exists? Seems like the cost could be a lot higher now than it was when there was no development.