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Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

blogs.sciencemag.org

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Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#161

Post by mellavora »

kingbirdy wrote: post #137
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vs what? a million dead? They might have some opinion on whether its worth risking a black eye for a quick vaccine.

I believe OPs point is about considering the longer term effects. If we prevent a million Covid-19 deaths with a rushed vaccine, but the vaccine kills even a few people and brings anti-vaxx into full swing and we get a nationwide diphtheria outbreak instead, are we really coming out ahead?

And as evidence, there are numerous known bad side effects from prior rushed vaccines. The risk is very real.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#163

Post by [deleted] »

bluGill wrote: post #134
dekhn wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious risk here is that you're combining a rush job with limited oversight, and large-scale distribution. So any mistake that would have been caught by the existing process will instead have the potential to roll into a global disaster.

Compared to 2% chance of death from the virus? I'll take a 2% chance of blindness over 2% chance of death for example. Of course we don't know what the odds are for the negative side effects.

[deleted]

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#164

Post by shostack »

cryoshon wrote: post #55

a vaccine might be 18 months away, if we're lucky and divert resources to the effort. if we're unlucky, it could be four to five years or even longer. remember, there's no guarantee that we can even make a vaccine for any arbitrary viral disease. we can't do nothing while we wait for a vaccine. placeholder antiviral therapies are also a non-starter. we can't manufacture the drugs at the scale we need them unless we m…

Unfortunately, while that may be what's needed, many do not trust the current administration to execute on such extreme measures properly or appropriately.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#165

Post by pier25 »

anu7df wrote: post #154

Yes. It is worse than a regular flu. But, if you look at statistics from S. Korea, the only country with a substantial infection and trust worthy numbers (as in they test heavily), the death rate is around 0.6% overall. So not the end of the world, but nothing to be complacent about either. If the White house will get out of the way and let the system work, we may still have time to mitigate the worst here in the USA…

You don't trust Italy with their numbers?

Last time I checked it was around 3% there.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-ch...

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#166

Post by katmannthree »

haunter wrote: post #162

So some comments here say 60-70% global infection [0] and 3-4% death rate [1]. Is this really possible? That would be like ~150 million deaths. 0, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485485 1, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485692

It could be worse than that once the hospitals are overloaded / out of equipment needed for artificial respiration. From the numbers coming out of China ~20% of cases are "serious," ~5% "critical."

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#167

Post by bonif »

aazaa wrote: post #82

For those suggesting that a COVID-19 vaccine can somehow be fast tracked, consider what happens if something goes wrong during deployment to the population. The US has an active, very vocal anti-vax community. They've been growing and gaining ground for decades. The first sign of trouble of any kind with a new COVID-19 vaccine would result in a backlash of biblical proportions. It could be so strong as to derail any…

I'm in Italy, and we had a very vocal no-vax movement in recent years. Since coronavirus they disappeared

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#168

Post by carapace »

kingbirdy wrote: post #137
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vs what? a million dead? They might have some opinion on whether its worth risking a black eye for a quick vaccine.

I believe OPs point is about considering the longer term effects. If we prevent a million Covid-19 deaths with a rushed vaccine, but the vaccine kills even a few people and brings anti-vaxx into full swing and we get a nationwide diphtheria outbreak instead, are we really coming out ahead?

I think a much more likely scenario in the event of a bad plague would be that angry mobs will put anti-vaxxers up against the wall and shoot them.

(I am NOT advocating this! Looking over history that seems to me to be a more likely reaction.)

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#169

Post by WaltPurvis »

bhanhfo wrote: post #49

Scientific agreement seems to be that ~60-70% of the population will get infected. It is just not sure if within months or (hopefully!) years. And no drugs within at least one year. Edit: Source => Original in German here: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-e... Express UK translated it here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-n... The guy interview is Prof. Drosten. He…

You linked to the estimate of one scientist. It's stretching things to say "scientific agreement" with the implication that there's a consensus in the narrow band of 60-70% based on a data set of one.

I've seen estimates quite a bit lower than that, like 20%.

Although it is disturbing that 20% is about the lowest estimate I can recall seeing. I don't believe there are many (or any) scientists saying this will be a minor blip that only infects 1% or fewer. And 20% would be devastating, let alone 60-70%.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#170

Post by metalliqaz »

mhb wrote: post #136
metalliqaz wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

of course there is, it's just a lesser cost than the cost of approving bad ones

How can you possibly know that?

It's about psychology, not numbers.

the parent post referenced Thalidomide. a disaster like would seriously shake public confidence in medicine, across the board

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