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Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

blogs.sciencemag.org

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Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#81
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

[deleted]

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#82
For those suggesting that a COVID-19 vaccine can somehow be fast tracked, consider what happens if something goes wrong during deployment to the population.

The US has an active, very vocal anti-vax community. They've been growing and gaining ground for decades.

The first sign of trouble of any kind with a new COVID-19 vaccine would result in a backlash of biblical proportions. It could be so strong as to derail any attempt at a follower.

For this reason, I expect to see two things:

1. withering pressure from the current administration to cut corners on testing any new vaccine

2. a good chance for disastrous consequences resulting from (1)

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#83
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

Thanks for the reply. So my doctor is wrong then? (It wouldn't be the first time...)

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#84
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

Spanish flu was also "just a flu" and killed between 17 and 50million people world wide

Covid19 is more contagious and more deadly than "regular flu"

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#85
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

It's 1-2 orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu. Some estimates are between 2 and 4% fatality rate for the Covid-19. Flu is 0.1%. That fatality rate average masks that it is far deadlier for the elderly and high risk patients, with as much as 10-20% fatality rate for that demographic.

Thanks for the reply. What is the fatality rate among the elderly and high risk patients for seasonal flu? (say, in the US if there are no worldwide statistics).

I understand the real problem with any flu-like disease is precisely with the elderly and high risk patients. Usually, of course there are always cases of healthy people who die from a flu.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#86
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

Anecdotal reporting is useless. Read some more, and stop spreading false sense of security. That could actually get somebody killed.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#87
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

[deleted]

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#88
post #82

For those suggesting that a COVID-19 vaccine can somehow be fast tracked, consider what happens if something goes wrong during deployment to the population. The US has an active, very vocal anti-vax community. They've been growing and gaining ground for decades. The first sign of trouble of any kind with a new COVID-19 vaccine would result in a backlash of biblical proportions. It could be so strong as to derail any…

Vs what? a million dead? They might have some opinion on whether its worth risking a black eye for a quick vaccine.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#89
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

To be clear, the article says "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." The issue is with reporting (the denominator). The bar for "reporting" COVID-19 positive is very high relative to the flu, especially as some countries (ahem USA) don't / didn't even permit testing of all symptomatic patients.

So yes maybe it is orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu but it doesn't seem clear at all that we have sufficient information to say that it is 3.4%

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#90
post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

It was 1% in diamond princess, and cruises are known to be full of retirees so it should be a lot lower than that in the general population. I believe the reason it looks so high is severe lack of testing.
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