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Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

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Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#101

Post by the_af »

capkutay wrote: post #94
sachdevap wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%. Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age plays a significant factor. The IFR is about 0.2% for young healthy people, while it is quite dangerous for people over 60 with existing conditions. https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...

Thanks! That's interesting. I suspected there's a methodological flaw in assuming actual death rates from the sample of detected cases who died.

We need this voice of reason. Otherwise we're just panicking.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#102

Post by asjw »

sachdevap wrote: post #77
the_af wrote: post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

It's still a very small number.

BTW most of the deaths caused by the flu are not direct deaths.

It kills about 10 thousands of people a year in Italy (58 millions residents) while covid-19 has killed only 59 people and recovery rate is very high

Meanwhile pneumonia alone in Italy kills 13 thousands people/year

The real difference?

With the regular flu people stay home and die there, with this one they are being taken to the hospitals, even if there are no symptoms, and the healthcare system is under a lot of pressure for that

Draconian measure are just for that: avoiding a total crash of the healthcare system

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#103

Post by jokowueu »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #29

I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the s…

Very true for example Mefloquine was developed by the United States Army in the 1970s

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#104

Post by the_af »

pavelrub wrote: post #95
the_af wrote: post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

1. It is both more contagious and lethal than flu. There were estimates that 40% to 70% of the world population will eventually get infected. Depending on how the world responds to this - millions might die. 2. This isn't flu. The same amount of people will die from flu this year as last year. COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths on top of that. Saying that we shouldn't worry about it because every year many of peop…

To be clear, I'm not saying we shouldn't worry. We should worry about the flu too. And if COVID19 is more dangerous, we should definitely look into it.

I'm just questioning the panic-mongering. We should be scientific about this, not panic like those guys in the media.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#105

Post by edmundsauto »

capkutay wrote: post #94
sachdevap wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%. Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age plays a significant factor. The IFR is about 0.2% for young healthy people, while it is quite dangerous for people over 60 with existing conditions. https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...

Just curious, what is the mortality rate of the regular flu for young healthy people?

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#106

Post by wh-uws »

bhanhfo wrote: post #49

Scientific agreement seems to be that ~60-70% of the population will get infected. It is just not sure if within months or (hopefully!) years. And no drugs within at least one year. Edit: Source => Original in German here: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-e... Express UK translated it here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-n... The guy interview is Prof. Drosten. He…

Will definitely need to link to a source that specifically mentions the 70% figure to stop the downvoting.

I have not seen speculation like that only numbers about the virality and mortality rate (both much lower than that)

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#107

Post by opaque »

kiterunner2346 wrote: post #61

The key may not be a vaccine but simply staying alive. Covid-19 kills with a "cytokine storm": cytochine release syndrome(cytokine storm): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome Article discussing coronavirus et al and cytochine storm: "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... From the article:…

Take curcumin papers with a pinch of salt. It's a pan assay interference compound (PAIN), prone to misleading results. Pubmed is full of thousands of papers claiming it solves all manner of medical problems, leading it to be dubbed an 'improbable natural panacea'.

See this article, by the same author as it happens.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2017/01/12/cu...

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#108

Post by kiterunner2346 »

empath75 wrote: post #71
kiterunner2346 wrote: post #61

The key may not be a vaccine but simply staying alive. Covid-19 kills with a "cytokine storm": cytochine release syndrome(cytokine storm): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome Article discussing coronavirus et al and cytochine storm: "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... From the article:…

I haven’t seen anyone say it kills with a cytokine storm — spanish flu did that.

Title: "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

from the Lancet article:

"In view of the high amount of cytokines induced by SARS-CoV,22, 24 MERS-CoV,25, 26 and 2019-nCoV infections, corticosteroids were used frequently for treatment of patients with severe illness, for possible benefit by reducing inflammatory-induced lung injury. However, current evidence in patients with SARS and MERS suggests that receiving corticosteroids did not have an effect on mortality, but rather delayed viral clearance.27, 28, 29 Therefore, corticosteroids should not be routinely given systemically, according to WHO interim guidance."

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#109

Post by bhanhfo »

cactus2093 wrote: post #78
bhanhfo wrote: post #49

Scientific agreement seems to be that ~60-70% of the population will get infected. It is just not sure if within months or (hopefully!) years. And no drugs within at least one year. Edit: Source => Original in German here: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-e... Express UK translated it here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-n... The guy interview is Prof. Drosten. He…

Sources? It seems far too early and there isn't enough reliable observational data, much less scientific trial data, available for broad "scientific agreement". Although obviously the accuracy of China's data is in question, it's promising that they were able to get the reproduction rate below 1 pretty quickly. And within Wuhan itself the spreading seems to have slowed with something like 0.6% of the population of 11…

Source added in my post above. The number comes from this guy: https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/ad...

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#110

Post by hutzlibu »

xiphias2 wrote: post #98
Robotbeat wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but the death rate of COVID-19 may not be high enough to justify a huge increase in risk tolerance.

Dearh rate for sever cases is huge. We'll get the first test results at end of march/start of april. If I have 30% chance of dying I take anything that lowers the chance significantly.

Even if the side effects are cancer in a year? Strong, consistent headache? Organ poisening? Permanent weakening of immune system? ...

And you would have to be very old and with strong preconditions, to have a 30% death chance with corvid-19. And then any side effects would be even more fatal.

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