Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#91

Post by diego » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #83

sachdevap wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

Thanks for the reply. So my doctor is wrong then? (It wouldn't be the first time...)

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died"

The keyword here is reported. We don't know how many unreported cases there are, it could be 10x the reported ones. In the US it's much more than that, given that almost nobody has been tested. We have 9 deaths so far and probably thousands of infected people.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#92

Post by the_af » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #86

the_af wrote: post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

Anecdotal reporting is useless. Read some more, and stop spreading false sense of security. That could actually get somebody killed.

Not sure if you're accusing me of something, but just in case: I'm not spreading a false sense of security. I do think prophylaxis and management of the disease is urgent. I think the same of the flu. People at risk tend to die from these diseases. I think health systems of every country should deal with the infection, as well as manage seasonal flu. If anything, I'm asking why people worry more about this than about regular flu, when we know the flu can be deadly.

I'm asking for data, projections, etc. Do we know it's more serious? If so, the data is welcome. As usual, judging by the media, coronavirus is the apocalypsis and journalists are playing this up for all it's worth.

Some people already told me the measured death rate is already higher than regular flu. That's data I can understand. I'd like to know how this compares with initial death rate of any new type of flu, before it stabilizes itself.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#93

Post by mhb » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

blobbers wrote: post #47

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #29

I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the s…

`...would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug.` Thanks for saying this, and rightfully so! Approving a bad drug in the world where distribution channels are very well set up could have disastrous effects. We can point to things like the opioid crisis in the USA right now - a drug that is so addictive it should have never been put into use the way it was.

I don't understand the "rightfully so!" There is a real cost to not approving good drugs in order to avoid approving bad ones.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#94

Post by capkutay » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

sachdevap wrote: post #77

the_af wrote: post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%.

Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age plays a significant factor. The IFR is about 0.2% for young healthy people, while it is quite dangerous for people over 60 with existing conditions.

https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#95

Post by pavelrub » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #74

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a…

1. It is both more contagious and lethal than flu. There were estimates that 40% to 70% of the world population will eventually get infected. Depending on how the world responds to this - millions might die.

2. This isn't flu. The same amount of people will die from flu this year as last year. COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths on top of that. Saying that we shouldn't worry about it because every year many of people die of flu, is like saying that we shouldn't make a big deal of the 2004 Indian tsunami because many people die of drowning anyway.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#96

Post by eezurr » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #83

sachdevap wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

Thanks for the reply. So my doctor is wrong then? (It wouldn't be the first time...)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#/...

Also, the death rate is 1.6% outside of China

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#D...

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#97

Post by vondur » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #69

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #29

I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the s…

I agree, but the death rate of COVID-19 may not be high enough to justify a huge increase in risk tolerance.

You may be correct about the death rate, but the disruption that it's causing the global economy may change the calculus in the FDA.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#98

Post by xiphias2 » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #69

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #29

I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the s…

I agree, but the death rate of COVID-19 may not be high enough to justify a huge increase in risk tolerance.

Dearh rate for sever cases is huge.

We'll get the first test results at end of march/start of april.

If I have 30% chance of dying I take anything that lowers the chance significantly.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#99

Post by techopoly » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #83

sachdevap wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The death rate of COVID-19 is at about 3.4% on average. In comparison, the death rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% in the US. No, it is not "like" the flu. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

Thanks for the reply. So my doctor is wrong then? (It wouldn't be the first time...)

I think most doctors make it a point to instill calm in their patients. And, the nature of their work is that they have likely dealt with emergency situations and dying patients, so they have seen the worst and have to have a way to handle these things. So they are coming from a different position than you, perhaps (maybe, maybe not).

Symptom-wise, as far as I can tell, COVID-19 can be similar to the flu. Especially for most people, who may not have much in the way of symptoms. So your doctor isn't wrong per se. But yes, the deadliness of the virus is much higher, unfortunately. So it is not quite similar in intensity, and it is a serious thing.

Re: Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

#100

Post by tomatocracy » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #36

anticensor wrote: post #26

This is SARS type 2; please stop using COVID-19. > distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it The virus is also called SARS-CoV-2.

I dunno, I think that one's on the scientists. Expecting the general public to maintain a nominal distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it isn't reasonable.

The concept is well enough understood by the general public I think in the context of HIV/AIDS so I'm not sure why it couldn't be here too.

I think it would be a useful concept for the general public to understand the distinction if there turn out to be significant numbers of asymptomatic but infectious people.