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My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

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Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#101

Post by rayshan »

tomerico wrote: post #60
rayshan wrote: post #52

Good insides on what companies can and cannot withstand a once-in-a-lifetime event. My look into the 2008 Great Recession was very helpful with my pattern matching. 98 out of 100 stocks lost money during that recession, but most of them did super well during the longest recovery period in U.S. history. Even AIG made people a bunch of money. Here's the full dataset of 1363 mid cap + stocks that traded during the 2008…

That is super interesting. You should probably submit it as a separate submission!

Thank you! I did a while back, will see if HN lets me do it again. Feel free to AMA!

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#102

Post by natalyarostova »

anthonypasq wrote: post #93
natalyarostova wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, some of us have family with underlying health conditions.

ok? Then do everything you normally would to avoid the flu. There is no difference.

At this point the amount of evidence showing this is different than the flu is so overwhelming that you're either grossly misinformed (likely) or being disingenuous (less likely).

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#103

Post by lbj »

gruez wrote: post #70
lbj wrote: post #46

Only thing interesting about this virus is 1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests, and 2) We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic

>1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests Did they stop protesting? Going into protest (crowded spaces, close contact with others) seems like a bad idea during a pandemic.

Corona's deathrate only exceeds 1% if you're older than 50 year sold IIRC. Dont know what the deathrate is for being a Hong Kong Protestor, but I doubt its much better.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#104

Post by koheripbal »

yodsanklai wrote: post #26

It's very hard to have an informed opinion on the virus. Different actors have different incentives. Medias try to sell ads, politicians want to be elected (or not held responsible), institutions like WHO are political (I don't really trust them after seeing their treatment of Taiwan) and have their own agendd, even experts have their own biases and are selected by medias. And we are all deeply biased, and tend to lo…

> my bet is that the virus itself is in the same league as a bad seasonal flu

The CDC has said the exact opposite of this. The WHO estimated an initial mortality rate of 3.4%, whereas the flu is well below 1%.

Your GP and some unnamed internet "expert" sources are wrong.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#105

Post by koheripbal »

crystaldev wrote: post #27

Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single d…

This is not factual. Do the math. Starting with a couple cases, it takes 10 generations (two months) for the numbers to be large enough to be noticeable.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#106

Post by ptah »

> containing the economic damage requires coordinated monetary and fiscal policy targeted more at specific cases of debt/liquidity-constrained entities rather than more blanket cuts in rates and broad increases in liquidity.

more bailouts? how about letting them take the consequences of their actions? they would have taken the upside so should accept the downside too instead of shifting it to taxpayers. how else will markets stay healthy if evolution is thwarted

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#107

Post by ptah »

gist wrote: post #4

> The fact of the matter is that history has shown that even big death tolls have been much bigger emotional affairs than sustained economic and market affairs. My look into the Spanish flu case, which I’m treating as our worst-case scenario, conveys this view; so do the other cases. The world was a vastly different place when the Spanish Flu happened. Think of all the things we have today that we depend on to operat…

good point, everything is too optimised and there's no slack anymore

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#109

Post by koheripbal »

rmolin88 wrote: post #36
tomerico wrote: post #31

Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India). Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapid…

Very true! But the second wave, when winter returns in October, hit even harder [0] See Deadly second wave section in the Spanish Flu [0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

This time, though, we will see it in advance as it tears through the Southern Hemisphere.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#110

Post by koheripbal »

Leary wrote: post #62
tomerico wrote: post #31

Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India). Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapid…

While i think you are right about that the coronavirus will most likely decline as the weather heats up, I think a better comparison to look at would be the Sars epidemic in 2003 rather than the flu. In that case, rather than diminishing rapidly in March, it diminished in May. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr... In either case, any step at delaying the spread of the virus will have…

...and that's not surprising given the vulnerability data we have on SARS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3265313/

COVID19 is likely very similar.

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