My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
linkedin.com
My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
1–10 of 116 posts
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#2> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens.
They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finally hits California? Mount Rainier erupts? The Yellowstone Caldera?
> The markets are being, and will continue to be, affected by these sorts of market players getting squeezed and forced to make market moves because of cash-flow issues rather than because of thoughtful fundamental analysis.
So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020?
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#3> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…
> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020?
I am busy, right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense.
(But I am not really that pessimistic. Somebody mentioned that the Spanish flu was a big impulse for providing national health care services. I think it can have a similar effect, somewhere.)
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#4> The fact of the matter is that history has shown that even big death tolls have been much bigger emotional affairs than sustained economic and market affairs. My look into the Spanish flu case, which I’m treating as our worst-case scenario, conveys this view; so do the other cases.
The world was a vastly different place when the Spanish Flu happened. Think of all the things we have today that we depend on to operate flawlessly that didn't exist back in 1918.
I guess the comparison I would make might be an airplane that is largely analog and manual back then vs. now stuffed with electronics. Take away those electronics and it can't fly manually. So much of our life depends on people to keep the electronics working that any impact to those and their functions (say the electric grid) would cause an immense amount of interconnected havoc.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#5I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies.
If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#6I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
> will be
Sounds like you have your conclusion without needing to wait for the results.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#7> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…
> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? I am busy, right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense. (But I am not really that pessimistic. Somebody mentioned that the Spanish flu was a big impulse for providing national health care services. I think it can have…
The cynic in me believes this was ensure there was a ready supply of healthy men for war fighting.
Now that wars are mechanized and we have nuclear weapons this is less of an impetus.
There might be a different effect here as preditary health care in the US is unpalatable in the best of times.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#8I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
Making such a comparison is non-trivial; does any highly developed western democracy share China's population size and density?
I'm more curious about how this will affect India, where the population situation is more similar to China's. I haven't seen any mention of the virus there in the news, yet.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#9I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
Not sure why you are getting downvotes, your post feels largely non-partisan, and the question is interesting.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#10I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
Making such a comparison is non-trivial; does any highly developed western democracy share China's population size and density? I'm more curious about how this will affect India, where the population situation is more similar to China's. I haven't seen any mention of the virus there in the news, yet.
Supposedly the climate may impede the virus’ ability to spread.
https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/02/26/will-housto...