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Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

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Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#101

Post by Der_Einzige »

irq11 wrote: post #90
ygggvg wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have parents and grandparents. I like people. Im an uncle of 3 young kids. I'm worries and don't think it is a problem if we would reduce the global economy fora year to get rid of it. Or that everyone on the planet should get vaccinated and should life more aware.

First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children. Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing every year during flu season. But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally, where we can sh…

You could immediately fund the CDC to "absurd" levels, such as by giving them say, 100 billion dollars. I think that would be far more effective than rate cuts which are likely far more "expensive" but won't actually help.

Though, I want to see the current CDC leadership out. They should not have silently removed their total tests done. The world needs to see their current incompetence as a lesson.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#102

Post by Der_Einzige »

wcoenen wrote: post #72
NicoJuicy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form ( I thought it was logarithmic even before yesterday). The amount of casualties seem to be in control. Okay, Iran is acting stupid. But we don't even do business with them. Tourism is minimal. Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old)

> Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form That's the global numbers, which are still dominated by China. In China there may have been a real slowdown thanks to draconian measures. But have a look at the WHO numbers excluding China. It's definitely still exponential. The doubling time has even been shrinking. My plot: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the num…

Plus, the Chinese are most likely lying to "save face"

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#103

Post by scarmig »

calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

2) needs a very key caveat. When you have access to medical care and are under 60 years old, mortality is very low. Even if you're old, access to medical care lowers mortality to less than the oft quoted 2% rate.

The issue is that mortality climbs rapidly for all age buckets if you don't have access to medical care. If and when the medical system buckles under load, things get dark very fast.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#104

Post by fermienrico »

smt88 wrote: post #75
calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

1b) Don't touch your face

Virus can penetrate through eyes, nose and mouse; but not skin. Adding that bit of a detail is important. "Oh I didn't touch my face, but I licked my fingers".

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#105

Post by scarmig »

Terrible take and wishful thinking; this article will not age well.

You can't write off the Diamond Princess as "well the people on it were old, so their mortality doesn't count." It's the one natural experiment where we do have good, hard numbers. In terms of access to treatment, they're the optimal scenario, and so it's likely that the mortality rate will be around 1% for older people with access to treatment. This is far higher than the flu and a disaster in itself.

But what makes this a mega-disaster is what happens when the medical system is overloaded. That's when you get the scary 2%+ overall mortality. And we are getting closer and closer to the point of no return where community transmission swamps all medical facilities. It is what happened in Wuhan, and it can happen in Western countries.

Beyond that, the author piles on as many optimistic assumptions as possible: every death is accurately counted! Millions of people are asymptomatically infected! The USA will be as effective as Singapore in responding! Cases are peaking and will start to decline! I'd usually refrain from calling something like that idiotic, but since he's more than happy to lodge insults like hysterical and witch hunt, yes, he's saying idiotic things.

The thing is, by approaching the issue with seriousness and diligence, it's possible to avoid that death spiral! China did in all of its other provinces. And, in a better and more applicable way, Singapore has responded with effectiveness and humanity.

But it seems like the main opinions among the ruling class in the US range from "it's just the flu" to "it's a hoax!"

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#107

Post by s1artibartfast »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #5

Mass hysteria ? I don't think that's the case, people are carefull, but don't seem to be scared. ( Belgium)

I think there a a number of cases where cities and individuals are acting irrationally. The city of Monetary, CA, is refusing to disembark a cruise ship from San Francisco, CA, which boarded less than a day before 100 miles away. San Francisco has not had any cases of the virus and the ship screened passengers for fever.

There is also a lot of phobia and persecution of Asian Americans, despite the fact that most US cases are not Asian.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#108

Post by kspacewalk2 »

ygggvg wrote: post #87
wmil wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard about heat before, but generally for the flu high (50%) humidity is very helpful.

It's low humidit. You can read why on Wikipedia

Incorrect. High humidity is thought to somewhat reduce flu transmission [0]

[0] https://www.google.com/search?q=flu+humidity

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#110

Post by scarmig »

irq11 wrote: post #90
ygggvg wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have parents and grandparents. I like people. Im an uncle of 3 young kids. I'm worries and don't think it is a problem if we would reduce the global economy fora year to get rid of it. Or that everyone on the planet should get vaccinated and should life more aware.

First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children. Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing every year during flu season. But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally, where we can sh…

There are obvious ways you can exchange economic growth for lower mortality. See: China. Within a month, it will have fewer active cases and daily new cases than the United States.

I suspect it will end up endemic, but the rate at which it infects everybody matters, a lot. That rate of new infection changes the load profile for the medical system, and it's when the system is overloaded that mortality skyrockets. Halving the infection rate could cut mortality by 90%.

And that's to say nothing of other advantages of kicking the can down the road, like higher temperatures decreasing transmission, doctors developing improved treatment protocols, and even a vaccine.

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