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Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

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Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#71

Post by steelframe »

I live 1 mile from Evergreen Hospital and 3 miles from the Life Care facility, and I'm immunocompromised. Most of my B lymphocytes and a bunch of my T helper cells are gone. In the past couple of days 7 immunocompromised people within walking distance of me were killed by this thing. I don't think I'm in hysteria, but I sure as hell am not leaving my house until I can be convinced that it's under control in my area.

So far it would seem that when COVID-19 finds its way into a care facility for the sick and/or elderly, it incubates for a few days and then starts killing people left and right. And some of the best hospitals in America (e.g., Evergreen and Harborview) can't save them.

We've seen what does and doesn't work in places like Japan, Korea, and Italy. Meanwhile most of the schools around here are still open and the workers transferring suspected COVID-19 patients to ambulances are using only loose-fitting face masks as PPE.

I feel like we're collectively failing an open-book test right now.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#72

Post by wcoenen »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #6
m23khan wrote: post #4

I will counter: How can you not feel bit of panic when you see coronavirus cases being reported daily from all parts of the World where travel is common or where there is large population? Then you have excellent leadership in Iran which knowingly hides their coronavirus situation and thus have exported the virus to poor and incapable places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq? Heck, compared to Iran, even Pakistan is b…

Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form ( I thought it was logarithmic even before yesterday). The amount of casualties seem to be in control. Okay, Iran is acting stupid. But we don't even do business with them. Tourism is minimal. Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old)

> Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form

That's the global numbers, which are still dominated by China. In China there may have been a real slowdown thanks to draconian measures.

But have a look at the WHO numbers excluding China. It's definitely still exponential. The doubling time has even been shrinking. My plot:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei...

Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#73

Post by viewer5 »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #42
outside1234 wrote: post #15

I don't know - a 15% mortality rate for 80+ year olds is pretty bad. Or do their lives not count? Or are we not responsible for trying to slow the spread?

and it's up to around ~6% - 10.5% risk for those with a precondition. If this estimate[0] turns out to be correct, everyone will either have been directly affected by loss of somebody, know somebody who lost someone, or are dead themselves. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE confirmed cases | DEATH RATE all cases Cardiovascular disease | 13.2% | 10.…

Why is diabetes a risk factor?

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#74

Post by tlrobinson »

bjourne wrote: post #47
moultano wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, you can't really say the author can't assess the situation because of a lack of expertise, and then immediately assess the situation with a lack of expertise. This is the assessment of the WHO, not mine. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

Where in the report does it say that "cases have declined in China ONLY BECAUSE OF the extreme measures"?

"China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic."

"China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response."

I don't think they could say it much more clearly.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#75

Post by smt88 »

calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

1b) Don't touch your face

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#76

Post by 7402 »

calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

Does this contradict 4) above? I don't have the expertise to judge, but the plain sense of the words suggests it does.

Persistence of coronavirus on inanimate surfaces [0]

Most data were described with the endemic human coronavirus strain (HCoV-) 229E. On different types of materials it can remain infectious for from 2 hours up to 9 days.

[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019567012...

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#77

Post by wmil »

titanomachy wrote: post #66
calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

> 4) The virus doesn't last long on dry surfaces, hot weather (bumped up the heat in house by a few degrees, yet comfortable enough). What's your source for this? What temperature is required to see this effect? How sure are you that your house is hot enough?

I haven't heard about heat before, but generally for the flu high (50%) humidity is very helpful.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#78

Post by Supermancho »

bjourne wrote: post #47
moultano wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean, you can't really say the author can't assess the situation because of a lack of expertise, and then immediately assess the situation with a lack of expertise. This is the assessment of the WHO, not mine. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

Where in the report does it say that "cases have declined in China ONLY BECAUSE OF the extreme measures"?

> The cordon sanitaire around Wuhan and neighboring municipalities imposed since 23 January 2020 has effectively prevented further exportation of infected individuals to the rest of the country.

This makes multiple observations to that end. What you consider "extreme" is a matter of how much you want to troll the topic.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#79

Post by Melchira »

hellofunk wrote: post #69
AlchemistCamp wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From where are you drawing that rate? I was speaking of Dr. Li Wenliang, aged 33, who was one of the initial 8 doctors to raise the alarm and try to stop this epidemic in Wuhan months ago. From everything I've read, both in Chinese and English, considerably more than 1% of the medical personnel at the front lines have perished.

I have read that the amount of exposure can be quantified, and it is possible to have a heavy dose of the virus -- which makes no sense to me -- and that healthcare workers are likely to receive these heavy doses due to frequent exposure. I always thought that once a virus was present in your system, it was there, like a boolean, not like a degree of infection. But apparently that is not true.

That idea is not true and in fact is extremely dangerous thinking. One example is HIV. It isn't a matter of having it or not having it, the viral load makes a big difference as to what symptoms someone may exhibit as well as how likely they are to infect someone else. If your viral load is low enough then the chances of infecting other people can get low enough to be considered non-existant. On the other hand if you expose yourself to more sources of HIV, it could increase your viral load and increase symptoms and complications associated with the virus.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#80

Post by LifeLiverTransp »

calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

UV-Light sterilizes alot of the virus if not in a huge droplet..
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