" 2) a population that follows orders"
maybe
My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
91–100 of 116 posts
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Afaik the primary method of transmission is believed to be saliva droplets in the air, expelled via talking, sneezing, or coughing. I think even a badly fitting mask would cut this drastically? Washing hands, avoiding touching your face, and other measures like these mainly help with what seems to be a far less common vector of transmission via surfaces and physical contact, where the virus only remains active for a…
You have it backwards. Droplets on surfaces are the primary transmission mechanism. The virus can survive on surfaces for hours. People then touch surfaces with their hands then touch their faces. Droplets in the air are a transmission mechanism but only for short range (3-6 feet) and only a danger from people who cough or sneeze on you. Respirators are effective at stopping that transmission but they are most useful…
Just for completion.
The current understanding is that the transmission mechanisms for Covid-19 are:
1. Contact 2. Droplets (particles > 20 microns), AND 3. Aerosol (particles The last one - Aerosol transmission - really adds to why this virus is so infectious.
Unlike balistic droplets, an aerosol plume can stay in a room for a very long time after someone coughs or sneezes. An aerosol plume can stay in the air long after someone flushes fecal matter down a toilet.
As a comparison aerosol transmission is what makes tuberculosis and measle so challenging in terms of containment and infection rate.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#93Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single d…
You know, some of us have family with underlying health conditions.
ok? Then do everything you normally would to avoid the flu.
There is no difference.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#94It's very hard to have an informed opinion on the virus. Different actors have different incentives. Medias try to sell ads, politicians want to be elected (or not held responsible), institutions like WHO are political (I don't really trust them after seeing their treatment of Taiwan) and have their own agendd, even experts have their own biases and are selected by medias. And we are all deeply biased, and tend to lo…
I am inclined to agree that it's difficult to form a good opinion here: the information available is horridly imperfect and even conflicting. I saw a news article a couple of days ago that said masks don't help prevent you from getting the virus, yet that very article included a WHO infographic encouraging the public to buy and wear masks. Alas...
The correct particle filter masks will obviously protect. The risk is that by providing that guideline you risk disruption in the supply chain.
There isn't enough world production and stock for the average joe to panic stockpile N95 masks.
The likely reason for this walking back in the recommendation is that 1) most people don't know mask sizes and how to fit a mask 2) if we have a limited stock then priority should be given to health workers who have to handle infected patients on a daily basis.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#95> The fact of the matter is that history has shown that even big death tolls have been much bigger emotional affairs than sustained economic and market affairs. My look into the Spanish flu case, which I’m treating as our worst-case scenario, conveys this view; so do the other cases. The world was a vastly different place when the Spanish Flu happened. Think of all the things we have today that we depend on to operat…
Also, I don't know all the market pressures of 1918, but it seems reasonable that the market was helped by the US winning the biggest war in the history of the world.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…
I really don't get the seeming dismissal of masks as a tool to contain spread. I understand that there's a shortage and healthcare workers are the priority (as they should be), but it seems to me that in theory the absolute fastest way to contain this would be to get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two. I keep seeing statements to the effect of "a mask only helps if you're already sick", but we do…
Masks are dangerous if worn improperly. They can create a warm moist environment on your face that promotes microbial growth. Also, the mask itself can get infected. Disposable masks aren't built to he reused and cleaned, so you can end up transferring the infection around on your mask if you reuse a disposable. Finally, the idea that masks reduce touching your face might be false, it's possible something itchy and irritating like a mask caused people to touch their faces more.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or it could be an indication that in some countries, the current weather enables exponential growth. This could rapidly change as it did in China.
Or it could be that the rest of the world is not flying back-and-forth between China or Italy
That’s not what we are seeing though. Australia and Singapore are good example of many cases from foreign origins but little to none community spread
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#98> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…
I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…
> The kind of critical thinking that helps you prepare for things like this seems to be in short supply. Last week people thought I was silly for stocking up on dried goods and essentials, this week every store around me is sold out of hand sanitizer, clorox wipes, and isopropanol.
It is still silly to stock up things you will most probably not need, and if you do, can still get if people like you would not unnecessarily stock up on them.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#99> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…
> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? We learned a lot from 2008. This is a different ball game. There is plenty of credit today. This is a supply shock. There are not applicable lessons from a credit crunch to a panic/virus induced supply shortage.
It’s possibly about to be a demand shortage soon as well.
Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
I work in finance. We learned a ton from 2008. The amount of new regulation and oversight that came as a result is insane. We will learn from 2020 too.
Does the added regulation, oversight help prevent the problems that led to the 08 crisis? Also curious to know what/how these learnings manifest themselves outside of goverment imposed regulations.
Yes, that is kind of a point. Outside of regulation the learnings manifest themselves in models that better capture tail, correlation, and liquidity risks.