Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies • Hacker News Board

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#151

Post by jp57 » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 5:48 AM UTC

knzhou wrote: post #100

jp57 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair, I guess, unless there are many unreported mild cases where infections don't result in pneumonia. Also, it's only been two months since christmas, not three, and many schools' winter breaks last into January, so maybe more like 1.75 months for it to spread from the hypothetical vector of returning Chinese students?

Sure, but just trace the exponential growth curve China started with two months ago, without the flattening out due to quarantine measures. If this were true, we would have more infections than China by now, people would have noticed.

In fact the first symptomatic case in Wuhan was identified on Dec 1, and by Jan 16 there were 41 cases of pneumonia identified. That is about the same span of time as between the end of winter break and today. And Wuhan is a dense city of 11 million while I live in a relatively sprawling American city of Alos, I don't know what typical air quality is like in Wuhan in the winter, but given what I've heard about Chinese cities, more severe impact of respiratory symptoms in China seems plausible too.

In any case, I agree that there's a fair amount of uncertainty, but a verdict of "certainly not" seems unwarranted.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#152

Post by simonh » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 7:41 AM UTC

eqdw wrote: post #149

simonh wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the last 3 years the CDC funding for participation in international epidemic detection and management programs was cut by 80%. In addition the several most senior positions responsible for pandemic preparation and response were cut. The budget proposed just a few weeks ago again included significant cuts in CDC funding, so the governments eye has not been on the ball for quite some time. Having said that you’re…

What differences in behaviour would you have expected to see in the CDC if their budget wasn't cut? I'm not seeing it. This thing spreads too fast to meaningfully stop it, China, Korea, Singapore, Japan, are all examples of this

Understanding the disease quickly and slowing down the spread of the disease is incredibly valuable work. Knowing more about it lets us prepare more effectively. If we can reduce the rate at which it spreads, that gives us more the time to prepare for it by training staff and building up stockpiles. Also even if the number of cases ultimately stays the same, if they are spread out over a longer period that means the number of patients needing care at any one time can be dramatically lower, reducing the strain on the health care system and allowing more resources to be devoted to the care of each patient.

The CDC, or some agency in each country anyway, has four roles in this I think.

The first is as part of international monitoring, research and co-ordination efforts. Pandemics are by definition international phenomena and the countries they are most likely to start in are the ones with weak governments or health care infrastructure. This is the first line of defence.

The second line of defence is advice and information, supporting other government institutions and agencies in co-ordinating their resources. Medical expertise is needed to support border control, diplomatic efforts, internal transit networks, government policy, law enforcement, logistics, the list is endless. These all have a role to play in limiting the transmission of the disease and preparing for the eventuality that is reaches populations. They all need expert advice and that advice needs to be prepared in advance and consistent.

Thirdly if the disease does take a grip, co-ordinating local and regional medical resources and efforts. Collecting data from health care networks to track the disease and direct resources where they are needed most, and ensure those resources are used in the most effective and efficient way possible.

Finally, research. This is a long term commitment to developing new equipment, treatments and techniques. This, and all the previous functions operate at the national or even really international level and can't effectively be progressed by fragmented regional or local health care systems. If it's not the CDC it needs to be somebody.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#153

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 9:08 AM UTC

pbourke wrote: post #142

akvadrako wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the log graph on that link it’s clear it won’t get 50000x more severe unless the course drastically changes.

Looks like doubling every 5-6 days. So a million cases in 35-40 days if trend continues?

[deleted]

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#154

Post by mercer » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 10:08 AM UTC

pmlnr wrote: post #77

lrem wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having ubiquitous, reliable access to good VC doesn't eliminate the need to travel. Humans communicate so much better face to face. Source: I work in Google, spending up to half of my working time in VC. Still need to hop in a plane when something is important enough.

> Humans communicate so much better face to face. No, they don't. They communicate more, but not better.

It depends.

I find that the lack of massive volume of communication that is face-to-face can be beneficial, but often it needs to be more structured. Without this structure, non-FtF communication is just FtF without the nuances.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#155

Post by learc83 » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

pmlnr wrote: post #65

learc83 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My brother's wife is also an ESL teacher. She had multiple students who traveled home to Wuhan during the winter break. Shortly after school starting she came down with a cold, gave it to my brother, and he had a pretty bad cough for a month. He's just now getting over it.

Last winter in Cambridge, UK, both me and my wife went through something labelled the Queen's Cough. In theory, that was an adenovirus: apart from the brutal cough that got worse if you rested and layed down, it regularly resulted in inner ear inflammation. We suffered from it for nearly a month, we had to take mild tranquilizers - valerian extract - to fall asleep, only to get up coughing for 10-20 mins non stop in…

Yes, obviously.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#156

Post by tim333 » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 5:51 PM UTC

daenz wrote: post #70

Personally, I believe most people should just accept that they are going to get COVID-19. It's going to get spread around, and it's not containable. You're likely going to get it. That's the bad news, but the good news is that we have immune systems and we know how to take care of each other and ourselves. Yes it's going to kill some people, no it is highly probably not going to kill you. People will be sick and goin…

I think the experiences of places like Singapore and Vietnam indicate containment is possible and we shouldn't give up yet. I wish the US would do more testing and quarantine those who have it. (Singapore has gone down from 56 active cases to 32, Vietnam from 16 to zero in spite of being a major travel hub for China and next to China respectively).

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#157

Post by hnarn » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 6:41 PM UTC

tristanj wrote: post #141

hnarn wrote: post #108

If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of the regular flu. Why are people spreading these types of news and commenting on them like it's the end of days? We may yet see a severe pandemic in our time but I don't see anything indicating this would be it, especially not since lethality goes down with spread. The biggest concern so far people should have regarding this virus is what it'…

> If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of the regular flu. That does not pass the smell test. According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were an estimated people 14.4 million cases of the flu for people 18-49 years old, of which 2,803 died. That's a fatality rate of 0.02%. The latest fatality rates coming out China show a 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for that age group. Which is…

I think you're correct, so I apologize.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#158

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Mar 01, 2020, 11:35 PM UTC

cheeze wrote: post #2

Amazon recently announced that all non essential work travel is cancelled. Friend who works there said they are taking it very seriously - any "essential" travel must be approved from the highest levels. They also announced that interviews will be conducted via VC going forward during the outbreak. I wonder if they 'shut down' campus and encourage everybody to work from home after this, self quarantine kind of thing.…

[deleted]

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#159

Post by jp57 » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 3:47 AM UTC

catblast wrote: post #95

jp57 wrote: post #36

Is it possible that the virus has been circulating in the states since Christmas or earlier? I live in the states, though not in Seattle. My wife's best friend teaches ESL at a major university. She has several Chinese students in her class who went home over the semester break in December and January. In mid-to-late January, the teacher, her husband, my wife, and I all came down with the "flu" in swift succession, w…

> We just assumed flu because what else could it be? The by far most likely scenario? Not the flu, but any one of the numerous upper respiratory viruses (hundreds but likely rhinovirus) that cause the “common cold” Notably absent from your description of symptoms is fast onset weakness and body aches. Colds can cause short high spiking fever though.

It was not a cold. Nor was a cold the most likely scenario. I've had plenty of colds.

I felt okay in the morning and was in bed shivering by dinner time. My wife reported body aches. They are not typical for me even with flu, but I was on ibuprofen almost the entire time anyway. I had a fever for four days, and felt unbearably horrible as soon as the ibuprofen would start to wear off.

There was nothing "rhino" about this virus. None of us had any nasal congestion.

If my wife hadn't started to feel somewhat better when she did, I would have taken her to the hospital for pneumonia. But it's lucky that she did start to feel better when she did because almost as soon as she was up I was down. Still, even through the next week or so when she was up and moving around again she said she never really felt like she was breathing quite right.

The cough was different than any cough I've had before. Since my nose and sinuses were clear, there was no drainage from my nose and sinuses into my chest. It was all originating in my chest.