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Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

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91–100 of 159 posts

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#91
post #45

When is it time to start freaking out? I have a friend who may be starting to unhinge a little bit. Whereas I have some sort of stoic “this is completely out of my control and will happen or it won’t” response that is probably not that much more rational.

If you're healthy and under the age of 50, the most you need to be doing is stocking up on two weeks of shelf-stable food for riding it out.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#92
post #58
post #36

Is it possible that the virus has been circulating in the states since Christmas or earlier? I live in the states, though not in Seattle. My wife's best friend teaches ESL at a major university. She has several Chinese students in her class who went home over the semester break in December and January. In mid-to-late January, the teacher, her husband, my wife, and I all came down with the "flu" in swift succession, w…

Almost certainly not. If it had been around for three months, with no control at all, it would be extremely obvious by now.

That's fair, I guess, unless there are many unreported mild cases where infections don't result in pneumonia.

Also, it's only been two months since christmas, not three, and many schools' winter breaks last into January, so maybe more like 1.75 months for it to spread from the hypothetical vector of returning Chinese students?

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#93
post #25

First posted this on another article before seeing this one. Not much information in this article, but given they only just reported new cases that makes me wonder if this person didn’t come to a hospital until they were in severe condition - probably because they had no idea it was coronavirus and were thinking “it’s the flu, it’ll pass.” If so it likely means many more cases in the community than we currently know…

The fact that symptoms are mild in the vast majority of cases and there have now been a couple severe cases positively identified basically guarantees that we have widespread community transmission at this point. Even among people with health insurance, the costs of visits combined with the likelihood of being told "it's viral, just wait it out" mean that many people simply won't bother with going to get a diagnosis…

And it's not even just disincentives, right? If I feel bad but not deathly ill, I don't want to go to the doctor in the first place; I want to lie in bed, where I have Youtube and crackers and there's nobody around to infect.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#94
post #70

Personally, I believe most people should just accept that they are going to get COVID-19. It's going to get spread around, and it's not containable. You're likely going to get it. That's the bad news, but the good news is that we have immune systems and we know how to take care of each other and ourselves. Yes it's going to kill some people, no it is highly probably not going to kill you. People will be sick and goin…

There are 86k confirmed cases globally. That’s 0.001% Why would you think most people will get it?

The number of cases per day outside of China is still growing exponentially:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

Until that changes it’s a fair assumption that a lot more people will get it

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#95
post #36

Is it possible that the virus has been circulating in the states since Christmas or earlier? I live in the states, though not in Seattle. My wife's best friend teaches ESL at a major university. She has several Chinese students in her class who went home over the semester break in December and January. In mid-to-late January, the teacher, her husband, my wife, and I all came down with the "flu" in swift succession, w…

> We just assumed flu because what else could it be?

The by far most likely scenario? Not the flu, but any one of the numerous upper respiratory viruses (hundreds but likely rhinovirus) that cause the “common cold”

Notably absent from your description of symptoms is fast onset weakness and body aches. Colds can cause short high spiking fever though.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#96
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concern is people have not been taking this seriously for the past two months. This has resulted in the US being on the back foot and only acting in a reactive manner. The CDC has fallen flat on its face and now state public health departments need to try to pick up the slack. I hope they do. Other countries are already trying to slow down spread via cancellation of events and closures of schools. The same needs…

> The concern is people have not been taking this seriously for the past two months. This has resulted in the US being on the back foot and only acting in a reactive manner. The CDC has fallen flat on its face and now state public health departments need to try to pick up the slack. I hope they do. Oh please. There's likely absolutely nothing the CDC could have done to prevent it from entering and spreading within th…

Over the last 3 years the CDC funding for participation in international epidemic detection and management programs was cut by 80%. In addition the several most senior positions responsible for pandemic preparation and response were cut. The budget proposed just a few weeks ago again included significant cuts in CDC funding, so the governments eye has not been on the ball for quite some time.

Having said that you’re right that the CDC and health systems in general have mainly and advisory and coordination, rather than a direct role in preventing the spread of a disease. However they need to have the funding, focus and senior representation in order to do that quickly and effectively.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#97
post #70

Personally, I believe most people should just accept that they are going to get COVID-19. It's going to get spread around, and it's not containable. You're likely going to get it. That's the bad news, but the good news is that we have immune systems and we know how to take care of each other and ourselves. Yes it's going to kill some people, no it is highly probably not going to kill you. People will be sick and goin…

There are 86k confirmed cases globally. That’s 0.001% Why would you think most people will get it?

Because it's spreading exponentially and its incubation period is up to 1 month. You should watch the CDC press conference given a few days ago[0]. Officials are not talking in terms of "if", they're talking in terms of "when."

0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNV8HYI126U

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#98
post #79
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having ubiquitous, reliable access to good VC doesn't eliminate the need to travel. Humans communicate so much better face to face. Source: I work in Google, spending up to half of my working time in VC. Still need to hop in a plane when something is important enough.

how many GVCs do you have where people are connecting from their desk or rooms on different floors of the same building? It happens a lot. Can’t be that bad.

It's not that it's impossible to communicate through GVC, but most people interact very differently with those they only know through a screen vs. those they've met in person.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#99
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The concern is people have not been taking this seriously for the past two months. This has resulted in the US being on the back foot and only acting in a reactive manner. The CDC has fallen flat on its face and now state public health departments need to try to pick up the slack. I hope they do. Oh please. There's likely absolutely nothing the CDC could have done to prevent it from entering and spreading within th…

Over the last 3 years the CDC funding for participation in international epidemic detection and management programs was cut by 80%. In addition the several most senior positions responsible for pandemic preparation and response were cut. The budget proposed just a few weeks ago again included significant cuts in CDC funding, so the governments eye has not been on the ball for quite some time. Having said that you’re…

Care to explain what "on the ball" would realistically look like for this specific situation we are in right now? Because everyone else seems to be avoiding the question.

Re: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies

#100
post #92
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost certainly not. If it had been around for three months, with no control at all, it would be extremely obvious by now.

That's fair, I guess, unless there are many unreported mild cases where infections don't result in pneumonia. Also, it's only been two months since christmas, not three, and many schools' winter breaks last into January, so maybe more like 1.75 months for it to spread from the hypothetical vector of returning Chinese students?

Sure, but just trace the exponential growth curve China started with two months ago, without the flattening out due to quarantine measures. If this were true, we would have more infections than China by now, people would have noticed.
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