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I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

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Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#81

Post by rhynie »

war1025 wrote: post #55
mrspeaker wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a time where it would be preferable to live somewhere that has good free/cheap health and social systems: if you're sick, you stay home and there are limited social or financial repercussions. So many people where I am will just "soldier on" because they have no choice.

There's a difference between going to work when you're sick because "you have to" and going to work when you're sick because "you feel mostly fine". This is a virus that in it's milder forms generally just causes a cold. I've never stayed home from anything because of a cold. Colds are just a fact of life. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

You never stayed home with a cold? Your co-workers, if they could identify that it was you all those times getting them sick, would like to have a word with you.

Is this going to become like the anti-vaxx shit? Demanding freedom to get everyone around you sick, no matter the illness? Do we now have 40% of the US thinking it's a conspiracy that people infect each other with disease or something?!!?

Are showers now an uncool thing? Soap, are we gonna go backwards on soap due to some insane conspiracies peddled by sub-humans? Is this how humanity ends, in an irrecoverable stupid-spiral?

Thanks for always spreading those colds you had throughout your life. I am suuuuure everyone was only ever affected by it in exactly the same way it affected you (ie, you could still go into work). I mean, empathy is for suckers, am I rite?

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#82

Post by adnzzzzZ »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #49
adnzzzzZ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The media mostly ignored this story for 1 entire month despite its constant seriousness and despite it being clear that it was the biggest event of the year so far. Only this last week has it picked up on it. For people who have been following it from the start that fact was used as evidence that it was an actually serious problem given that the media was constantly downplaying it or just ignoring it. In regards to t…

So, my son had a really bad cold that resulted in an infected lymph node and a course of antibiotics. They never ran a test for covid-19. So, how do we know that we have anywhere close to the right number of total patients? Do you have any citations for these high numbers? Some statistical skepticism is important in matters of public concern.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v... This is a paper that looks at 50k Chinese patients and 18.1% of them are considered "severe cases", which China has been using to mean needing special care in the hospital.

And based on a WHO official's statements they found no evidence that there was a big number of unreported cases in China. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-butt..., https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/123233479099875328.... Which would mean that these numbers coming out of there are likely more correct than wrong.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#83

Post by haunter »

eddyg wrote: post #34

R0=2.2 and CFR=2.5% is all you need to know to realize this is not the “seasonal flu”. Look at the visualizations in this article[0] that compare the average number of people infected by each sick person and the fatality rate of various historical epidemics. [0] https://nyti.ms/38Xc1ho

Still hard to believe to me that with the current numbers at least 30 million people will die. And we are not even at 3000 yet.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#84

Post by praptak »

bart_spoon wrote: post #80
praptak wrote: post #41

Humans are bad at gauging low probabilities. I for one cannot wrap my head around the actual badness of an event that has 2 percent chance of getting me killed. Taking the "average" approach, i.e. 2% loss of my expected remaining life time doesn't seem very good. # Yup, I know getting the virus is more than just a chance to die - you possibly infect others, get quarantined, etc.

Part of the reason humans are bad with probability is because they are bad at conditional probabilities. There is likely much less than a 2% chance you die from this. First that is assuming you will catch this disease. Even the most gloom and doom projections I’ve seen are saying that this virus will infect 40-70% of the worlds population. Which means the chance that you catch this and die from it is more like 1-1.5%…

By the "event" I neant specifically contracting the virus. The practical question is how far should I go to prevent getting it, which obviously depends on how bad this is.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#86

Post by Medicalidiot »

bart_spoon wrote: post #50
Medicalidiot wrote: post #22

This is dangerous. Take every precaution you can not to get infected for as long as you can and that you don't infect anyone else. This is not the flu. The flu makes you more susceptible to a material pneumonia and that's how it kills. SARS-CoV-2 is NOT the flu. COVID-19 is the disease, by the way. Here is the list of complications: -ARDS in 29% (Acute respiratory distress disease, this needs mechanical ventilation t…

Your numbers aren’t matching other published statistics. For one, 81% of cases are considered mild. I don’t know how that is supposed to square with your statistic that 30% of patients need mechanical ventilation to survive. I agree that the disease is something to take seriously, but pushing incorrect information to fear monger is just wrong.

These are the most common complications that leads to death. The clinical presentation is very different here. And yes, my source backs everything I said.

Also, the Lancet is one of the most respected medical journals in the world. I'm giving your primary literature that I took from the current medical guidelines from what's published. I'm a medical student and, although not a board certified physician, I'm going to be apart of the care team that is going to be diagnosing this.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#87

Post by rndgermandude »

obmelvin wrote: post #38
tyfon wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think after the success of the media in respect to this virus (massive amounts of clicks and TV view time), I firmly believe that every new flu will have it's own name and similar coverage from now on. They just made too much money off this, fear is a big seller.

This is about 20x deadlier (rate, not absolute numbers) than the seasonal flu as of midweek (numbers may have changed a bit in last few days). It is a more apt comparison to compare to the 1918/19 Spanish flu than the seasonal flu. edit: yes, I know the age breakdowns of deaths. But young people can still transmit the virus to their elderly loved ones etc. I don't understand why people are dismissive about the fact t…

It's not. This season's flu is linked to killing 14,000 people in the US alone (according to the CDC), corvid-19 has been diagnosed in 2,835 deaths worldwide.

The death rate is about 0.1% for a normal flu (0.05% for the current season) and corvid-19 about 3.4%[1]. So it is indeed a lot more deadly than the flu for those who contract it, which makes it important to prevent infections. And as pointed out elsewhere, the vast majority corvid-19 related deaths happen to the elderly (tho the same is true for the flu).

[1] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

That number is skew by the Chinese Hubei Province, the epicenter, which was hit first and hardest and most widely and reported a death rate of ~4.1%, while other Chinese provinces reported a death rate of ~0.8%. The death rates for most other nations are not meaningful because of the tiny number of infections so far. South Korea, with 3,150 cases and 21 death had a death rate of ~0.7% so far, Italy at 889 infections and 21 deaths a rate of ~2.3%

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#88

Post by haunter »

Medicalidiot wrote: post #86
bart_spoon wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your numbers aren’t matching other published statistics. For one, 81% of cases are considered mild. I don’t know how that is supposed to square with your statistic that 30% of patients need mechanical ventilation to survive. I agree that the disease is something to take seriously, but pushing incorrect information to fear monger is just wrong.

These are the most common complications that leads to death. The clinical presentation is very different here. And yes, my source backs everything I said. Also, the Lancet is one of the most respected medical journals in the world. I'm giving your primary literature that I took from the current medical guidelines from what's published. I'm a medical student and, although not a board certified physician, I'm going to…

What's with this dismissive attitude?

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#89

Post by Medicalidiot »

nostromo wrote: post #56
Medicalidiot wrote: post #22

This is dangerous. Take every precaution you can not to get infected for as long as you can and that you don't infect anyone else. This is not the flu. The flu makes you more susceptible to a material pneumonia and that's how it kills. SARS-CoV-2 is NOT the flu. COVID-19 is the disease, by the way. Here is the list of complications: -ARDS in 29% (Acute respiratory distress disease, this needs mechanical ventilation t…

Panicking is also dangerous and has real costs. How about we agree to be diligent but also not overreact.

Right now the Deaths/(Deaths+resolved) is 8%, which is on par with SARS in 2002-2004. This affects most demographics, but mostly the elderly. I'm not here to advocate for panic, but we need to take this very seriously now while the outbreak is still young. The more we can slow this the less dangerous the virus will become.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#90

Post by war1025 »

rhynie wrote: post #81
war1025 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between going to work when you're sick because "you have to" and going to work when you're sick because "you feel mostly fine". This is a virus that in it's milder forms generally just causes a cold. I've never stayed home from anything because of a cold. Colds are just a fact of life. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly.

You never stayed home with a cold? Your co-workers, if they could identify that it was you all those times getting them sick, would like to have a word with you. Is this going to become like the anti-vaxx shit? Demanding freedom to get everyone around you sick, no matter the illness? Do we now have 40% of the US thinking it's a conspiracy that people infect each other with disease or something?!!? Are showers now an…

> Thanks for always spreading those colds you had throughout your life.

Oddly enough, I heard a man on the radio speculate that the reason kids seem to be less affected by this than expected is because they have terrible hygiene and have built up immunity to many other coronaviruses floating around out there, giving them a leg up.

But also I think we must have different definitions of what a cold is.

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