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How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

smithsonianmag.com

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Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#61

Post by sadfev »

vikramkr wrote: post #50
sadfev wrote: post #44

Here comes the fear mongering. We are far better equipped to handle epidemics and pandemics now than 100 years ago.

Part of that is rapid transfer of information though - I could argue that the ability to rapidly spread fear of the disease to get people to worry and change their behaviors helps make us better at dealing with pandemics than when the news and the government would push propoganda saying there's nothing to worry about. I don't know if I would argue that or complete believe that argument since I agree with you that a l…

Agreed it’s not cut & dry. We should put everything in context.

As crude as it sounds there haven’t been that many deaths. Yes this seems to have outbreaks in waves but that’s about the only scary part.

We should be alert but not anxious!

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#62

Post by duxup »

macintux wrote: post #32
PopePompus wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the CDC merely urged that all large gatherings be cancelled, that would probably result in the cancellation of 95% of them, with no constitutional implications.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

I'm pretty sure the CDC can "say" what they want.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#63

Post by briandear »

macintux wrote: post #32
PopePompus wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the CDC merely urged that all large gatherings be cancelled, that would probably result in the cancellation of 95% of them, with no constitutional implications.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

The CDC budget has not been cut.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/485025-ap-fact-checkers-f...

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#64

Post by arkades »

wincy wrote: post #15
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

For the USA at least, wouldn't imposing a ban rather than a recommendation be a violation of the Constitutional right to freedom of assembly?

There's an awful lot of case law to date that allows for public health departments to violate constitutional rights to address a public health emergency. The legal right to quarantine is pretty much predicated on "for the good of society, your constitutional rights are out the window."

I hope I don't sound critical of this. I'm not. I'm in favor of empowering public health departments, with accountability and oversight and judicial review, to do what is needed to prevent massive tragedy. I'm just putting it bluntly: our case law on this topic is reasonably well-settled, and one-sided, as pertains to epidemics. (Now, as pertains to vaccinating...)

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#65

Post by Loughla »

morelisp wrote: post #51
Loughla wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what you mean by this.

"Emasculated" is a bizarre word to use, but I assume it's in reference to Trump putting Pence, rather than anyone at the CDC or HHS, in charge of official messaging around COVID-19.

Ah, I've been on a politics fast for a few days, so I missed that.

Without devolving into an inevitable political shouting match, what would the purpose of that move be?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#66

Post by danso »

NikolaeVarius wrote: post #17
danso wrote: post #6

I read this article a few weeks ago when I fell down the rabbit hole of trying to figure out why the Spanish Flu was called the "Spanish Flu". I knew it didn't originate from Spain, but hadn't heard that the traditional consensus is that it likely started in Kansas, owing to the first detected case being in Kansas. The CDC has a variety of history pages [0] about the Spanish Flu. The main one acknowledges that there…

I don't think the Kansas source has any traditional consensus at all. It's just on the list of "possibilities" None of the sources indicate otherwise.

Maybe "traditional" is the wrong word; what I meant is that there doesn't seem to have been any discoveries that argue strongly against Kansas being the start of the outbreak. As the submitted article states:

> We cannot say for certain that that happened in 1918 in Haskell County, but we do know that an influenza outbreak struck in January...The report itself no longer exists, but it stands as the first recorded notice anywhere in the world of unusual influenza activity that year.

And later in the article:

> Although some researchers argue that the 1918 pandemic began elsewhere, in France in 1916 or China and Vietnam in 1917, many other studies indicate a U.S. origin. The Australian immunologist and Nobel laureate Macfarlane Burnet, who spent most of his career studying influenza, concluded the evidence was “strongly suggestive” that the disease started in the United States and spread to France with “the arrival of American troops.” Camp Funston had long been considered as the site where the pandemic started until my historical research, published in 2004, pointed to an earlier outbreak in Haskell County.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#67

Post by macintux »

briandear wrote: post #63
macintux wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

The CDC budget has not been cut. https://thehill.com/homenews/media/485025-ap-fact-checkers-f...

The truth is more complex.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump...

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#69

Post by tobltobs »

nostromo wrote: post #55
bcrosby95 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why officials haven't come out suggesting things like this. And to avoid non-mandatory travel. It's probably a bit late for this stuff from a containment perspective. But it would help reduce the r0. Speaking personally, I have to decide by mid March if we should take our trip to Legoland in San Diego. Right now I'm leaning towards "no". And I don't imagine the outlook will be much better in just 2 weeks…

Because they're balancing being extra-cautious with the serious risks of overreacting. The worst case scenario right now is that some people might lose their grandparents a couple years early -- which is obviously incredibly sad, but also not something worth crashing the world economy over.

> The worst case scenario right now is that some people might lose their grandparents a couple years early

Any sources for that theory?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#70

Post by nostromo »

tobltobs wrote: post #69
nostromo wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they're balancing being extra-cautious with the serious risks of overreacting. The worst case scenario right now is that some people might lose their grandparents a couple years early -- which is obviously incredibly sad, but also not something worth crashing the world economy over.

> The worst case scenario right now is that some people might lose their grandparents a couple years early Any sources for that theory?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
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